“Fail Mary” has replaced “Oust Doust” in Kogarah and Wollongong as the prevailing slogan.
It seems the writing is on the wall that the St George Illawarra Dragons coach and foundation player will get the chop any moment now.
But it isn’t fair. Not at all.
NRL coaches have a shorter career expectancy than bomb disposal technicians.
Of the 16 current clubs, six of them have coaches who have been in their roles for two years or less. Only six have been at their present club for five seasons or more. Seven of them have been head coach at another NRL club. Only four boast over ten years as a head coach of an NRL side.
Six of the current coaches – I’ll include Garth Brennan for the purposes of this examination – have been sacked by at least one club.
Put simply, it’s a mug’s job. Who would want to be a coach?
Only one of 16 can win each season and, as we know, it’s usually one of just five sides.
There are different lines set for failure. The most obvious is coming last in a season. The second is missing the finals. The third is worsening results.
Have a look at the current NRL coaching records.
| Coach | Club | Overall % record with the club | % Record at the club since 2018 | +/- % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Bellamy | Storm | 68.8 | 74.4 | 5.6 |
| Wayne Bennett | Rabbitohs | 68.4 | 68.4 | – |
| Trent Robinson | Roosters | 64.4 | 67.4 | 3 |
| Des Hasler | Sea Eagles | 59.9 | 63 | 3.1 |
| Ricky Stuart | Raiders | 49.3 | 53.5 | 4.2 |
| Steven Kearney | Warriors | 42.6 | 51.1 | 8.5 |
| Paul McGregor | Dragons | 48.1 | 51 | 2.9 |
| John Morris | Sharks | 47.4 | 47.4 | – |
| Michael Maguire | Wests Tigers | 47.4 | 47.4 | – |
| Ivan Cleary | Panthers | 45.3 | 47.4 | 2.1 |
| Anthony Seibold | Broncos | 42.1 | 42.1 | – |
| Brad Arthur | Eels | 46.9 | 39.5 | -7.4 |
| Nathan Brown | Knights | 25.3 | 39.5 | 14.2 |
| Paul Green | Cowboys | 54.2 | 34.9 | -19.3 |
| Dean Pay | Bulldogs | 32.6 | 32.6 | – |
| Garth Brennan | Titans | 30 | 30 | – |
For all of the vitriol being poured onto poor old Paul McGregor, his record is actually okay. He is far better than many of the other coaches. Yet the calls for the likes of Nathan Brown, Brad Arthur and Dean Pay to be removed are far less concerted.
Coaching the Red V is a tough gig for sure.
While the Dragons’ results have been disappointing this season, any coach would struggle if they lost their best forward and chief playmaker for large chunks of the season, if not all.
Jack de Belin and Gareth Widdop are star players. Take two players of that calibre out of any squad and they’ll likely struggle.
Imagine Boyd Cordner and Cooper Cronk out of the Roosters, Sam Burgess and Adam Reynolds out of the Rabbitohs, Daly Cherry-Evans and Jake Trbojevic out of the Sea Eagles, Wade Graham and Chad Townsend out of the Sharks, James Maloney and Viliame Kikau out of the Panthers, Cam Smith and Jesse Bromwich out of the Storm, and Ash Taylor, Ryan James and Jai Arrow out of the Titans.
Like Garth Brennan found out, the results might spiral so badly that you’ll get sacked.
Poor old Mary lost two central players and the results unsurprisingly spiralled. Now they are calling for his bald head on a plate.
(Photo by Matt Blyth/Getty Images)
It’s not fair. I reckon he’s a quite a good coach who’s had some crap luck.
There are four factors a coach needs to align if they are to succeed. Most don’t have all four at the same time and many just can’t get some of them.
So what are they?
Star players
Blame whatever you want – the coach, the administration, the referees, the NRL – but the reality is that if you don’t have superstar players, you are bugger all chance of being successful.
If you don’t have some quality stud bulls to surround your cattle, you just aren’t going to be a contender. In reality, you need a superstar player like Cam Smith, Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk, Daly Cherry-Evans, Sonny Bill Williams, Darren Lockyer or Andrew Johns.
Players who can do something special, inspire their team-mates, and terrify their opponents.
The problem is that there aren’t many of these players. Growing them is tough, retaining them is tougher, and buying them is harder still.
There are occasions when established stars are purchased – Cooper Cronk, James Tedesco, Sonny Bill Williams, Justin Hodges – but mostly they are grown.
If you are the coach of one of the 11 clubs who have regularly graced the pointy end of the season during the NRL era, the odds are you’ve struggled in this category.
Big-game experience
Once you get to the business end of the season, you need to have a lot of players who have played on the big stage.
The value of Origin, international and finals experience can’t be overstated. So your team must have either been building or recruiting well – or both – to have this factor covered. If your roster doesn’t have that experience, they are very unlikely to go far this year.
Meat and potato players performing well
With the exception of a few sides in the NRL era, every team always has a few meat-and-potato players who have to perform well if their side is to be truly successful.
These are honest toilers who are on the fringe of first grade. They will probably lack dynamism and/or have defensive flaws. If the coach can get these guys to perform at their best, it can be the difference between two good sides.
Luck
This is vital. You can’t win without luck. Whether it is injuries, suspensions, bounce of the ball or not getting 50/50s from the referees, bad luck can end your chances. There is very little a coach can do about it.
Those factors are the reality for a coach.
The term ‘Supercoach’ is used far too often. Of the current crop, only Craig Bellamy is worthy of it.
He’s got the runs on the board. He created Cam Smith and Cam Munster through his intense application to game plans and preparation. He grows his own.
How many of his Storm players were established stars when they first put on the purple? You can count them on one hand. He can squeeze blood from a stone. He can make filet mignon and potatoes au gratin from plain meat-and-potato players. He’s done it for years.
As a result, he’s always got lots of big-game experience. And through all their systems, planning and game management, they always seem to get the luck.
(AAP Image/Paul Miller)
Trent Robinson has done okay but he’s had some incredible players bought for him.
Wayne Bennett has grown many stars but many of them were in the Broncos stable with that massive feeder area to draw from and their incredible resources.
Des Hasler might not be popular down Belmore way but he sure is up at Brookvale. His results speak for themselves.
The rest of the coaches are all effectively scrambling for the scraps.
Poor old Paul McGregor has tried his guts out. He has given his soul to the club as player and coach. He has created a very competitive team but this year he just has had zero luck.
He lost De Belin before a ball was kicked and Widdop slightly after. He’s had to deal with constant injuries as well as a huge Origin player contribution. Things just haven’t clicked.
But go on, blame him for everything. Sack him, get a new person in and hope that they’ll make a huge difference.
However, the reality is that they won’t and you’ll have just scapegoated a good man over factors outside his control.
Pomoz
Roar Rookie
Except that Bennett has been coaching for nearly 30 years and consistently has a high winning percentage. During his Bronco years he rebuilt the side many times. That's not luck, that takes skill. Regardless of whether they have advantages in being the only side in Brisbane, the Broncos can still only field 17 players at a game, the same as everybody else.
Denis
Guest
Tim Gore, what does Mary have over you media types ? You are quick to slag Siebold & Brennan etc but McGregor get excuses from you guys .How close have you watched the Dragons decline since 2010 ? The Coach and his assistants are old boys and have no experience outside of junior reps and Illawarra league and they haven't learnt much since. Mary's tactics ( 4 up , 5 block play 6 kick and for god sake nothing risky like offloading or supporting the runner ) have obviously bored the rank & file in the team and he has lost the belief from the players. He supports journeyman like Latimore,maranta etc over our Pathways juniors and his team selections have been abysmal.This weekend for instance , why not pick some Canterbury cup players to see how they go ? He has no imagination and i could go on.He has been there for 6 years and only won one top 8 game ( some would say against type performance against the Broncos last year.) Over the past 20 years we have succeeded with 2 coaches, David Waite & Wayne Bennett.The common denominator : they are from outside the clubs nepotism culture. I could go on but the real issue here is the fish rots from the head so why in the world did the board renew him when he didn't have any other option to leave. Did it somewhat suit their agenda to keep mates together ?
terrykidd
Roar Pro
Bunney to some extent I agree with you but I have a theory that the coach, support staff or player list is not the root cause of their season fade outs. I reckon the problem lies in the fact that a lot of the player list live in Sydney but the training venue is in Wollongong. Now that's a hell of a commute 5 days per week and quite simply I reckon the players get tired of it. Getting to and from training becomes a drudge and players are no longer enjoying their footy which drops off that needed last 5% of performance. We all know that well performed teams are made up of players who enjoy playing the game. If that enjoyment drops off for whatever reason then the team performance drops off. Its just my opinion, but I reckon its something that the Dragons should have a close look at.
Doug Graves
Guest
Speaking about low standards for coaches, have a look at Ivan "Supercoach" Cleary. He's at a 47% winning record after about 12 seasons of coaching yet keeps getting long term gigs! He's won no minor premierships and no premierships. The only thing he has to show for 12 years of coaching is a runners up medal in 2011!
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
In what way is a 48% winning record after nearly five and a half seasons ok? You have very low standards for coaches
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Yes, + each year he would have had the team in the 8.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Tim, isn't 5 years enough opportunity? I really challenge anyone, in the last 40 - 50 years, has there been any coach at any club for as long as Mary, who has consistently delivered totally underwhelming results with a quality roster. I doubt it. Anyone else would have been axed long ago. Dragon fans in for a long and sad 2 years.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Oooo yes, Parra bought a winner there, Steve Edge was the major reason they won their first comp.
The Barry
Roar Guru
McGregor is a poor coach. He’s had six seasons in charge - far more than most coaches get Talented roster for at least the last four seasons - even minus Widdop and JDB, this lineup is better than most in the comp...should be regulars in the eight and pushing the top four and a premiership but... Only made the semis twice Never made the top four The Dragons style and structure of play is often terrible. They spent three of Mary’s early seasons playing slow motion second man plays ten metres away from the defensive line There’s no variation or change to style when they get in a slump in a season or during a game He’s use and selection of players is absolutely baffling at times They’ve twice blown brilliant starts to a season on his watch Recruitment and retention has been poor There’s no signs of improvement. If I was a Dragons fan I’d be wondering what happened to the last four years and scratching my head about what next year holds I’d be interested to know what are the signs that make you think McGregor is a good coach because I can’t spot them and why his luck has been any worse than any other coach...can’t see that either
Emcie
Roar Guru
Depends how legitimate the $1.2 figure is really (and I don't really buy it), but the fact the Broncs didn't put up much of a fight would suggest that it was too much whatever it was
Gray-Hand
Roar Rookie
Well, if he was responsible for committing $1.2million of the club’s salary cap to Ben Hunt, that really doesn’t speak well of his roster management skills.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Saints as a club are developing a strange sort of legacy. Provide heaps of players to winning NSW SOO teams but being unable largely to convert that in to titles or even grand finals. A while back it was Ryles , Timmins , Baily , Barrett, Gasnier , Cooper and co who did well in the rep teams but didn't live up to their potential in the NRL and now they have the core of the NSW pack and other reps but haven't given the title a shake at all. I'm not sure how Mary turns around the regular season fade outs but he had to do that two years ago , not next year. The one ray of hope comes from Ricky Stuarts effort at the Raiders. Maybe Hasler provides a second ray of hope because he was the worst coach in the comp in his last couple of years at the Dogs.
William Dalton Davis
Roar Rookie
iirc wasn’t Hodges voted most overrated by the players choice awards in RLW before heading back to Brisbane?
Emcie
Roar Guru
He did make a big deal about finally having the squad he wanted in the lead up to last season after Hunt's signing. It's entirely possible it's out of his hands and he's just being overly enthusiastic publicly, but he's certainly gone out of his way to pump up his squad.
Victoire
Guest
lol this is an astonishingly bad take. There's an article on this very website, posted yesterday, calling for Paul Green to be sacked from the Cowboys. In the period McGregor has been Dragons coach, the Green has taken the Cowboys to 2 grand finals, including a premiership. McGregor has ONE playoff win, and two top 8 finishes. It's not just this year he has failed - he's been in the gig for 5 years. The lame excuses this year don't really wash - he still had 5 Origin players, plus an England rep and they're 3rd last. Yet he is not only extended by his club, and protected in laughable articles like this.He doesn't have what it takes. Let him "try his guts out" somewhere else
Nick
Roar Guru
Tim, Your analysis explains 2019. Care to explain away 2014-2018? He has a career coaching record of 48%. In a season you need to have a better than 50% record for a team to make the finals. The last time it happened was 2015 (surprise, surprise the Dragons who went 12-12 + 2 byes). 8th finished on 32 points last year. 30 points the year before that. McGregor has a coaching record that suggests statistically he’s gonna get 24 and absolutely battle to do better than 26. 26 points don’t make the finals. He HAS to go. You are a stats man. You can explain some, but ultimately in the long run, they don’t tell lies.
BA Sports
Roar Guru
I think this is a solid point. Dragons assistant coaching staff over the recent years has included Head, Young, Hornby and Timmins and other than Head with the Draongs lower grades and Conrulla juniors, none have covered themselves in glory. Ex Dragons players have certainly had mixed results as coaches. Ryles and Fitzgibbon are the only ones to have had much success. Brown had some I suppose, but Riddell, White, Peters, now Baz - none have set the world on fire....
Jockstar
Guest
They should have dismissed DeBelin at the start of the season. Dragons have a top 5 roster but have a hopeless coach. Bellamy would have got a premiership with that roster.
Randy
Roar Rookie
Overrated or not, Hunt and Norman are origin halves and they have four origin forwards in the team. Third last on the ladder is simply not good enough looking in from the outside. That's on top of the fade outs of 2017 and 2018 and then the hopeless attack they had when Benji was there ( i am pretty sure McGregor was still coach back then). He should have been axed before Brennan imo.
Zavjalova
Roar Rookie
He had a chance. He had 5 years to make it work. And failed. Fail Mary!