Australia should not pick Nathan Lyon to give themselves the best chance of winning the third Ashes Test, beginning on Thursday.
With uncertainty around Steve Smith’s availability and England chasing a victory, it’s time for Australia to make a big move in a bid to retain the valuable urn with two matches to spare.
Lyon’s heroics to put Australia 1-0 up in the series were backed up with an unspectacular performance in the second Test at Lord’s.
In the second innings in particular, the 31-year-old was able to draw the edge of Ben Stokes’ bat a few times, but his dangerous deliveries were few and far between, which allowed the opposition batsmen to attack when they saw fit.
In the last five Test matches played at Headingley, spin bowlers have produced a combined total of 28 wickets for 1025 runs off 359.2 overs – an average of 36.60 runs per wicket, with an economy rate of 2.85 runs per over.
The only two outstanding performances by spinners came in 2014 and 2015 – Rangana Herath’s 3/59 off 42 overs and Mark Craig’s 5/121 off 57.5 overs respectively – and they have proven to be outliers in recent history.
While Headingley tends to produce good all-round conditions for all disciplines, the traditional, one-dimensional style of spin bowling has produced indifference.
What Herath and Craig had in common was the willingness to bowl slowly (around 80 kilometres per hour) with regularity, forcing the batsmen to wait, and an ability to produce effective change-ups.
As good as Lyon has become, being one of the most accurate and reliable spin bowlers in modern history, he has often been unwilling to bring his pace down below 88 kilometres per hour, preferring to bowl his quick off spin and utilising natural variation in the pitch rather than his own.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
The concern at Headingley, however, is that the track won’t necessarily break up as easily or as quickly as Lyon will hope in order for him to have an impact.
This is why Australia can afford to take advantage of this rare opportunity to go into a Test match without a recognised spin bowler.
Pending availability, Australia can head into the third Test with a four-man pace attack and have the better-than-average option of bowling Steve Smith or Marnus Labuschagne, too.
Both players are good leg spinners, with the latter more than likely to feature in the upcoming Test after bowling a lot over the county season.
With the forecast for Headingley appearing to be overcast and humid, part-time spinners are likely to be just as effective with the ball with more weapons to their overall arsenal than Lyon, or Leach for England.
Mitchell Starc and James Pattinson should come in for Lyon and Peter Siddle when the teams are announced on Thursday, with Australia taking on Jofra Archer’s genuine pace with its own brigade.
If Smith is ruled out, it makes even more sense for Australia to make these two changes, boosting their batting stocks and upping the ante with the ball.
Tim Paine showed in the second Test that Australia are more than happy to be tactically aggressive by bowling first and trying to make something of the shortened game.
If there is to be a legacy that comes out of this Ashes series for Australia, it should be that the team is looking to win constantly, rather than settling for anything less.
Australia can wrap up the Ashes by going all-out with pace.
Nathan Lyon might be Australia’s best bowler of the past few years, but leaving him out is the wildcard move that can bring the country great success.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
How did that work out for us? I know it was inept batting
matth
Roar Guru
On a different topic, the Guardian is reporting Smith has been ruled out of the third test.
Scumbags&Superstars
Roar Rookie
Good article. And while we're at it . . . why is Warner immune from the axe? His career stats against good opposition outside Australia are appalling.
Jeansyjive
Roar Rookie
Wouldn't drop Lyon or Siddle. Siddle has had about 6 chances shelled over the two tests. Surely we have learn't that English conditions aren't all about express pace. Yes Archer has bowled well but Broad and Woakes have been just as effective. Saying that the selectors definitely have some selection headaches
Dave
Guest
I too like your team Ken, but Mitch Marsh is hopeless. I like Khawaja and Harris up top. Maybe in keeping with article, we loss both openers and push Khawaja up and fill the lower order with another pace option Starc or Pattinson. I think Archer has changed the game, we need to be accept low totals and have another weapon bowling. The 4th and 5th day at the oval would have been a bit different is we had another quick option
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Might happen, but I think Carey has the advantage.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
That's a six letter word M.Marsh has never translated..
Nick
Roar Guru
Yeah, but Ben Stokes has something Mitchell Marsh lacks. Talent. You don't pick an all rounder because you have to. You pick one when you have the luxury of someone who can do the job at an elite level.
Bruce
Guest
Was the final day more of a 3rd day/4th day pitch due to all the rain?
KenoathCarnt
Roar Rookie
Although Starc has good bouncers Patto has shown better recent form and is quick anyway. He is also better with the bat and Aus desperately need every run they can get especially if Smith cant play.
Bruce
Guest
Not a bad lineup
Peter Warrington
Guest
and Paine is heading that way, and is a lesser batsman swings. roundabouts.
Larry1950
Guest
Seriously, Australia's best ever off spinner who won us a test just a week and a half ago, what are you on. Lyon has consistently taken wickets on so-called pace & seaming pitches and is integral to the balance of the team. He got 3 wickets in the first innings at Lords & copped a bit of stick in the second because of the one-day nature of the last day. After all, he's not Mouen Ali. Pattinson to return for the unlucky Siddle, Khawaja should open instead of Warner but won't & Labuschagne in for the unavailable Smith is all they can do because Warner seems undroppable for some reason. If Smith is passed fit, Marnus comes in for Warner.
max power
Guest
yeah, siddle is an all time great
Tony Hodges
Roar Rookie
Maybe they could pass the hat around the selection panel to cover the fine and missed match fee from the suspension Paine would cop for the slow over rate this sort of decision would cause, too
hauritz
Guest
A four prong fast bowling attack with Labuschagne handling the spin is tempting. Particularly if the Poms opt for a faster pitch to suit Archer.
JamesH
Roar Guru
And what isn't factored in here is that Lyon was basically bowling on a 3rd day pitch in England's second dig, given how much time we'd lost. Leach got a few to keep low because he's a skiddier, more English-style spinner, but neither of them were able to regularly find big turn. The pitch just didn't deteriorate enough. Even so, Lyon could still have had a few wickets in that innings if not for drops and poor non-reviews.
Boo-urns
Roar Rookie
Wade is a butcher with the gloves
Cameron Boyle
Roar Guru
Dropping a spinner looks sexy but the problem with it is that it assumes that all those fast bowlers are going to get wickets quickly enough to skittle the opposition. But what if that doesn't work? If England bat long, then you need bowlers capable of completing long spells to allow the quicks time to rest. Lyon is best placed to achieve that. As much as I like Marnus' leg-spinners as a rogue option, it's not something to rely upon to any great degree.
Rob JM
Roar Rookie
If labuchagne is in our top 6 batsmen then playing 4 quicks on a green top certainly becomes an option. I'd leave hazlewood and Lyon out and go pattinson cummins siddle starc for maximum batting competency!