No one had won two Rugby World Cups in a row until the All Blacks did it at the last tournament. Now, Kieran Read and his side are eyeing off an unprecedented third straight triumph in 2019.
With talent all over the park and lots of Cup-winning experience, New Zealand head to Japan as favourites, but not as short-priced as they were in 2015. Still, it will take a mighty effort from one of the other contenders to stop the men in black.
The squad
New Zealand Rugby World Cup squad
Forwards
Kieran Read (c), Scott Barrett, Sam Cane, Dane Coles, Liam Coltman, Shannon Frizell, Nepo Laulala, Atu Moli, Joe Moody, Brodie Retallick, Ardie Savea, Angus Ta’avao, Codie Taylor, Matt Todd, Patrick Tuipulotu, Ofa Tuungafasi, Sam WhitelockBacks
Beauden Barrett, Jordie Barrett, George Bridge, Ryan Crotty, Jack Goodhue, Rieko Ioane, Anton Lienert-Brown, Richie Mo’unga, TJ Perenara, Sevu Reece, Aaron Smith, Ben Smith, Brad Weber, Sonny Bill Williams
Steve Hansen named an imposing 31-man squad to defend their title. Captain Read is one of three players at his third World Cup, alongside Sam Whitelock and Sonny Bill Williams, while nine are at their second tournament. That means New Zealand’s squad have 15 winners medals between them. Only one other player in Japan – South Africa’s Frans Steyn – has experienced winning it all.
There were some notable omissions for the All Blacks. Ngani Laumape was overlooked in the midfield, while there was no room for experienced prop Owen Franks. Liam Squire wasn’t considered for selection due to injury, and Luke Jacobson was a late scratching after experiencing delayed onset concussion symptoms last week. He was replaced by Shannon Frizell.
Brodie Retallick has been taken to the tournament despite dislocating his shoulder in a Rugby Championship match against South Africa. He’ll miss the pool stage, but should be fit for the knockout matches.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Strengths
How long do you have?
Over the past four eight twelve years, the All Blacks have been the most dominant side in world rugby. Since the end of the 2007 World Cup, they’ve played 156 Tests. 134 ended in victory.
Watching this team win ad nauseam has become so accepted and, indeed, expected, that it’s probably desensitised us to what a brilliant historical anomaly they are. Even if we just look at their results this World Cup cycle, they’ve won 83 per cent of their Tests.
It’s lower than the combined mark for the past three, which is close to 86 per cent, but it’s still remarkable. It’s also better than that of the side which went into the 2011 tournament, which had nine losses in the preceding four years.
On the field itself, the All Blacks are the most complete team we’ll see in Japan. They’re impressive at the breakdown, stingy in defence and lethal in attack. They’re ruthless in closing out Tests, thanks to both their experience and depth of talent – there are plenty of Kiwi reserves who’d walk into the starting XVs of most other Test sides.
It’s their attack which is most imposing. Since the start of 2018, Hansen’s men have averaged almost 39 points per game, and their 15-9 loss to Dublin at the Aviva last year was the only match in which they scored under ten points.
That’s no great surprise when you consider the wealth of options at their disposal. Having to fit Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett into the same side would be a luxury for any other nation. For the All Blacks, it’s been a headache – although one that looks to be over considering how effective the two were against the Wallabies in Bledisloe 2.
It was always going to take some time for Mo’unga and Barrett to gel, but the Eden Park performance against Australia came in just their third Test starting together. The thought of them combining after an entire World Cup playing together is not a pleasant one for their opponents in Japan.
(Photo by Anthony Au-Yeung/Getty Images)
Weaknesses
The injury gremlin has reared its head at just the wrong time for the All Blacks. Liam Squire almost certainly would have been in the squad had he been fit all year, while Ryan Crotty, Jack Goodhue, Scott Barrett and Mo’unga all spent varying amounts of the Rugby Championship and Bledisloe Cup on the sideline.
It’s the injury to Brodie Retallick which is the most significant blow, and by some margin. When fit, he’s not just the best lock in the world, he’s the best player. So integral to the side’s success in 2015, Hansen will be desperately hoping the big second-rower is able to get back out on the park in Japan.
While New Zealand’s form this cycle has been imposing, their more recent results have left something to be desired, certainly by their lofty standards. Three of their six losses since the 2015 tournament have come since last September – including conceding a record 47 points to Australia last month in a 21-point defeat – and there’s also been a draw with South Africa in that time.
Every side to have won the World Cup in the professional era has had a drop-off in the year of the tournament. The All Blacks themselves had a remarkably similar Bledisloe Cup campaign in 2015, when defeat to the Wallabies in Australia was followed by a commanding win back on home soil. But the losses and draw have gone some way to dampening the sense of invincibility around the side.
The scrum is one area teams will look to target New Zealand, particularly the Springboks and England. It was suspect in the loss to the Wallabies, although admittedly rebounded well the following week.
The lineout, too, has been iffy with Dane Coles at hooker (and Retallick injured) but Codie Taylor has been more reliable and may get the nod over his more experienced colleague.
Related
Key player: Sam Whitelock
The All Blacks are hardly shy of influential players. Barrett, Mo’unga, Read, Aaron Smith and Sam Cane could all quite easily be selected here. But it’s hard to overlook Sam Whitelock.
A veteran of New Zealand’s last two campaigns, the second-rower has won every match he’s appeared in at the World Cup, a remarkable record for someone who’s played 14 tournament games.
His experience will therefore be invaluable. This is a man whose trophy cabinet is immense – there’s the two aforementioned World Cups, the last three Super Rugby titles which he’s captained the Crusaders to, plus oodles of Rugby Championships and Bledisloe Cups.
The All Blacks have been vulnerable – at least as vulnerable as the All Blacks ever get – over the past year, and there will be times in Japan when they’re genuinely tested. It might be against the Springboks in the first pool stage game, it might not be until the final, but whenever it is, having Whitelock stand up will make navigating any tricky periods easier.
With his locking partner Retallick out for the first half of this tournament, the 30-year-old will have a considerable amount of slack to pick up, particularly around the lineout. Not that that will be much of a burden for him. There are very few aspects of second-row play in which Whitelock isn’t world-class.
(AP Photo/David Rowland)
Verdict: Deserved favourites
It might be a little lazy to tip the All Blacks to win another World Cup. There’s good reason to do so though; this is the best rugby team in the world, despite what the world rankings say.
There’s far more genuine competition for the title this year, certainly more than what was the case in 2015. England look a genuine threat and only lost to Hansen’s men by a single point last year. The Springboks have split their last three games against New Zealand in both the results and margin. Ireland and Australia each defeated the All Blacks in the past 12 months, and Wales are coming off a dominant Six Nations grand slam.
Some would quite convincingly argue that, after two tournament wins on the trot, the All Blacks’ luck is bound to run out this time around. They can’t go on winning World Cup games forever, right?
That’s certainly the case, but right now they’d go into a match against any other Test side as favourites. And that is enough for us to back them in once again.
Prediction: World champions
Rugby World Cup previews
Scotland
Argentina
Australia
Ireland
Wales
England
South Africa
Shooter McGavin
Guest
Agreed his kicking when things aren't going well can be a big liability
Highlander
Guest
Sooooo many articles and podcasts writing the ABs off, but going by the odds very few of the authors are putting their hard earned down on it, both SA and England drifted out in the odds this week. But Hansen loves the ‘never been done before’ targets - a three peat is seriously unchartered territory, statistically unlikely - so we can claim the underdog status. :laughing:
KiwiHaydn
Roar Rookie
Over 300 caps on the bench, with Retallick and Goodhue still to come back!
moaman
Roar Guru
All in all I am feeling very upbeat about all this.BB at the back and Mo'unga at pivot spells danger for opposition teams who like to kick away possession. Crotty and ALB in midfield.Great.
Highlander
Guest
That looks like 10 changes from the starting XV vs SA in Wellington - with only Guzzler out being a step down, a very different picture for Rassie to plan for.
Chucked
Guest
what I do NOT want to see is Beauden Barrett kicking poorly and aimlessly down the middle of the field. He did this non stop in the first half of the Canes vs Jaguares semi final and the tactics were woeful. High kicks that chasers can get to yes, but this is one chink in his armour that im worried about immensely. he did it again on occasions in the two tests vs Wallabies and im not joking the oppositon was able to make 40-50metres advantage each and every time
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Agree with much of that Riccardo though Big Brodie unfortunately will not be on the ground (unless a ‘water-boy’)
One Eye
Roar Rookie
Bridge is no slouch in the air and Reece punches well above his size as well in that regard, given the forecast I am slightly surprised he is there and not on the bench with Bender starting. Also a bit surprised about Coles starting, especially after his brain fart recently - anticipating a bit of niggle at him from the Boks.
moaman
Roar Guru
Personally very happy with that although I would have started Taylor at 2. It is a side brimming with pace. Question mark for me will be how well that exciting back 3 will fare under a barrage of high balls? Sevu Reece and BB aren’t big men….on the other hand, the gauntlet has been laid down and those kicks will be punished if they aren’t accurate or chased correctly. We live in interesting times!
moaman
Roar Guru
AB starting xv Moody (41) 2. Dane Coles (64) 3. Nepo Laulala (20) 4. Samuel Whitelock (112) 5. Scott Barrett (32) 6. Ardie Savea (34) 7. Sam Cane (63) 8. Kieran Read – captain (122) 9. Aaron Smith (87) 10. Richie Mo’unga (12) 11. George Bridge (5) 12. Ryan Crotty (45) 13. Anton Lienert-Brown (38) 14. Sevu Reece (3) 15. Beauden Barrett (78) With Taylor (45) 17. Ofa Tuungafasi (30) 18. Angus Ta’avao (8) 19. Patrick Tuipulotu (25) 20. Shannon Frizell (5) 21. TJ Perenara (59) 22. Sonny Bill Williams (53) 23. Ben Smith (80) on the bench.
Puff
Guest
Interesting review For most of the lounge chair rugby judiciary the AB’s are the bench mark and whether we are comfortable with such statements or not. Past facts are there for all to scrutinize. Even if you don’t follow the code, never witnessed a match or live in some obscurer country, far from the fan fair in Japan. The NZ, AB’s appear to be that one connection most people recognize. The two major matches this weekend are between SA / AB’s and Fiji / Wallabies, although I believe it is more important for the Wallabies to fire a shot in anger. The two southern giants will be looking at the long game but no team has held the cup aloft from placing second in the pool. The AB’s have flair, inspiration and experience, the Bozs have grunt up front and the track will suit both sides. I’m more concerned about the Wallaby performance as their preparation has been somewhat ordinary and the Fijian boys will opt for physicality. So if there is complacency in Cheika’s selection criteria, Wales will make things extremely complex. I believe the darkness will continue to excite Japan and her guests, up until the final whistle of the final game.
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
Good post mate...
ohtani's jacket
Guest
The All Blacks have been talked down in the media a lot, which I think suits them. I would rate them a 50/50 chance to win the Cup. I don't think there's as much pressure on them this time around as there was in 2011 and 2015. I think most All Blacks fans realize that a three-peat is a far off bridge. It might be a different story if they crash out in spectacular fashion, but I think the challenge of trying to do the three-peat is exciting and something that should be embraced. I expect this weekend's match to play out like recent All Blacks vs. South Africa tests. I would be surprised if we saw markedly different tactics. The All Blacks may try a few things to counter the South African rush defense but for the most part I expect that the game will be won in the collisions. South Africa have a better kicking game than New Zealand at the moment and will test the All Blacks under the high ball. New Zealand have made a lot of errors against South Africa in recent tests and dug big holes for themselves. I am not 100% that the All Blacks can be clinical in this area on Saturday night, but they will definitely need to avoid some of the shockers we've seen in the past few encounters. Personally, I'll be interested to see whether South Africa attack with ball in hand or prefer to defend and force the All Blacks into making mistakes. And from an All Blacks perspective, I want to see ball retention and strong handling skills. I am sure they will kick it away aimlessly at times but continuity, offloading and getting over the advantage line always works well against the Boks' defense. I would rather see the All Blacks punch a hole in the line and offload behind the defensive line than kick into open space and open themselves up for the counter attack. Hopefully, the new-found injection of pace with the fresh wingers will make a difference to their attack.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
Ah bugger. Knew that was too good to be true. Thanks LP.
One Eye
Roar Rookie
I wonder how much it will help having so many Crusaders in the squad who have just completed the SR three-peat? Clearly not the same level but certainly some transferable mind sets. I think starting Taylor will give the lineouts more stability - 3 world class targets in Whitelock, Barrett and Read is still excellent and Savea was getting thrown into the air at Eden Park and I think he actually stole a throw. Personally I would be happier having Bridge on the wing in poor weather than Ioane and wouldn't be surprised to see Bender at 14 and Reece on the bench if it is indeed raining as forecast. There has been a particularly good analysis show in NZ called the 10/14 show and really broken down the way teams defend with a pendulum 15 and 9 sweeping and they have done a bit of work to show how having a non traditional kicker outside the 9/10 can impact this - basically, as soon as the ball goes past 10 the 9 goes into the line and the wings come up leaving only the 15 to cover (or some permutation of this). By adding the 2nd playmaker who can make an accurate kick decision when the wings are up and 9 in the line can create a huge amount of havoc at the back that isn't there when kicking from 9/10. I would also add Crotty into this - he has shown great class this year putting kicks through setting up Reece and Bridge/Ennor under similar circumstances. Of course, speed of ball from 9 will be critical - I am not as concerned about the pack, we know what they are capable of and the draw against SA was the first match on their journey to peaking for the play offs. Whatever happens, I'm picking a cracker - two teams caged for the past 2 weeks eager to lay down a marker!
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
No, but just remember there’s a fine line between genius and madness.
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Would it be rude to say no Fionn?
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
I actually agree, Neil. I feel more confident picking England by 10-15 than by 2-3, if that makes sense?
Neil Back
Roar Rookie
Poor scheduling foresight for Saturday's clash saw a dinner reservation cancellation that left me very unpopular in our house - but some games you just have to watch live! Team announcements awaited with bated. I'll let others speak for SA, but I worry about England's capacity to grind out tournament wins under Eddie, Riccardo. Sure he produced a 17 match unbeaten run, and a three game tour to Australia, but the 6N comes closest to a replication of a RWC, and he hasn't produced a grand slam since 2016, and that arguably wasn't really his side. The only English coach to pull that off in a RWC year was Woodward in 2003 ...and we all know what happened from there. If Eddie wants that appointment with the Queen, he really better have something behind the smug smile, because this stuff takes some navigating.
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
Morning Daniel. I'm pleased you referenced the three-peat odds as this is a long-shot by sporting standards and would make success that much sweeter. It is a good squad despite some essential personnel carrying niggles; I would have liked to see Squire on the plane, with respect to Shannon. He would add some height and mongrel in the back row which may be required against the Boks and Roses in particular. You mention the line-outs which have been average recently and. Hansen has gone for mobility. At set-piece and they will need to be at their best against the afore-mentioned packs considering the wobbles against the Wallabies. I can see pollard peppering our back three, especially if Bridge and Reece are picked as expected. How will they cope aerially in such an important exchange? The flip-side of those selections and the dual-playmakers is that they can get behind rush defenses and draw in wide defenders to create space on the edges. And there is no better counter-attacking unit in the game. Still, I confess to being nervous. Sam is an integral cog and a senior leader but for me the most important player will be Aaron Smith followed closely by big Brodie. If Aaron can give Mo'unga and Barrett front foot ball they will be hard to stop. His speed and pass will be vital methinks whereas Brodie is simply one of the best players in the game and adds so much in all his core roles. We're going to know a lot more come Saturday evening. Good read thanks.