The statistical truth: Roosters vs Raiders NRL grand final

My gut feel is the Roosters will be too strong. If the Raiders can weather the first half hour or so without letting the Roosters get away they’ll be right in it. But they can’t just sit back on their heels and absorb pressure. They need to get the balance right between stopping points and playing back at the Roosters. I don’t think the Raiders are without hope but they need things to go right for them. The Roosters don’t need as much to go their way to get the win. Anyway...go Raiders...!!!

Rudy, This so true. Only one Canberra player has played in a previous grand final. When I quickly looked this morning, every roosters has one previous GF under their belt, while Cronk has 8. Cronk will be the key. A GF is unlike any other game. Keeping your emotions in check requires guys around you who have been there, done that. Canberra have such poor GF experience. It will be a massive mountain for them to climb, just controlling their emotions.

The Raiders are in this game up to their ears. The Rooster are a very well drilled, team with some match winners but they're certainly not unbeatable. The biggest concern for me is Leilua and a couple of the other less experienced players ability to not have a brain fade. If they don't give up cheap possession to the Roosters, the Raiders certainly have enough smarts, power and talent in certain positions to win.

What side info do you have that they want it more?

I backed the raiders to win it a few months back so definitely wanting them to win… now that it is GF day, I am worried the roosters will turn it on and blow them off the park. There’s no doubt the Roosters are the better overall team, Raiders will need to produce their best 80 mins and also put some of the roosters stars off their game – they will need to be in the Tedesco, Keary, Cronk, etc all game and turn this into an arm wrestle. If this is allowed to turn into an expansive and high scoring game, the raiders won’t be able to outscore the roosters and it could be over quickly… has to be a tussle. The opening 20 mins of each half is the key, Canberra need be on top or at least contain the roosters during those periods. If the Raiders can do that, it will just add to the pressure already on the roosters as heavy favourites which could mentally have an impact if they aren’t running away with it…Canberra just need to roll with the momentum shifts, play smart footy and make every opportunity count. Anyways on the Canberra bus today so best of luck to you Tim and the green machine fans.

Plenty points towards the Chickens getting up in a fairly easy win. Good thing is that the competition has been often very unpredictable and I'm hoping that this continues and the Raiders get up with a 39 to nil victory. I've got a gut feeling of sorts that the Raiders are going to get on top of the Chickens and that will expose a few weaknesses that aren't so clear now. Raiders by 13.

Jimmy - before the game, any game, anything's possible!

And ya can’t underestimate big game experience, on the part of both players and the coach. Robbo will write history today. He hoodwinked the Storm last year and he’ll have a few tricks for Ricky’s boys today.

I'm guessing you must have put this piece together days ago Tim? You'd have been getting ready for the GF, this time yesterday. Good on you for treating us to stats backed by clear explanation. I hope your boys get up, only because, as a Dragon's supporter, I know what it's like to wait decades between premierships.

All 34 players will have desire. But to win, you have to be smarter, not just “want it”. When I was a young bloke, I had the desire to want sex as often as possible. Unfortunately, I wasn’t smart enough often enough, to know how to close the game. If only I knew then what I know now! But the knowledge is useless to me now. Like they say, you can’t put an old head on young shoulders. So let’s agree all the players will have desire. But the smarter players will have the confidence to trust themselves, their mates, & their systems. That will be the difference.

If the Raiders are in front with 15 to go it will definitely be 1969 again. The Raiders could do a very decent impersonation of the 69 Tigers if they had to.

Tim, The truth of a certainty is found often enough in the breech. So on that score, the Raiders are in this game. However, I expect the Roosters to win, & win well, for all the reasons you give, plus others. The grand final is theirs to lose, if they don't give the Raiders sufficient respect. You would think there are too many experienced players in the Roosters lineup to allow hubris or complacency to derail them. If the AFL grand final is any guide, where the experienced Richmond Tigers trounced the inexperienced GWS Giants on the grand final stage, then the Roosters will win, & probably win easily. For the Raiders, it's worth reminding them that 50 years ago, way back in 1969, through tactical superiority, the Balmain Tigers upset the so very hot, hot, hot Souths Rabbitohs. Although the Rabbitohs were more talented man for man, the Tigers won by playing smarter football. For the Raiders to triumph, Ricky Stuart will need to tactically outsmart Trent Robinson & his players give the Roosters no room to execute their expansive skills.

I don't think this is even going to be close. Roosters 13+ easy and the game to be over by half time with half the Roosters backline scoring tries. Weirdly I think Croker is going to have a great game....got him to score two tries.

I'm with you Taree. Love Tim's work and his support for the Green machine and I'm not surprised that the statistics suggest a Roosters victory but there are plenty of intangible factors that go towards a victory that you can't put a number on including ticker, desire, commitment, and mateship. The Raiders have the support of the whole Canberra community, surrounding rural areas and Raiders supporters scattered all over the country who have waited for years for this. And they will be playing for former players who experienced the good days and those that didn't. I just feel it is all building up to this win for the ages. It will come down to who wants it more and that will be the Raiders. Enjoy the game mate.

Go the Wolfpack another country Canada playing professional rugby league in the super league..

How do you measure that ? It purely an assumption or more likely, your desire. They all want it.

The definition of stats = "past performance is not an indicator of future performance". Sound familiar?

You can't quantify 'desire'. There is no stat on that. The Raiders have it, they'll want it more & will play accordingly.