Geelong has the greatest winning percentage of any club in this decade, yet only have one premiership to show for it after some dismal showings in September.
Geelong finished second in both 2016 and 2017, however, they were bundled out with ease by the Swans and the Crows before being minor premiers in 2019 and losing to the future premiers in Richmond.
Geelong had a topsy curvy type of trade period, losing superstar Tim Kelly to the Eagles before acquiring Jack Steven and Josh Jenkins from the Saints and Crows respectively.
Going deep into September is yet again expected for the Cats and going by recent history there’s nothing to suggest they won’t, but what goes up must come down and the Cats aren’t getting any younger.
Best 22
FB: Jake Kolodjashnij, Mark Blicavs, Mark O’Connor
HB: Zach Tuohy, Harry Taylor, Tom Stewart
C: Jordan Clark, Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan
HF: Brandan Parfitt, Esava Ratugolea, Luke Dahlhaus
FF: Gryan Miers, Tom Hawkins, Gary Ablett
FOLL: Rhys Stanley, Patrick Dangerfield, Jack Steven
I/C: Cameron Guthrie, Tom Atkins, Jack Henry, Quinton Narkle
Defence
Geelong statistically had the best defence in the competition this year, conceding the fewest amount of points of any team throughout the home-and-away season.
It’s hard to see that dropping away too significantly, however, one of Jake Kolodjashnij or Jack Henry might have to improve considering it is unlikely that Harry Taylor will play as well as he did last year due to his age and injury concerns.
The defence was led by Mark Blicavs, who had a tremendous year and showed himself to be one of the best defenders in the league, while Tom Stewart had another great year winning another All-Australian jacket.
There have been plenty of people suggesting that the Cats backline is too tall, but clearly, it’s working for them and the way they play. No small forward really got a hold of them last season and ironically it was the Tiger tall in Tom Lynch that snatched a grand final appearance from their grasp.
The Cats back six will continue to be one of the best in the competition in 2020 due to their relative youth and will hold the club’s finals fortunes in good stead.
Midfield
Even with the loss of Tim Kelly, the Cats still have one of the best midfields in the competition with superstars Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood leading the way.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Not only did the midfield rank first in goal assists and tackles per game in 2020, they completely stifled the opposition’s midfield’s ability to do anything constructive against them.
They conceded the fewest amount of kicks against them last year, the second-fewest amount of disposals against them per game and the fourth-fewest inside 50s against them which obviously helps out the back six in a major way.
Dangerfield was close to winning another Brownlow in 2019 and has at least a few good years left in him, Joel Selwood is the club’s leader and steps up in finals every year while guys like Mitch Duncan, Jack Steven, Cameron Guthrie and Gary Ablett complement the midfield beautifully.
Admittedly, the loss of a 25 disposals per game midfielder who kicked 24 goals last year and was arguably the best player on the ground in the preliminary final in Tim Kelly will hurt, but if Jack Steven can get anywhere near back to his best and guys like Guthrie and Jordan Clark improve, it’ll soften the blow.
Attack
The Geelong forward six is, without doubt, their biggest weakness. Admittedly, they ranked third in points per game last season, but a lot of that was to do with guys like Tim Kelly (24 goals), Patrick Dangerfield (27 goals) and Gary Ablett (34 goals) contributing in a big way.
Kelly isn’t there this year which hurts, Ablett is another year older and dropped away significantly in the second half of the year and they didn’t do anything to address their problems at the trade table.
Josh Jenkins was recruited for the Crows and could potentially play the majority of the season, even though he was very poor last year at Adelaide. The issue with them recruiting him is that I don’t think they can play all of Esava Ratugolea, Tom Hawkins, himself and Rhys Stanley in the same team.
They lack a dominant small forward when Ablett isn’t in the forward 50. Gryan Miers played well last year but is still largely unproven, while Luke Dahlhaus, Brandan Parfitt and Quinton Narkle are all more midfielders than small forwards.
The forward line is a clear issue during finals, displayed last year by them producing scores of 51, 88 and 66 in their three finals games.
If they don’t address the issues with their forward line in 2020, it’s hard to see the Cats reaching their ultimate goal of a tenth premiership.
Prediction
Geelong hasn’t missed finals for a very long time now and it’s hard to see that changing this season.
The nucleus of a brilliant midfield is still there with the likes of Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan and Steven while the defence will continue to be one of the best in the competition.
(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Whether Geelong can take the next step, like every team, will rely upon the likes of Clark, Narkle, Parfitt, O’Connor and Miers having breakout seasons.
It will be another good year to be a Cats supporter as they play in another finals campaign.
Predicted finish: sixth.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
We were down at half time because Geelong played very well and we were unable to impose our game style. This was rectified after half time as we ramped up the pressure and took control. Two goal turn arounds work both ways, interesting that you choose to isolate just one example. To assume the absence of Hawkins and Duncan were the difference is of zero consequence. Blicavs playing on a wing was always going to be either a genius call or bad strategy. Scott gambled and lost but stubbornly refused to make a move. Scott has repeatedly been out-coached in finals. Yes, I think we have you covered.
AJ73
Roar Rookie
Truetigerfan - barely covered, down by 21 pts against a team that had no FF (Hawkins), two-way running midfielder (Duncan), Blicavs playing on the wing and not full back and a pretty handy backman to cover small forwards (Clarke). The bounce went your way a couple of times that made the difference. Particularly Kelly running into the 50m with an extremely good chance of kicking a goal, bounces the way Aussie rules balls do and instead of going 2pts up, Richmond take it down the other end and go 10pts up. Luck of the bounce yes - but covered not so sure otherwise why were you down at half time?
Cracka
Roar Rookie
I don’t see traveling as a big issue as others do, no difference in driving from Geelong to Melbourne, but I do think if things go against Geelong and they missed the finals then a change in coaching maybe on the cards.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
If they drop out of the 8 Scott should get the sack, it's a garunteed 9 win season just because of their home ground, pick up 5 more and they're set, they'd have at least 5 more games in Vic on top of that without any real travel. Some teams really do have it easier than others don't they.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
Jonboy do you not get sick of putting out this repetitious argument every season? Put it in the West Australian. People may believe you there. Geelong will play 9 home games west coast 11. Geelong play interstate teams 4 home 4 away. In other words they play 50% of their interstate games away as does WCE and Geelong are gifted a draw. If WCE finish top they will get at least 2 home finals whereas Geelong may get none and that's favouritism is it? Deary me.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
It becomes boring after awhile seeing all the same teams play finals. Seeing Brisbane and the WB play finals last year was a breath of fresh air and hopefully the final eight will have more teams that have not played finals for a long time in it this year. I cannot see Sydney making finals this year with their young list and loss of experienced players. The Hawks are probably the most likely team outside of the top 8 to play finals again and replace Essendon but nothing is guaranteed.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Swans had a dip last year.... I can only hope the Cats do this year.... I know unlikely, but it would be nice to see a Finals series without a Hawk, Swan or Cat....
zed16
Guest
Geoff not sure you are correct on most 18-20 year olds. Geelong by my count have 13 in this age group which is the same ac Carlton and i have not counted the other 16 clubs.
EaglesMan
Roar Rookie
I agree the eagles are no guarantee to finish top two or top 4. Certainly no hiding we had an ordinary season last year
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Who will merge 6 in front?
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
So where did u call there position in 2019?
Jonboy
Roar Rookie
Geelong get a gifted draw again. Like Richmond, Collingwood stay at home draw. Maybe they suffer air sickness. Personally i think there future is in big trouble.
Raimond
Roar Guru
https://cdn4.theroar.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Toby-Greene-415x285.jpg
Thatsashame
Guest
Agree Yattz. They were probably an accurate Mark Blicavs kick away from that prelim too. 5 goal lead would have been enough. Can't see them dropping much if at all
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Eagle man, I am but a simple man. The threads confuse me. Jenkins was a strange one. It may be an inspired acquisition. My view is it may be irrelevant. My post was about Port making the top four. If they harden up they will. Just generally, I think I can trump IAP’s bias adjustment. The arrogance ladder. This is headed by the black and lime green but the eagles supporters are a clear second and the Collingwood is third. Hawks fourth and it used to be Adelaide.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
The Cats had zero interest in Jenkins until Danger put in his two bobs worth. What a joke! Awful decision.
EaglesMan
Roar Rookie
And recruiting Jenkins is a master stroke ? He struggled to get a game at Adelaide
fabian gulino
Roar Rookie
they will finish 7th.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
No they will harden up.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
Yes, they had an excellent opportunity last year to win the premiership but failed in the prelim. They should have led by much more at half time in that prelim against Richmond but couldn't take their chances. Their premiership window is surely coming to a close now and surely there are question marks surrounding Chris Scott. He just can't seem to get the job done when it matters. It shouldn't matter that he has consistently made finals because that should be the expectation given the lists he has had at his disposal in his time at Geelong. I also doubt Steven will be able to replicate the output that Tim Kelly had at Geelong and keep them in hunt for a flag. They should play finals again but they are the most likely team to fall out of the top 4 from last year I think.