Not even the most broken, pessimistic Melbourne fan could have seen 2019 coming.
A preliminary final appearance was followed up by a 5-17 season that was somehow even worse than a 17th-place finish would suggest.
Only the faux AFL team on the Gold Coast conceded more points or scored fewer than the Demons last season.
It was the kind of nightmarish year that brings out the worst in footy discourse – “they’re soft”, “they got ahead of themselves”, “loser club” – all of those scorching-hot takes that might just contain a kernel of truth but are impossible to prove or disprove.
Maybe the Demons were overrated heading into 2019 and their putrid preliminary final performance should have been a giant red flag for optimists.
Maybe they got figured over the off-season that followed.
Maybe their coach is no good.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Maybe they relied more on Jordan Lewis and Nathan Jones than we realised and when those two tipped over the edge they took Melbourne’s hopes with them.
Or maybe the explanation is much simpler than any of that. Maybe they stunk in 2019 because they got injured a lot.
I don’t know when exactly it started or why, but at some point a good chunk of the footy-watching world decided injuries weren’t a valid excuse, which is of course ridiculous.
Melbourne’s four most important defenders are, in some order, Jake Lever, Steven May, Michael Hibberd and Neville Jetta.
That foursome appeared on an AFL field together a total of twice in the 2019 season.
Any combination of three of them managed just six games together. That’s a killer for a group that has never previously played together.
Unsurprisingly, the 2019 Demons conceded a goal on 25.9 per cent of their opponents’ inside 50s, which was better than only the Saints and the Suns.
Continuity might be as important as talent in today’s AFL, especially when it comes to the defensive part of the ground. It’s no surprise the Tigers were able to hold it together even after their superstar key back Alex Rance went down last year when you consider the amount of footy Nick Vlastuin, Dylan Grimes, Bachar Houli and David Astbury have played together.
It wasn’t a whole lot better at the other end for Melbourne. The now-underrated Christian Petracca – I’ll buy any and all of your Petracca stock – played every game. But Tom McDonald managed just 15 matches and was hobbling around like he should have been put on ice for a good chunk of those, while Alex Neal-Bullen played 14 and Jake Melksham 12.
With Jesse Hogan gone it was another far-from-ideal situation for a unit trying to forge a new identity and build chemistry.
Unsurprisingly, the Demons converted just 18.8 per cent of their inside 50s into goals, which was good for dead last in that category, just a year after they were the highest-scoring team in the league.
(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
There weren’t many positives for Melbourne last year, but the one thing injuries provide is opportunity, and Marty Hore grabbed his. The mature-age recruit looked more than comfortable at AFL level and should only find life easier when (or if) he’s sharing the field with the Demons’ best defenders.
Similarly, Bayley Fritsch is good and looked more than comfortable and capable in the later parts of the season when playing in the attacking half of the ground. He too will benefit from playing alongside a healthy McDonald and Melksham, who might just be Melbourne’s most important player, just as they will benefit from playing alongside him.
The midfield is still strong. Max Gawn and Clayton Oliver is the best ruck-rover combination in the league, though Melbourne fans will be hoping Oliver spends more time in 2020 kicking with his eyes open than he did in 2019. James Harmes has established himself as a fine player. Angus Brayshaw needs to be better. Jack Viney needs to be fit.
Last season was ugly – there’s no point pretending otherwise – and current injuries to Gawn and especially May are concerning. And you can’t have a decade as futile as Melbourne did recently without carrying some baggage.
Thankfully, the Demons don’t need to look too far into the past for an example to give them hope. There were plenty of snickers at Richmond’s expense after a pitiful 2016 season.
It’d be foolish to predict Melbourne can repeat the feats of the 2017 Tigers, but after what footy has served up in the past half-decade, it’d be equally foolish to insist they can’t.
PriddisJunior
Roar Rookie
Ahh...the good old days :silly:
todd
Guest
I'm a Dees fan for >20 years and I think the article is a balanced assessment of the last 2 years. The game plan that worked so successfully needs reinventing and extra speed on both wings and outside run will help. Defensive consistency worries me and we need total commitment and minimal injuries from Lever, May and Petty (likely Frosty's replacement). TMac needs to kick 40 and he needs support from Weids and the smalls. It is really hard to predict how they will bounce back after so many years of underachievement. Top 8 on paper but the response to last year is solely between the ears
Onside
Guest
We can thank Dorothy Parker for headline inspiration.
Johnno
Roar Rookie
As Sheedy said....Roos has got a lot of mileage out of the 1 premiership.
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
So Carlton supporters must be really used to it by now. So Col, explain to me why are their still bothering to convince fellow readers that things will be different "next year".
Eddie from Elwood
Roar Rookie
Richmond won the Premiership and were still called rubbish, Grant Thomas anyone?
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
A team with a 108.7% who misses the 8 might have some reasonable claims to a bit of unfortunate luck but when a team goes thru a season scoring at 78.6% starts playing the unlucky season card it's time to start playing the violin. Yes the really small kind.
ScottyJ
Roar Rookie
I guess a 16 team 30 round comp where all teams play each other twice would settle a lot of issues with fixturing etc. Could extend squads etc.
1DER
Guest
Off main stream but I believe 2 teams need to be excluded from the competition let's say Melbourne and the Saints. Thoughts for and against for both these poorly run and performed Victorian clubs?
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Gee Darren you must not read all the articles/comments on The Roar if you think people don’t like sinking the boot into Carlton. Most Carlton articles (and there has been a lot of them) are full of negatives and will get in excess of 100 comments which are usually 50% negatives from people who love seeing the Blues failing and the other 50% are Carlton supporters trying to convince them they are wrong.
1DER
Guest
The Dees have along way to go to with regards to tightening up their defensive game. In 2018 whilst they belted up teams like Carlton, Suns and the Saints in that six week block they leaked plenty of goals for the season and was on the end of a high percentage of 90+ points against. In 2019 they conceded 297 goals and 213 behinds in the 22 games played. Way too many goals:behinds, up there with the Saints and Suns. Think the Dees are falling behind with the Hogan, May trades with May needing to justify the high cost to Melbourne in 2020 and 2021. Gold Coast are starting to turn the trade deal in their favour?
RT
Roar Rookie
Paul Roos had an overall coaching record of 51% wins with one Premiership. He helped get the culture right at Sydney and that is his lasting legacy. He didn't seem to do quite the same at Melbourne. I don't understand the messiah status.
fabian gulino
Roar Rookie
the demons can just go back to basics and put in more than an effort.
Birdman
Roar Rookie
Paul Roos should hand back some of that monster coaching deal as he simply did not fix that club despite initially showing a bit in 2018 under Goodwin.
Macca
Roar Rookie
“666 ruined Melbourne” The devil ruined the demons? :silly:
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
Yeah you would hope Goodwin learned his lesson last year and has thought of something to resolve this issue but he does regularly get outcoached in games and doesn’t seem to have a plan B when plan A goes pear shaped. Simpson really did a number on him in that 2018 prelim. He (goodwin) will be under a lot of pressure to get results this year despite his contract extension after one good year.
Vercetti1986'
Roar Rookie
Regardless of when the surgeries occurred, I just find it perplexing how it could affect their ability to train and build up their fitness to such an extent when the preseason lasts for months. The people running this area of the club are paid to handle this and clearly they failed to manage this last year. Maybe with Darren Burgess being the head of fitness now, they will become fitter but I still think the fitness problem was just a small aspect of their problems last year. Skill errors were rampant and it really set them back in many games. Missed kicks, wrong decisions, inattentiveness etc. I think Goodwin should be focusing on fixing the problems with the skills in the off season more than anything else for them improve. Another thing is that I think Richardson was a good pickup for them in the offseason despite his unsuccessful tenure at St Kilda. He is apparently a really good assistant coach or a professional person to have in an organisation. He just wasn’t cut out for being the head guy at a football unfortunately but I think he could add a lot
6x6 perkele
Roar Rookie
666 ruined Melbourne, couldn't run 2-4 players off back of square suddenly and coaching staff where to inept to come up with cover for that.
Guest
Guest
That’s the thing though. Most, if not all of the surgeries were completed as soon as possible after the PF. It’s just that the team had around 15-17 of them go under the knife as well, more than any team. And I think it’s because of this that they completely overhauled the medical department, so it’s not like they’re treating it as an excuse. It’s more of a reason.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
I’d say any team that falls from a season up the top tier of the ladder into a season of complete ineptitude cops a fair bit. Hell, any team that’s “overperformed”, or simply hasn’t performed, will receive criticism aplenty, such is the parochial nature of the industry. Freo certainly has, Carlton’s copped plenty, Richmond/Collingwood have had plenty flung at them. I’m fairly ambivalent on the Dees, and hope they have a good year, but it’s a little rich to complain the Dees are unnecessarily the targets of ‘boots being sunk in’ unfairly, when that isn’t true.