The best player in the AFL might not be who you think

Who is the best player in the AFL?

It’s a question that does the rounds on a semi-regular basis, usually because media personalities are either overly effusive, or underwhelming with their expressed opinions.

It is, though, a valid topic for discussion every so often, particularly when new players enter the conversation, given their performances around the time of debate.

Maybe that leans too heavily into recency bias, a notion that can be toxic on any platform where opinions are shared.

We must keep in mind that we are often discussing the league’s best player at the current point in time though. Looking at recent form is the best indicator of that.

Of course, we have the much-maligned Brownlow Medal.

(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

There’s constant conjecture regarding the validity of the award, with the obvious perception that it’s a midfielder’s award, given the fact the umpires spend most of the time in stoppages.

It’s also relatively skewed to successful teams and can lead to more prolific players rather than the best necessarily – Ollie Wines had an impressive statistical season in 2021, yet most would not have him in their top 15 players across the competition.

That’s not to say the Brownlow is always wrong – Gary Ablett and Nat Fyfe certainly held the title of the league’s best player and won the award in teams that didn’t make finals.

Perhaps the AFLCA Champion Player of The Year Award holds more weight, although with some of the criticism individual coaches receive, it’s surprising the same critical fans hold it in such high regard.

In 2016, 2017 and 2020, Patrick Dangerfield, Dustin Martin and Lachie Neale won both this award, and the Brownlow.

The reigning champion, Clayton Oliver, has enjoyed a good start to 2022, averaging career highs early in the season in marks, inside 50s, clearances, uncontested possessions and metres gained. He certainly has an argument for being the league’s best.

His teammate though, Christian Petracca, won the Norm Smith Medal with one of the greatest statistical performances in a grand final and proved to have that clutch gene that tends to be used in other sports to differentiate the good from the best.

After 5 rounds, he’s sitting second in the AFLCA’s award.

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Let’s not forget the players themselves vote on the Leigh Matthews Trophy, the AFLPA’s MVP award. I could argue that there can be biases at play, but the inability to vote for teammates at least attempts to promote objectivity.

Marcus Bontempelli is the reigning champion there, and hasn’t featured outside the top six in the AFLCA’s award since 2018.

Winning the respect and recognition of your peers gives this award a fair bit of personal value.

These awards tend to prompt the question, how much of the past should we use to dictate who we believe is the best player in the AFL?

Maybe it’s important to differentiate between the best and most skilled players. Shai Bolton averages 18 disposals, five clearances, four inside 50s and two goals a game. He ranks sixth in the league for centre clearances and running bounces, despite not playing majority midfield.

Caleb Daniel, Errol Gulden and Liam Baker are among those vying for being the most skilled players, yet their roles rarely receive such large praise.

Obviously, there’s no right or wrong answers in a genuine discussion on the matter, given it’s a matter of opinion.

Bontempelli, for instance, has featured most heavily in prestigious awards, but due to injury, has played a completely different role in 2022.

Still, he is ranked second in goal assists and third for score involvement while averaging 21 disposals and six marks a game. He’s playing well, even in his team’s struggles.

It’s true though that his teammate, Jack Macrae, is perennially under-appreciated for his exploits.

(Photo by Steve Bell/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Statistics aren’t everything and in fact, they can be misleading as we saw from Wines last season. But Macrae has ranked in the top five in the last three seasons in the entire AFL for effective disposals, inside 50s, clearances, score involvements and contested possessions.

This is unmatched across the league and his influence on the Bulldogs is there to see in plain sight.

I discussed Oliver and Petracca, two of the best midfielders in the entire league and at the forefront of a Demons renaissance.

Lachie Neale has started the season incredibly, averaging 32 disposals, eight clearances, seven score involvements and five inside 50s. He has recaptured the form that entered him into a different stratosphere.

Are we to completely discount Fyfe and Martin just because we haven’t seen them in recent times?

It’s rare that there is a near consensus around the best player in the league, but both have been held aloft by that sentiment in the past.

Some may argue for these players, most may reject them, but both have earned the right to maintain relevance in the discussion until there’s evidential proof of a drop-off.

That is likely the reason Patrick Dangerfield isn’t as popular a name in these circles as he once was.

The 32-year-old is still ranked second for centre clearances and sixth for goal assists across the league, but the blitzing of the opposition we saw in the past seems sporadic at best these days.

Ruckmen get a bad wrap because apparently hitouts don’t mean anything, but Max Gawn’s efforts around the ground make him one of the most unstoppable players in the league. Does that equate to the best?

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Along with the established stars, we have the newcomers that can be argued for.

Jack Steele is pretty damn good, in a very matter-of-fact, unassuming way. Touk Miller is the same, although his form has dropped off a little to start the season.

Sam Walsh has only just come back from injury but watching him play, he has a special aura about him in the same way Chris Judd did.

It may seem unfair that no key forwards are in the conversation, but the league lacks a definitive best in the position, let alone a transformative talent like Lance Franklin.

I’ve listed a bunch of contenders but given what is expected of an opinion piece, a list of finalists is appropriate.

Oliver and Neale are in the top five. They’ve had sustained success and have won many games off their own boots. They have had consistent performances at an A+ level.

Andrew Brayshaw is currently leading the AFLCA’s award and after Round 5, and probably the Brownlow Medal.

The 22-year-old has been trending towards stardom and has been instrumental to his team’s excellent start to the season.

Averaging 31 disposals, six tackles, six inside 50s, six marks and a scoring shot per game, Brayshaw has been consistently getting better since the start of 2021.

Imagine, just imagine, the best player in the entire AFL is a key defender.

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Steven May plays for the best team in the AFL.

Part of Melbourne’s killer plan is defensive commitment all over the ground. They put pressure on the opposition and often create situations where entries inside 50 are high and inaccurate.

Steven May is producing the sort of numbers and season rarely seen in the competition for key defenders.

Rated elite for disposals (21.4), rebound 50s (9.4), kicking efficiency (89.7 per cent), intercept marks (3.4) and contested marks (1.8), May is arguably Melbourne’s best counter-attacking weapon offensively despite being the team’s main defender.

The 30-year-old is currently averaging 4.2 contested one-on-ones per game and has lost just 4.8 per cent of the time.

Comparatively, previously perennial All Australian Jeremy McGovern had a season losing just 7.5 per cent of contests in a complete anomaly, but was involved in 2.8 per game.

Most elite key defenders sit around the 16-21 per cent loss mark and no one has produced such elite offensive and defensive numbers in recorded statistics.

Yet it feels like it’s all clicking for Isaac Heeney to have taken the competition by storm.

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

He has always been extremely talented, but the 25-year-old has turned that talent into sustained, influential performances.

Five games in, he’s averaging 19 disposals, seven tackles, five marks and three clearances, and he’s kicked 14 goals. His previous career high for kicking efficiency was 65.8 per cent – in 2022, he’s sitting at 77 per cent.

No player is having the impact Heeney is inside 50 as an attacking threat or defensively and has influenced results in multiple ways this season.

If Heeney stays healthy, the awards will start to pile up swiftly for the Swan and he could post some record-setting numbers.

We are fortunate to have such a variety of bonafide stars across the competition.

And as for who the best player is in the AFL?

Well, let the discussion begin!