A-League’s compromised draw has whacked Melbourne Victory, but they will fight it out to the end

By Stuart Thomas / Expert

Just five rounds remain in the 2022-23 A-League Men season, some believe all 12 clubs could still appear in the finals, and the run home will be crucial in deciding who qualifies for a crack at the championship trophy.

Like many other Australian sporting codes, a compromised draw where teams do not face their opponents the same number of times during the season provides a constant source of discussion and debate.

The ramifications of such inequity will be highlighted over the next five weeks, with favourable or horrible draws potentially determining the all-important make-up of the top six.

Subsequently, in a league where there is little more than a struck match between teams across the majority of home and away rounds, it is almost certain that a team will miss out based upon the unfairness of the draw and another potentially qualify thanks to their lucky lot.

For the A-League uninitiated, all teams play each other twice during the regular season and then participate in four other matches that are chosen by the APL to maximise interest, viewership and attendances.

Anyone who thinks that is fair traverses a different planet to the one I roam and the dynamic is magnified in a salary-capped league that has the desired impact of keeping the competition close and unpredictable.   

They engineer parity and then skew it by tacking on four matches at the discretion of organisers, out to simply achieve metrics.

Every team has a story of fortune or lack of it. In 2022-23, Melbourne Victory has felt the full whack of the compromised draw stick. The floundering Victory has expectedly been asked to take on the powerhouse that is Melbourne City on three occasions.

Some derbies are more eventful than others. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

No real sympathy from me, they have been ordinary this season and did win unexpectedly on Feb 18, yet considering that Victory have also faced second on the ladder Adelaide three times, when most have not, the tough draw might go some way to explaining why Tony Popovic’s side has seemed so far off the pace.

Mathematically, six of Victory’s 21 matches to this point have been played against the top-two sides. In fact, of those 21 matches, 13 have been played against the current top six, with two more top-six sides to come in the form of the Phoenix and Wanderers.

The run home actually looks decent for Popovic’s men, although they would need to be almost perfect to somehow scrape into the finals come May.

Elsewhere, things look frightful for ladder-leader Melbourne City across the same period. A charging Jets, Wellington, Central Coast and the Wanderers all await Rado Vidosic’s team, one already looking a little wobbly over the last six weeks.  

The Wanderers will face Adelaide, Melbourne City, Victory and Wellington during the run home, another tough draw and the Reds have what looks to be a kind last five rounds, with Western Sydney and Central Coast the sternest match-ups ahead.

Central Coast have just two top-six opponents, Adelaide and Melbourne City, to face through April and the Phoenix will have their eyes on the top four considering Victory, Brisbane and Macarthur all look like winnable games.

Sydney FC could well hang on to a place in the top six, despite the disastrous Derby performance that saw the Wanderers pull down their pants and spank their backsides in an emphatic fashion. The Sky Blues have Western United, Perth, Brisbane and Newcastle in the cross-hairs and the points required to play finals are there for the taking.

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Of those outside looking in, the Jets face top-six opposition in three of their five remaining games, making the task considerable, whilst Western United have a horror run, up against Sydney FC, Central Coast, Adelaide and City over the next four weeks.

Macarthur are so inconsistent they hardly deserve a spot in the finals. However, their run home is reasonable, with Wellington and Western Sydney the biggest hurdles. Perth may be outsiders, yet only Adelaide loom as a daunting opponent and three of their last five will be at home.

There is scope for a late charge from a team building momentum and a full analysis of the compromised draw come seasons’ end will be well worth the investigation. Sadly for Victory, not only have they played poorly this season, they also appear to have copped the rough end of the stick in terms of the draw.

The Crowd Says:

2023-03-23T03:02:15+00:00

Tim Carter

Roar Pro


From what I understood, you had two proposals. Your 14 away games one season, 12 away games the next would marginally improve the issue one season and worsen it the next, assuming I understood it correctly. The other suggestion was to break up the time that NSW (and presumably Victorian) clubs spend in their own state. All well and good, except that there's only so many interstate trips for them to make. In a pure H&A season, using WSW as an example (you could use any NSW clubs), there's only 7 interstate trips to make. Assuming that their extra four fixtures included away fixtures against your victims of bias (Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, and Wellington), that would only bump the total figure to 9 interstate games. Even if you tried to mandate that WSW had to play all of those opponents a third time and be the away team for all of those third encounters (good luck convincing them to give up two home games), it'd still only be 11 interstate games out of 26. And since not all of the 8 NSW and Victorian clubs can play their 4 additional games against the 4 other clubs, that interstate number will go down further. For a side like Perth, they'd be happy to avoid a third distance derby, but be less enthused about losing their extra game against Adelaide. They're still on a plane every fixture that they're not hosting. We all understand the costs of flights and accommodation, and the disadvantages of having one's circadian rhythm affected. But this is an unavoidable consequence of Australia's geography and population distribution. I'm all ears if you suggest asking the Wellingtons of the league how they want their draw to be structured (blocks of away games versus every second week at home, etc). I'm all ears if you want to encourage ventures like rugby league's Magic Round, where all of the weekend's games are played at a single venue, and hosted it outside NSW or Victoria. I'm all ears if you can propose a viable business model that supports A-League clubs being spread out evenly across the states. Just come up with something more than claims of bias and inefficient attempts to kneecap the clubs with a geographical advantage.

2023-03-23T00:16:52+00:00

MarkCroydon

Roar Rookie


The best system would be a normal league where each team plays each other home and away, and the team that finishes top is champion with no need for finals. This works in ALL of the top domestic leagues in Europe. However, if we want to keep the AFL/NRL type system of finals then we should have a format that actually makes some sense to determine the finalists. The best system would be to split the league into 2 "Conferences" of 6 teams each. Allow each team to play 3 matches against the other teams in their conference and 2 matches against the teams in the other conference. This means 27 matches per team. Then have the top 3 teams from each conference make the finals. It is similar to the top 6 currently, but at least there is some fairness in that the teams that qualify will have had a more fair draw.

2023-03-22T22:35:11+00:00

Stevo

Roar Rookie


Just had a look at MLS structure. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Soccer Team Location Eastern Conference Atlanta United FC Atlanta, Georgia Charlotte FC Charlotte, North Carolina Chicago Fire FC Chicago, Illinois FC Cincinnati Cincinnati, Ohio Columbus Crew Columbus, Ohio D.C. United Washington, D.C. Inter Miami CF Fort Lauderdale, Florida CF Montréal Montreal, Quebec Nashville SC Nashville, Tennessee New England Revolution Foxborough, Massachusetts New York City FC New York City, New York New York Red Bulls Harrison, New Jersey Orlando City SC Orlando, Florida Philadelphia Union Chester, Pennsylvania Toronto FC Toronto, Ontario Western Conference Austin FC Austin, Texas Colorado Rapids Commerce City, Colorado FC Dallas Frisco, Texas Houston Dynamo FC Houston, Texas Sporting Kansas City Kansas City, Kansas LA Galaxy Carson, California Los Angeles FC Los Angeles, California Minnesota United FC Saint Paul, Minnesota Portland Timbers Portland, Oregon Real Salt Lake Sandy, Utah San Jose Earthquakes San Jose, California Seattle Sounders FC Seattle, Washington St. Louis City SC St. Louis, Missouri Vancouver Whitecaps FC Vancouver, British Columbia Three teams in California (state pop ~40M people) Two teams in Ohio (state pop ~12M people) Two teams in Texas (state pop ~30M people) etc We can see that the state pop divided by number of MLS teams is going to be around ~>=5M. In Victoria we average ~2.2M per ALM team (3 teams) and in NSW that drops to ~1.6M per ALM team (5 teams). We can see the difficulty for professional football and this won't go away anytime soon with AFL and NRL sucking down billions of sponsorship dollars.

2023-03-22T20:13:04+00:00

Buddy

Roar Rookie


Steve, I have said on here a few times that pro/rel is on my wish list but not right now. I feel the flaw is in the belief that it will improve things/fix whatever is perceived to be wrong at present and that there has to be an organic pathway to the top rather than a closed shop. I have a few friends who watch what is popularly referred to as non league football in the UK and they happily talk about the “what if” whilst at the same time they know that the current budget, ownership etc will never take them to the dizzy heights of EPL and they don’t really want to be there anyway. Even Wrexham who are being funded by “Ryan and Rob” were not able to immediately jet their way out of the national league although it looks as though they will achieve this season. There are a few of us posting on here in support of learning from MLS and what they have achieved over the last decade or so. There are so many similarities especially relating to distance and travel and therefore costs and sustainability and they too have two homegrown sports that are very popular but they have found their way into the hearts of many followers and attendances are pretty good. Whilst they have a much larger overall population, LA is the only city where there is more than one team to choose from and LAFC are a recent expansion club so plenty of planning and gauging the potential of places before adding them in. Trouble here is that we appear to want everything and want it now and we don’t learn lessons along the way. I’m not even convinced about adding Auckland, or put it another way, I’d love to see the empirical evidence and depth of research but I suspect that it might just rest on the novelty of Wellington playing a few games at Eden Park - (I’m a skeptic).

2023-03-22T17:43:48+00:00

Punter

Roar Rookie


Yes embrace what we have!!!!

2023-03-22T17:43:17+00:00

Punter

Roar Rookie


One of the best, truest comment I have read on the Roar for a long time.

2023-03-22T08:38:40+00:00

Stevo

Roar Rookie


Time to change the rules and rejoice in the truly global popularity of the game. Celebrate the many nationalities that have come to Australia and played the game here. Come on FA/APL, stop being frightened of your own shadows and grow some courage.

2023-03-22T08:35:47+00:00

Stevo

Roar Rookie


"We look to europe and South America and make comparisons and draw irrelevant conclusions about stadiums, crowds, players, skill level, administrators – well just about anything and everything and it is totally flawed thinking." Maybe pro/rel in Australian professional football (at this time) is also flawed thinking? Learn to crawl before walking?

2023-03-22T08:32:09+00:00

Buddy

Roar Rookie


Last time I read the rules - no national flags ☹️

2023-03-22T08:31:08+00:00

Stevo

Roar Rookie


Slight diversion from this article, but AFL clarified that it allows national flags at games. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/incorrect-interpretation-afl-says-fans-welcome-to-wave-israeli-flag-20230322-p5cubq.html Are we allowed to display national flags at A-league games? I thought we weren't or have I got it wrong?

2023-03-22T05:38:30+00:00

Garry

Roar Rookie


Id prefer the NPL guy some mentioned but have no idea about him :silly:

2023-03-22T05:26:41+00:00

Grem

Roar Rookie


I know you’re mucking around, but wouldn’t it be nice to get someone who is demanding and wants to play attacking football. So me mucking around - I’d prefer to see Bielsa or Postecoglou.

2023-03-22T04:58:44+00:00

Garry

Roar Rookie


If Talay goes to MV should Sydney fc employ Popovic???

2023-03-22T00:37:20+00:00

At work

Roar Rookie


Playing games in neutral venues just to remove a NSW travel bias is the stupidest idea ever, it's basically the WU model right now (as they have no home ground). They should absolutely correct the fixturing where it's a simple home, away, home, away, etc, but I'm not sure you can do much more about single state teams like Adelaide, Perth, Wellington, Brisbane. Although I am in favour of a central funding model for travel so that those non-NSW & Melbourne teams aren't as disadvantaged.

2023-03-22T00:14:51+00:00

Garry

Roar Rookie


In other news.. "Roma set new attendance record for Italian women's football with slim loss to Barcelona in UWCL" "Twenty-thousand people also turned out for Bayern Munich's quarter-final against Caitlin Foord and Steph Catley's Arsenal at the Allianz Arena, which the German heavyweights won 1-0" "FIFA are projecting almost 1.5 million people will attend the tournament in Australia and New Zealand, with over 2 billion expected to watch on television." "Tomorrow morning, Sam Kerr's Chelsea will face Ellie Carpenter's Olympique Lyonnais"

2023-03-21T21:33:36+00:00

Buddy

Roar Rookie


As football fans we appear to want an awful lot of things that whilst aren’t ultimately impossible, they are incredibly difficult to say the least yet our expectations are there, demands, wishes and they combine with our constant complaints that all is not well in the sport. I think that perhaps it is due to the fact that in the big picture and evolution of the sport, Tyne A league and everything it encompasses are toddlers in this particular world and that means we want everything possible and if we don’t get it when we want it there will be lots of noise and temper tantrums and it’s always someone else’s fault. We look to europe and South America and make comparisons and draw irrelevant conclusions about stadiums, crowds, players, skill level, administrators - well just about anything and everything and it is totally flawed thinking. We are very much at the junior end of the evolution of the game in this country and we definitely try to run before we can walk. We want more teams, more players, more money, more stadiums, more derbies, more marquee players, more fans, more respect from other codes, more self policing, more fairness - whatever that means. More promotion, more television, more press coverage, more say in the sport and the way it is run…….. yes “more more more”. I’m as critical of the admin that run the game and the clubs as anyone else but I am also somewhat pragmatic and understand that in terms of time and development we really are babies in the game and as with children, there is a lot to learn, heaps of mistakes to make, some often repeated ones and one of the first things we need to learn is not to keep dribbling everywhere. At game level it is one of the first things we teach young players; practice the skills and be in control but don’t try dribbling 110 yards - it doesn’t work. I’m not going to be more specific today, just acknowledging that we are on a long road that winds and climbs and falls and is full of obstacles to trip us up so better not to beat ourselves up as well as we continue the journey.

2023-03-21T09:58:02+00:00

Bendtner52

Roar Pro


Interesting points, but I am a Victory fan, and a club of this level, should be able to raise its game against City, Adelaide, WSW and Sydney as these are "bread and butter" rivalries. Regardless of the fact that Victory have the most enemies in the league, and teams who raise their game when facing them...they should be better than this!

2023-03-21T06:49:09+00:00

Grem

Roar Rookie


I respect your football knowledge – no question of that. The draw could be tinkered with to ensure some inequities do not occur, such as that Wellington situation and order of games – for sure, However, in the end there are 5 teams, perhaps soon to be 6 in NSW and these home and away games will be in NSW. That can’t be changed. NSW based teams are not going to fly to Tasmania to play a game just so they have to experience what Adelaide does – in terms of costs and being away from home. As a supporter I am paying for a season’s worth of games – as you do. When we play teams like Adelaide or Perth then they need to be home and away as well. If/when there’s a third game it needs to be season by season in terms of 2 or 1 at home or away – for equity. When you’re the only team in a state that’s just the way it is. If Adelaide were to have 5 games away in NSW and live there for 5 weeks then that might solve some problems before they then play 5 at home. Our draw is like the NBL, NRL and AFL because it is fair. I really don’t get your argument and it’s not because I am NSW biased. If I lived in SA and followed Adelaide I’d see it the same. The cost of these flights is just bad luck – it’s like choosing to live in regional areas – you pay more for goods, etc. FIFA doesn’t make special allowances for Aussie footballers flying home to represent the Socceroos and their circadian rhythms would be really messed up. I’ll agree to disagree with you.

2023-03-21T05:50:22+00:00

TheSecretScout

Roar Guru


NSW, SA, SA, NSW, NSW(tas), QLD, QLD NSW, WA, WA NSW, NSW(tas), NZ, NZ NSW, VIC,VIC NSW, NSW(tas), VIC, VIC NSW, VIC, VIC NSW, NSW (tas) ^^^^ thats an example of how a 26 game season could look the double up (4) nsw based fixtures would be a third fixture played between 2 nsw sides in 'neutral territory eg tasmania (tasmania needs a deeper look if viable for entry)

2023-03-21T05:40:34+00:00

TheSecretScout

Roar Guru


there have been several studies conducted on how travel is a disadvantage for professional athletes (2 recent ones were done on football in italy and brazil, which i have linked on here multiple times in several topics when it comes to the travel debate) its been proven how negatively it effects an athletes circadian rhythm, concentration levels significantly drop and lactic acid builds up a lot more. every second match adelaide/perth/wellington have to get on/off a plane, sleep in a different bed, eat at a different time then what they are used to etc etc (and everything else associated to travel) nsw teams dont have to do anywhere near that amount of travel, because they play 4 or 5 games in a row in their home state - it enables them to build momentum due to familiarity. look at the current a league season, with the exception of sydney - no nsw side has got in double figures for points taken when travelling interstate/NZ theres no coincidence that central coast and the wanderers have been heavily reliant on their home form to maintain pace in the top 6. its a cop out to suggest you cant have a h + a season even with the majority of clubs in nsw, theres ways of evening out (i gave an example of yet another alternate schedule above) you also absolutely cannot continue to have diabolical scheduling - like adelaide going to wellington twice in a season (13 hour round trip across multiple flights, those 2 trips alone are more than 3/4 of the seasons travel for most NSW sides - adelaide didnt win either game) im still not sure why people based on the east coast cant seem to work this out (especially the financial implications associated with travelling every second week - i guarantee if the mariners and newcastle had to do this, they would struggle to sign players) parity and integrity should be the leagues number 1 goal across everything, unfortunately the sport as a whole still has too many NSW people in power positions.

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