What to trust in the AFL after two infuriatingly inconsistent rounds

We’re two weeks into the AFL season, and what an incredibly odd experience it has been.

Have we ever seen such inconsistency in teams between the first two rounds before? And a number of teams are surprising with their position on the ladder, both good and bad.

What can we trust?

Collingwood are the early darlings, and so they should be after playing the most dazzling football of any side so far, both matches against clubs supposed to be a threat in 2023. Their run and gun game is like the Richmond premiership era on steroids – coach Craig McRae was at Tigerland through that run.

The Pies are irresistible right now, but it’s worth remembering that it’s the team that looks like this at the back end of the season, not the start, that lifts the cup. And let’s not forget that Geelong, which are winless, were up by four goals against them in Round 1, on three separate occasions.

Jamie Elliott and Josh Daicos of the Magpies celebrate a goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Sydney has looked good in two training runs against Hawthorn and Gold Coast, but so they should against witches hats. We’ll judge them when the real potatoes come. That starts on Sunday against Melbourne.

St Kilda, Essendon and North Melbourne have also won both games, which has put a smile on many faces. But let’s be clear – they’ve all played rubbish opposition, either bad teams, or those horribly out-of-form. All three have big name new coaches, and all three have played honestly – it’s the first and main thing supporters demand.

Richmond and Carlton are two of many teams that have shown wild inconsistency. Others that were expected to contend this year, like Melbourne, Port Adelaide and Brisbane, are in the same camp.

These are five mature teams that would be backing themselves to finish top four at years end, and their inconsistency is infuriating.

The Tigers and Blues kicked off the season with a real arm-wrestle, ending in a draw. It’s hard to recall one memorable passage of fluid, or any fluid ball movement from either side. Yet both teams played some brilliant football at stages in Round 2.

The Demons, Power and Lions have both dealt out one shellacking, and been on the receiving end of one too. Brisbane are the common link, embarrassed by Port in Round 1, and dominating Melbourne in Round 2.

In the end, the Dees only went down by 11 points at the Gabba, but they were humiliated for most of the game, particularly at clearances. They’d like to think that will be their worst performance of the year, but let’s not forget they’ve only won seven of their last 16 games now.

Port have always ridden the emotional highs and lows under Ken Hinkley, which is why they’ve never amounted to anything. Awesome in Round 1 and pathetic in Round 2, nothing has changed.

Brisbane has a few credits in the bank when it comes to amassing home and away wins, but we needed to see them respond after their Round 1 loss when uncompetitive in Adelaide, and so they did.

All five of those teams are on notice though, and can’t fully be trusted this season yet.

Each of the winless brigade, six teams in all, have their own intriguing storyline already.

Geelong looked like they ran out of legs against Collingwood in Round 1, and struggled to match motors with Carlton during the middle stages of their Round 2 clash. Their next three games are against Gold Coast, Hawthorn and West Coast – the Cats could field their VFL team and still win those, so will have their chance to build momentum.

Blake Acres of the Blues marks the ball against Jeremy Cameron of the Cats. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs, finalists last year, couldn’t have opened the season any flatter.

The Dockers struggled to score last year, and are looking worse now. They have played in two low quality games of football, against St Kilda and North, and are lucky to have what is turning into an extremely soft opening run. But one more mis-step and it’s season over already.

And here’s the problem with Luke Jackson and all the hype surrounding him – he’s just not that good. He’s too much of a ruckman to be a forward, and not enough of a ruckman to be good one. He’s agile for a ruck, sure, but so what? He’s still slow and lumbering compared to a midfielder!

Something isn’t right at the Bulldogs. Josh Dunkley had been acting like a hostage trying to escape Whitten Oval for years. Jack Macrae is going through the motions, clearly unhappy at being asked to play more forward. The tall forward-line is difficult to make work. And Luke Beveridge routinely loses the plot with his mad mutterings.

Adelaide and Gold Coast came into 2023 with bright prospects, but the light has dimmed already.

Matthew Nicks is into the fourth year of a five year contract as senior coach, and the acid test is coming soon. The Crows must play finals next year, because they won’t be this season now. Their best is very good, but they need to start producing it for longer.

The Suns are in real trouble. They were horrible against Sydney, and wilted against an Essendon that isn’t very good. Careers are on the line at the club that no-one has been able to make work.

As for Hawthorn, we’ve never seen a team cut this dramatically and this deep in an off-season, and they will reap what they have sown each weekend this year. They’ll continue to be an embarrassment to the competition.