Pulling the Tigers' teeth: Lies, damn lies and statistics

This is the second article in a short series looking at the Wests Tigers. Working on the premise that all the teams in the NRL have the capacity to be competitive, we are seeking to understand why the Tigers are falling short.

Part 1 revisited

Part 1 focussed on the talent in the club and the point of difference players. The candidates are obvious, with most of the focus on Luke Brooks, Apisai Koroisau, Adam Doueihi and John Bateman with David Klemmer, Isaiah Papali’i and Alex Twal rounding out the discussion. The key points were:

1. Brooks is a good playmaker but needs stand-off and movement in the defence
2. The Tigers don’t understand how to play off Koroisau
3. Doueihi needs to be in the team but can’t be in the halves with Brooks
4. Getting the best from Bateman and Papali’i means setting a structure for their strengths.

What do the stats tell us?

The following statistics are pulled exclusively from the NRL totals as a common baseline for analysis. The averages have been calculated based on games played as the NRL averages are only based on three games.

Attacking stats

To the eye, Wests seem to have the ability to get down the ground and this is supported by the statistics. The Broncos and Rabbitohs top the table for all run metres, averaging around 1860m and 1824m respectively. Bottom of the table is held down by the Titans and Dragons at 1271m and 1282m while the Roosters are next at 1358m. Meanwhile, the Tigers are towards the top of the pack at 1730m. They do pretty well running the ball.

Where the picture changes for Wests is kick return metres, where they are awful. The best teams are the Broncos, Bulldogs (yeah, I was surprised too) and Panthers who have per game averages of 197m, 182m and 175m respectively. The Tigers sit all the way back at 132m per game, better only than the Titans at 114m and Sea Eagles at 116m.

The Tigers are at exactly 50 per cent possession but have the worst completion rate in the competition at 71 per cent, shading the Bunnies at 73 per cent. Post-contact metres are competitive at 480m. The Broncos are the standard setter at 594m (earlier in the season it was 680m) and the Eels at 569m while the Titans, Roosters and Dragons are again anchoring the competition at 358m, 388m and 392m respectively.

Total kick metres isn’t relevant: we already know the Tigers can get down the field so kicks will tend to be shorter attacking kicks into the opposition red zone rather than longer field position kicks. However, total kicks is of interest due to the Tigers’ completion rate. The worst teams, which were again Titans, Roosters and Dragons, are all around the 15 kicks per game while the best teams averaged 21 or higher while the Tigers came in at 16.6.

Moving the ball

A strong kick return serves two purposes. Firstly, it shortens the distance of travel when transitioning from the defensive line to onside for attack. Secondly, it reduces the time taken to reset into an attacking structure. A poor kick return forces the middles to work harder to get back into position and many of the second tackles are being taken by the same backfield players who were not effective on the kick return.

With tackles one and two largely ineffective, the Tigers are only accessing three tackles per set to build their attack on the ground.

Surprisingly, good overall run metres but an underperforming kick return means that yardage through the forwards is an area of over-performance. Wests do well getting down the field but they do it on the back of additional effort from the middles and edges. The numbers show the Tigers forwards are making their metres and then some.

This also explains the perception of lack of impact from Isaiah Papali’i: it’s hard to make a crushing edge run when your effort is expended supporting ball movement in the middle.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

There are extra details to add to this picture. The Tigers have achieved 50 per cent possession, which is a time-based stat but have only completed at 71 per cent which is a set-based stat. To hold the ball for half the match but complete at a low rate means that the Tigers are slow to complete sets, which helps the defender and impedes attack.

The opposition is conceding ground as the Tigers work the ball downfield but they don’t care. The Wests structure is slow to form and the player’s effort is expended on a treadmill: move the ball downfield, run back to compensate for a weak kick return and move the ball again. So much effort is expended by the Wests players in performing that sequence that little is left for dynamic attack.

The dangerous stats

There are two stats that Wests excel that act to hurt performance. The first is decoy runs, where the Tigers streak the field at 54 per match. The Warriors provide 52 while the Storm come in at 44 with the rest falling away from there. The Tigers also kill it on offloads at almost 15 per match. The next closest is the Eels, a noted offloading team, at 13 per match.

However, for all the offloads and decoys, the Tigers are amongst the worst in the comp for line breaks at less than four per match, with only the Titans and Sea Eagles at a lower rate and the best teams around five per match. No need to talk about errors and line breaks.

Decoy runs and offloads are deadly stats for the Tigers as they give the impression of players in motion and penetration of the defence without the reality. To be effective, the defence needs to accept the decoy as a legitimate pass target which generally means the decoy thinks he is getting the ball.

Players trundling forward without expectation are ignored by the defence and, ironically, reduce pressure by clarifying where the ball is going. The high rate of decoy runs is not a credible threat to the defence.

Offloads are great when they come from an effective line engagement to a runner moving at pace or into broken play. The low rate of line breaks shows this is not the type of offload achieved by the Tigers. Rather, these are better characterised as inter-passing amongst the forwards at the advantage line.

David Klemmer. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

This no doubt contributes a few extra metres per tackle, but it will not generate line breaks against current defensive structures. Defences set with edge defenders expecting the short-range offload. Given the slow rate of Tigers sets, it does not create pressure on the defence, but it does become an effort play from the Tigers forwards, further depleting energy stores. It also contributes to a high error rate and a constant risk of interception.

The attacking paradigm

For most teams, the assumption is that attacking play is more energy efficient and being forced onto the defence is when fatigue is generated. For the Tigers, the opposite is the case. While Wests are good at shifting the ball down field, this comes after compensating for a poor kick return and the impression of an attacking structure delivered through decoy running and second phase play from offloads.

While the Wests forwards are carrying, running decoys or putting a second effort into supporting an offload, the defence is comfortably able to trade space while holding shape thanks to the slow set speed. The high effort expended on attack translates to empty tanks on transition to defence and a busy scoreboard operator.

The next, and final, article will propose a potential way forward for the Tigers.