Collingwood beware, the AFL minor premiership is a poisoned chalice

Late in the evening of 21 September 2018, former Richmond assistant coach Justin Leppitsch addressed the Richmond playing squad.

Earlier that evening, the Tigers had suffered a six-goal loss to underdogs and arch rivals Collingwood in the preliminary final at the MCG. After being the best team of 2017 and 2018, the Tigers had blown their chance of back-to-back premierships at the second last hurdle.

Leppitsch spoke of the Tigers’ need to reprioritise their energy in the following season to focus solely on September – “We don’t need to be the best team throughout the year…just the best team in the last four weeks of year” said Leppitsch.

Leppitsch then referenced his own experiences with the Brisbane Lions throughout the early 2000s. Leppitsch’s then coach, Leigh Matthews, regularly emphasised to the Lions’ playing squad that they did not need to finish the season at the top of the ladder to win the premiership.

From 2001 to 2003, the Lions did not finish top of the AFL ladder. In each of those years, they won the premiership.

The Tigers also learnt this lesson. In both 2019 and 2020, they finished third on the AFL ladder. In both years, they won the AFL premiership.

Another former Lion who will be fully aware of this philosophy is current Collingwood coach Craig McRae. McRae’s men sit top of the AFL ladder after 10 rounds with nine wins and one loss.

The Pies are playing a fluid and cohesive brand of football that is the envy of the competition.

Collingwood coach Craig McRae. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

With a healthy list and seven of their remaining thirteen games at the MCG, they look likely to finish top of the AFL ladder in 2023.

McRae will be more aware than most that there is not a direct relationship between winning an AFL premiership and finishing top of the AFL ladder. Since the introduction of the current finals system in 2000, only seven of 23 (30%) premierships have been won by the minor premiers.

What is the cause of this unique AFL trend?

Since 2016, the post home and away season bye has negatively impacted those teams that finish first or second on the AFL ladder. The bye was introduced to maintain competition integrity in the final round of the regular season.

The bye aimed to ensure that finals-bound clubs did not rest players in their final home and away matches. In reality, it transformed the AFL from one continuous season to two smaller seasons.

This bye means that all finalists, regardless of ladder position, are given a week off to nurse injured players. This change has substantially benefitted the teams who finish in 5th to 8th.

It has also removed a crucial advantage rewarded to the winners of the qualifying finals. A week off for teams is now no longer earned through winning a qualifying final, rather it is given on a platter to all eight finalists.

The bye’s impact was immediate and significant. In 2016, the seventh-placed Bulldogs won the premiership. They were the first team since the introduction of the current finals structure in 2000 to make the grand final from outside the top four, let alone win the premiership.

Between 2000 and 2015, not one team from outside the top four qualified for the grand final. From 2016 to 2022, three grand finals (42%) have involved teams from outside the top four (Bulldogs – 2016, GWS – 2019, Bulldogs – 2021).

The post season bye has also meant that the two winners of the qualifying finals play two games in approximately four weeks.

While this break is advantageous for injured players, it can cause finely drilled and experienced players to the lose the rhythm of playing regular and intense matches at the end of an AFL season.

The statistics regarding recent preliminary final winners demonstrate this issue. From 2000 to 2015, the two qualifying final winners won their corresponding preliminary finals 75 percent of the time. From 2016 to 2020, both qualifying final winners have won the preliminary finals only 29 percent of the time.

Since the introduction of the bye in 2016 – none of the seven grand finals have included the teams that finished 1st and second on the ladder.

Another significant factor impacting the top team each season is that the Grand Final is played at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. This means that interstate teams that finish first are disadvantaged if they play a Victorian team in the Grand Final.

This was seen in 2017 (1st placed Adelaide v third-placed Richmond), 2016 (first-placed Swans v seventh-placed Bulldogs) and 2014 (first-placed Swans v second-placed Hawthorn).

A final determining factor is that the AFL grand final is a one-off match. History is littered with dominant teams from individual seasons having bad days and losing grand finals (Adelaide in 2017, Hawthorn in 2012, Geelong in 2008 and Essendon 2001).

A one-off match has a higher propensity for random events to occur or for injury/suspension to materially impact the result. Think Geelong’s inaccurate goal-kicking in 2008 or Buddy Franklin’s rolled ankle in the first quarter of the 2016 Grand Final.

This format differs to other sports that utilise a series of seven (NBA playoffs), five (the Ashes) or two matches (Champions League knockout stages).

Will the table topping Magpies buck the trend this year, or will the first placed curse continue?