Top four on the line? Origin or not, the Sharks-Broncos clash might be season-defining for the winner

Just quietly, we might be about to see one of the defining matches of the season on Saturday. 

Not just in entertainment terms – though that could certainly happen – but in defining where this year ends up, and what it ends up being about.

That’s awfully vague, right? Sure, but let’s dig deeper. Much as the NRL in 2023 has been defined by unpredictability – you’ll notice the return of the word ‘logjam’ to the discourse – it’s actually begun to take shape in the last month, especially in the period leading into Origin.

Though the convoluted system of byes obscures it somewhat, we’ve seen the biggest players make their biggest moves, with Penrith returning to the summit and Souths staking their case as the biggest challenger to them.

The next tier, however, is vital. With 50% of the season gone, it would be a huge shock if the Bunnies and Panthers weren’t the two duking out the Minor Premiership, and the question now is whether anyone else is quite on their level.

That’s where Cronulla v Brisbane comes in. It’s the meeting of the two mostly likely, and could kick into gear a sequence of events that sees one take take top four honours and the other miss out.

The Broncos have the most wins, with nine, but fall squarely into rung below given their performances against those they will likely face in the race for top four. 

They’ve come off second best with Souths and Melbourne while splitting the difference in two games with the Panthers. 

The nine wins is something of a mirage: only seven of their 13 games (with no Bye) have been against teams currently in the top half, and in that they’re 3-4, with three of the four at home to boot. 

Alternatively, one might say that six of their nine wins have been facing seems that have been poor to start the year, and one could also add that this is their first game in Sydney since Round 1.

All in all, it has a whiff of the fool’s gold about it, and seems like the sort of thing that’ll get you straight-setted out of the playoffs unless things improve.

That’s a feeling the Sharks know all too well. That was their experience last year, where a rails run in the regular season was little preparation for the tough stuff in September. 

Martin Taupau. (Photo by Kerry Marshall/Getty Images)

In 2023, they’re yet to face Penrith or the Storm, and have lost to Souths, the Raiders, Dolphins and the Warriors for a 0-4 record against teams currently in the top 8.

Like Brisbane, too, the travelling aspect is a factor with Cronulla. They’ve had two byes and left Sydney three times in 11 rounds: but one was Magic (where they lost), another was Canberra (hardly travel, and they lost) and the third was their own bush game against Newcastle in Coffs Harbour.

This fixture might be equally asterisked should the Sharks win, too: Brisbane had five in Origin, where Cronulla had just one, Nicho Hynes, who played just 12 minutes.

It’s something that dogged them in 2022, too. They picked up theoretically meaningful victories over the Storm and Cowboys, but both were ultimately worthless at the end of the year. Their easy draw left them cold when the biggest fixtures rolled around.

But life does get a lot easier when you make the top four, and that is definitely on the cards again if they pick up the two points in the Shire on Saturday night. 

Indeed, it’s near-assured: though there are away games with Storm (next week) and then the Panthers and Bunnies in consecutive rounds, Cronulla will start as favourites in every other game. It would be theirs to lose.

For Brisbane, the same would be true. They have three free weekends – so six points – outstanding as a result of having received no Byes, and nine wins on the board of the 16 that were required to earn a double chance in the finals last year.

Win tomorrow and they could go 50% from here out and still make it, with home ties against the Knights, Titans and Dolphins as their next three fixtures, with two byes in between.

For Kevin Walters, that is massive. His team have perhaps the biggest home advantage in the league, and securing at least one Finals game at Suncorp is a total game changer. 

It’s possible that they could pass the threshold for making the eight before the end of Origin, and before they lose their stadium to the FIFA Women’s World Cup: after they face the Titans on June 25, that will be their last game on Caxton Street until the final round of the regular season.

For a team that collapsed so badly last year that they went from top four to out of the finals in record time, the ability to bank these points early is the biggest confidence boost they could ask for. 

It turns panic into preparation and gives them the opportunity to rest players if needs be – as they might have done with Payne Haas and Pat Carrigan, had they been able, and indeed, were forced into with Selwyn Cobbo. 

Jesse Ramien celebrates after scoring. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Suddenly the weight of expectation is lessened in rugby league’s most expectation-leaden environment. It’s why you bank the wins early.

If Craig Fitzgibbon’s men get up, the same might well be true. Their Origin last year performed a similar role, all but securing a Finals place ahead of time, but the fixtures this time around assist them in aiming up.

What Brisbane experienced prior to Origin, where they suffered three defeats from four against fellow contenders, might be what makes their season. They were shown the level early, and at at the perfect time to stop them getting carried away.

Should the Sharks bank points in the rep period, they will come out of it confident and then face a tough trip to New Zealand, followed by Manly at home and then the Panthers and Souths. They, too, will likely get a frank reminder of the level needed come September time.

That never really happened last year, and they paid the cost when the whips got cracking.

Saturday night in the Shire could be a quantum moment for both of these teams, on where we look back and wonder if it wasn’t the most important game of the year in defining where they ultimately ended up.

Sure, Brisbane will have a few out – Cobbo is confirmed not to play, and Walsh is unlikely – but those that do back up need to be at their best. If they can get it over the line, it’ll pay off big time in the long run.

For Cronulla, they know this is where their season might be decided. Home game against a side with men out, packed Shark Park on a Saturday night. It’s built for them to make their statement.

If they don’t, it might get a lot tougher further down the line.