A brutal week of tipping, where 50 percent was a decent return, resulted in two panellists falling back to the pack. It didn’t seem that hard at the time but we should be thanking our lucky stars that tough tipping means great rugby contests.
While Christy’s two correct tips left him precariously perched in equal first spot with Nick (three correct), Hamish’s rules on who he must and can’t tip each week seriously threaten his ambitions. Tony also picked up three last week to sit one off his arch nemesis Christy. After this week they’ll either be tied or Christy will hold a two point lead over the bossman.
Christy Doran
Hurricanes, Rebels, Force, Brumbies, Chiefs, Blues
Jeopardy might be great for the competition, but it proved difficult for tipsters last week.
Tane Edmed’s missed shot at the sticks and the Crusaders dropping the ball every second phase didn’t help with tipping either.
Anyway, it’s round four we’re talking about and no longer the past. So, on that note.
Even though I like the look of the Crusaders’ backline and the influential figures of Owen Franks and Ryan Crotty on the bench, Scott Barrett’s absence has tipped the scales for me in the favour of the Hurricanes.
All the pressure is on the Reds to back up their brilliant win over the Chiefs. The Reds’ coaching staff have done their best to try and talk down their achievements, but consistency hasn’t always been Australian rugby’s best friend. T
The Rebels will attack the Reds’ tight-five and go after Harry McLaughlin-Phillips, who faces a stern test at fly-half because starting matches is a different kettle of fish than coming off the bench.
The Western Force simply have to win, and I think they will given they’re playing at home and it’s a long trip over west for Moana Pasifika.
Harry McLaughlin-Phillips of the Reds looks to pass during the round one Super Rugby Pacific match between Queensland Reds and NSW Waratahs at Suncorp Stadium, on February 24, 2024, in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
The Brumbies have underwhelmed thus far, but there’s more physicality in their pack this week and the loss of Rhys Patchell and Hugh Renton could prove costly for the Highlanders.
Chiefs, by lots.
As for the Tahs, they’ll have to play out of their skins to stop the Blues who will be hurting after their loss to the Hurricanes last week. The absence of a recognised hooker could prove difficult.
Tane Edmed of the Waratahs reacts after missing a penalty goal to win the match during the round three Super Rugby Pacific match between NSW Waratahs and Highlanders at Allianz Stadium, on March 08, 2024, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Nick Wasiliev
Hurricanes, Reds, Force, Highlanders, Chiefs, Blues
After getting told off by Harps last week, I’ll aim to use fewer exclamation marks…. or maybe I won’t! We’re meant to be young, exciting whipper-snappers for a reason! Get keen folks!
Super Rugby right now is a tough beast to wrangle, tipping-wise. It’s the best kind of problem to have.
However, this weekend should be the real test of where the chasing pack is. A lot more games in New Zealand, and matches against tougher opposition.
The Crusaders have an ugly casualty ward mounting up, and the loss of Scott Barrett is a major omission. Canes by comparison are looking strong with their best season opening in nine years, and it’s been a long time since they’ve won in CC. Believe, Wellington.
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While on paper the Rebels’ forward pack looks very dangerous, I’m backing Queensland. Kiss has got that side humming beautifully, and given how well many of the players stood up against the Chiefs, I back them to trust the systems in place and deliver a good result.
No hyperbole – the Force need to beat Moana Pasifika. When they have looked good, the Force have been great – but the losses are stacking up, and losing this game at home effectively kills any momentum. Michael Wells is a big loss but adding more experience to the bench in swapping Issak Fines-Leleiwasa for Nic White is a great move. Moana have named their most experienced heads in Julian Savea, Christian Lealifano and Sekope Kepu, they are sniffing a win here.
The Brumbies might have got back to winning ways, but the fan in me is not happy. Questions abound – the squad looks off the pace and lacks punch. Larkham’s decision to deploy experience off the bench is a bold one, however, if they churn out another middling performance, the Highlanders win this game, even with Rhys Patchell getting rested.
Chiefs will be glad to be back in Hamilton after a long fortnight in Australia and will be hungry to prove a point after their loss to the Reds. Josh Lord is a welcome return for the home side, and while they’ll be up against a high-flying Drua, the Fijians’ inability to perform on the road is hard to ignore.
Lastly, aside from the Friday derbies, we may have a match of the round in Sydney. The Waratahs’ depth at hooker is concerning now Mahe Vailanu is out, and Max Jorgensen is also a major loss. Coleman’s decision to move experienced heads to the bench is bold, but it may be a bridge too far given the depth at the Blues. The men from Auckland should get home by less than ten.
Hamish Bidwell
Crusaders, Rebels, Force, Highlanders, Chiefs, Waratahs
I suspect the Hurricanes will win, as I’m sure many folk do. But I can’t bring myself to tip against the Crusaders.
Again, history might show I backed the wrong horse when the Rebels play the Reds. This tip’s born out for my admiration for the way the Rebels are performing in adverse circumstances.
I’m thinking the Western Force by 10 to 12 points against Moana.
The next one’s a hard one, with home-field advantage being the sole reason for taking the Highlanders.
Chiefs vs Fiji could be a bit of a procession. Chiefs by 20.
And finally, a bit like the Crusaders vs Hurricanes, I don’t care if I’m wrong: I just don’t like tipping the Blues.
Tony Harper
Hurricanes, Reds, Force, Brumbies, Chiefs, Blues
If I don’t nail six out of six this week I’ll genuinely be stunned. Then again, I thought that the past three weeks as well and am currently tied last with a guy who’s seriously handicapped because “I don’t care if I’m wrong”.
So why am I as self confident (and deluded) as Sir Clive Woodward?
The Crusaders are cooked. They’re 0-3, and the injuries are piling up. Scott Barrett’s absence is massive in the context of the experience already shorn from that team. The line is set at 2.5 points with the Canes favourites. That looks like money for jam – even though it’s the first time since 2015 that the Canes have gone into an away match against the Crusaders as favourites. The Crusaders won that one, mind.
Carter Gordon of the Rebels is tackled during the round nine Super Rugby Pacific match between Melbourne Rebels and Crusaders at AAMI Park, on April 21, 2023, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
A year ago Carter Gordon was the fresh young thing coming up against some slightly fresh young things and ending the season as a Wallabies starter. It’s a test for HMP against such an old hand but that aside, the Reds are on a roll and last week’s defiance will give them a boost in spirit. The Reds are clear bookies favourites.
I’ll tip the Force but without great enthusiasm. Moana Pasifika are boosted by old brains. And Moana Pasifika are risky with old legs.
Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham has done some shuffling to get some more energy in his pack from the start. This one is a coin flip – the line is set at 0.5 points with the Brumbies the narrowest of favourites.
Tipped the Chiefs like everyone else. Want the Dru to win like everyone else.
The Blues should have enough for the Tahs – and I’m expecting another big game from the majestic Hoskins Sotutu .
| Round 4 | Christy | Nick | Hamish | Tony | The Crowd |
| Overall | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Last week | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| CRU v HUR | Hurricanes | Hurricanes | Crusaders | Hurricanes | ? |
| REB v RED | Rebels | Reds | Rebels | Reds | ? |
| FOR v MOA | Force | Force | Force | Force | ? |
| HIG v BRU | Brumbies | Highlanders | Highlanders | Brumbies | ? |
| CHI v DRU | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | ? |
| WAR v BLU | Blues | Blues | Waratahs | Blues | ? |
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Ankle-tapped Waterboy
Roar Rookie
Forgot about this. Maybe all the naysayers finally have worn out my good humour. Threw in something for Saturday.
Paul D
Roar Rookie
Might skip this weeks game and just watch the win over the Crusaders again
Otago Man
Roar Rookie
I'm not unhappy that the ref played it that way but just think it was a non contest in the scrum. Bell will need to be better for the Wallabies because I think other refs are going to ping him.
AgainAgain
Roar Rookie
The problem is thugby is people’s need to call others thugs and the like. You don’t know the guy from a bar of soap but here you are judge and jury calling him a thug. It is ok to be outraged at the decision as some people apparently need to be, but I don’t see the pointor value in labelling people. It just drags any chance of a reasonable conversation down into a lot of emotional nonsense. It was clearly late, but the rest is just made up including that Lynagh went off as a result of the tackle. I have heard comments it was 2 or 3 seconds late, it was a shoulder charge etc. The tackle itself was perfectly legit if he had made it while Lynagh still had the ball. However, it was blatant and that is enough to make it a YC, so on that we agree. The other issue is Harrison who was a complete flog on the field is showing he is the same off it. He pushes a load of made up nonsense and it is gobbled up by fans and repeated here, like Lynagh going off as a result of the tackle. This was not supported by anyone, coach,medical staff etc. but here you are pushing the same thing. In addition when a chiefs player made an illegal tackle for over the shoulder and got pinged Harrison was all over it, yet moments later when a reds player got pinged for the same, he was calling it soft. All my point is, how much better would it be if people set aside the bs and just commented on facts and at least attempted to be balanced in their comments. I have bern told because I point out these things I am justifying Finau’s late tackle, think he’s a hero because of it as do all kiwis, when no-one Iknow or comments I have made or read do any such thing. And to be clear that is not targetted at you, but just a general comment about many of the comments I have read on this site and commentators like Harrison who tbink it good to provide a completely unbalanced perspective with much of his commentary. He’s the new Kearns imho. But yes, blatantly late tackles should be yellow.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
What can I say? Did you not see that the Reds' flyhalf was substituted very soon after the grub late hit. And I agree with you that calling for a red card is pure stupidity, but its a dead set yellow card offence no matter who put the hit on. Getting away with it just gives a green light to more late hits, and what I am saying in my post is the Chiefs' #10 might be targeted if they see that green light. In the Rebels' match against Fijian Drua last year in Fiji, the Rebels' flyhalf, Carter Gordon, was smashed about 4 times by airborne tacklers. One hit was a rip snorter and legal, the others were all off the ball and/or late. What comes around, goes around. :shocked:
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Perhaps the referees are listening to the punters. Ergo: is the scrum a penalty machine or to get the ball back into play after the big boppers have contested for it? If the ball is out, then play on! :silly:
Otago Man
Roar Rookie
One comment I have is on the scrum contest that never happened for the Highlanders Waratahs. Numerous times Bell hinged but ref just wanted ball out.
Ballymore Brumby
Roar Pro
Little bit surprised the Rebs are getting as much of a chance being given here, however it might be a bit spicy so hopefully Queensland can keep their discipline and not let emotion go to their heads. Bonus tip that Taniela Tupou gets carded.
Old school rugby
Roar Rookie
Hurricanes, Rebels (did I say that out loud), Force, Brumbies, Chiefs, Blues. For the Reds it depends on the scrum and the flyhalf. The Rebels are stronger.
Footy Franks
Roar Rookie
Another great Shute shield hooker from Gordon steps up for the tahs. Surely RA should give a lot of coin to the Shute shield for providing way over half of the super players. Turn the Shute off is like turning the player tap off.
Colin Fenwick
Roar Rookie
I've changed my mind and think the Crusaders will get up against the Hurricanes. With their backs against the wall, being at home and the Hurricanes prone to bouts of inconsistency, this might just be the time they do get into their stride.
AgainAgain
Roar Rookie
Just put of curiousity what 10 was taken off the field from a late tackle? Ypu sure you aren't just embellishing and making up stuff here. I've seen a fair bit of it latelyboth on here and some of the more harebrained commentators. One commentator said the tackle was too aggressive and could have been upgraded to a red. It does give me a laugh though, so thee is that.
Link
Roar Rookie
Not seeing all the rebels confidence. Smashed by brumbies and then wins against two of the lowest ranked teams. Whereas reds have played the two strongest and a tahs team that is performing much better than expected.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Last weekend separated the tipping men from the novices. My 4 from 6 was good considering I blew it on trusting the Tahs to be able to land a bl00dy kick from 38m right in front. I also figured the Reds would cark it in the last 2-0 minutes after the torrid match against the Hurricanes. Sadly I blew my chance to go tops. Anyhow, onto Round 4. - Crusaders have finally put a decent halfback in but still have a novice flyhalf which is hurting them big time. Normally you would say the Borg at home are too strong, but I cannot see them getting past the loss of S.Barrett and his rugby IP. Add that DuP.Kirifi is back in town and Digger’s mob are looking really good. Hurricanes by 8-10. - The Rebels’ pack just looks so damned good on paper, while the Reds fast lightweights know their way to a breakdown in double quick time. Rugby is played on grass, not paper. Losing S.Fa'agase is a blow but the Reds have well and truly held their own against 3 pretty good packs and should do the same here. Their biggest danger is F.Daugunu, one of their alma mater who is as good as most 7’s for pinching the ball in defence rucks. Too many weak links in the Rebel reserves. Reds by 4. - Force vs Pasifika is almost a coin toss. Both sides have good coaches but also lots of weak links in their 23. Force at home to do the job by 6. - This game is a banana skin. Brumbies seem to have lost that spark this year, well now is the time to find it. Highlanders’ scrum was expected by some to moider Them Noble Tahs last week. It didn’t happen and is unlikely to happen this week also. A small fast Brumby back-3 is a danger to both their opponents and to their own defence. The Penguin backline will take advantage and win this one at home by 5. - Chiefs and Fijian Drua in sunny downtown Hamiliton will be one way traffic. Sorry Fiji but this Chiefs’ mob are really really good, cruel brutal piggies and an electric back line. Biggest interest for me will be “have the Drua noted the recent tendency of late crash tackles to take the #10 off his game (and feet and sometimes off the field)? Will the Drua boys be licking their chops as little Damian runs sideways". Chiefs by 19. - Them Noble Tahs (TNT) take on RT’s mob from Auckland in what could be a cracker of a game or could be another cakewalk to another *#@+% Kiwi team. Sydney weather is perfect for Rugby, so the big boppers from NZ will love the conditions. TNT’s starting front and 2nd rows look frightening weak although the Blues’ starting locks are “WHO????” quality. The last time I saw Marky Mark play fullback was in M.Hooper’s Sydney swansong against Moana Pasifika and Marky played a shocker. Sadly I think this game will be over by half-time. Blues by 19 (I feel so dirty now). In Short: Hurricanes, Reds, Force, Highlanders. Chiefs. and finally the Blues.
Bliksem
Roar Rookie
:stoked: Everyone picking the Force is a bad omen.
The Late News
Roar Rookie
So all the panel tips the Force hey? That sounds suss!
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
Be hard for the 'Nags ' to win under the roof, even without Renton, the Landers should win.
robbo999
Roar Rookie
I managed to nail the first four games last week - going for a full set this week. Canes by 10, Rebels, Force, Brumbies, Chiefs and Blues
Otago Man
Roar Rookie
Here's hoping.
Mirt
Roar Rookie
Brumbies and Crusaders have got to get into there stride sooner or later, but maybe not this weekend