Brisbane has started the season poorly, and different theories abound as to why.
Prominent among those over the last week has been the reporting of internal unrest after various happenings related to an off-season trip divided the playing group.
These allegations are always hard to prove, and the impact on the football results is even harder to decipher.
Could that Lions US trip be this year’s version of the infamous Adelaide boot camp? Both teams were losing grand finalists after all, the Lions last year, and the Crows in 2017.
What’s forgotten in the aftermath of the Adelaide fall-out is that they were actually sitting in the top four after nine rounds of 2018, including an early season victory over their premiership conqueror Richmond, to theoretically vanquish some demons.
These things can fester under the surface for a while before taking hold, and the Crows that year fell apart heading into the bye rounds, never to recover.
Brisbane is certainly playing like a team lacking in connection, a problem that is materializing in the forward half of the ground.
Starting in 2019, the Lions have ranked #1, #3, #1, #1 and #1 in scoring. No team has kicked more goals than them in the last five years, and it’s a big gap to second.
We all know the names – Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, Zac Bailey, Cam Rayner and Lincoln McCarthy, with support from the likes of Dayne Zorko and Hugh McCluggage, plus others no longer at the club like Dan McStay and Jack Gunston.
Brisbane has played attractive attacking football under Chris Fagan, with plenty of firepower to capitalize on it.
Where the Lions haven’t been as strong is defensively, having never rated in the top four for scores against while Fagan has been coach. Even making the grand final last season, they were ranked sixth. In 2022, it was 10th.
Perhaps Brisbane is trying to short things up defensively this year, and hasn’t found that balance yet. If so, it’s not working given they are conceding 90 points per game.
What makes it all stranger is the fact the Lions were 46 points up against Carlton in Round 1, 25 points up against Fremantle in Round 2, and had nine scoring shots to Collingwood’s 0 in the second quarter on the weekend.
Chris Fagan (Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
They are having their period of dominance in games, but aren’t making the most of it, it’s not lasting long enough, and they have been unable to prevent runs of goals against themselves.
It could be that the playing group is mentally tired, having tried to climb the mountain for five years in a row, getting close but not being able to seal the deal with premiership glory.
Five years is a long time to go unrewarded with a playing group that isn’t getting any younger.
From 2008-2010 we saw both St Kilda and Western Bulldogs not be able to turn consistent top-four finishes into a flag, and then drop away.
St Kilda drew the first grand final in 2010, in similar agonizing circumstances to Brisbane’s loss to Collingwood last year, and only won one of their first seven games in 2011.
The Dogs lost three prelims in a row and then tumbled out of the eight altogether.
From 2005-09, Adelaide made finals every year, finished top five four times, including on top of the ladder and were premiership favourites at various points. They could never crack it for the big win – and eventually fell away.
In more recent times, GWS have been the cautionary tale.
Preliminary finals in 2016-17, semi-finals in 2018 and 2021, either side of a grand final loss in 2019, before tumbling all the way to a bottom three finish in 2022 – that was a year where they played tired football, ultimately ending in Leon Cameron getting rightly sacked.
A new coach was exactly what they needed.
This is Chris Fagan’s eighth year at the helm, and he is contracted for a ninth on top of it. One of the problems we see constantly in the AFL is that clubs don’t change coaches of good teams quickly enough. They almost always wait until it’s too late.
GWS moving on Cameron far too late is just one example of it, and we are seeing what Adam Kingsley is doing with the Giants now.
Collingwood held on for too long to Nathan Buckley and won a flag with Craig McRae once a change was made.
Chris Scott won a premiership in his first season at Geelong after Bomber Thompson was cooked.
Richmond didn’t act on Damien Hardwick like they should have two years ago, and look where they are now.
Hawthorn could have been brave with Alastair Clarkson instead of waiting until they were a basket case.
Port refuses to move on from Ken Hinkley despite no grand final appearances in 11 years, where the Power either don’t make finals or lose them.
Let’s not even get started on Adam Simpson and West Coast or Luke Beveridge at the Dogs.
Brisbane have gotten themselves into a hole, and it will be hard to recover from.
They’ll surely get their win against North Melbourne this week, and sometimes that’s all it takes. It doesn’t matter who the win is over, confidence is found, and all the old connections get remembered and built upon.
We’ll get to see how far that confidence takes them in the following three weeks, against Melbourne at the MCG, Geelong at the Gabba, and GWS in Canberra.
By the end of that run, we’ll know whether the Lions are back in the hunt or whether 2024 will be a wasted year.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
The point I was making was that they did it with a lack of high end draft picks, which no other team has done. I would say Geelong has had the least number of draft picks in the top 10 by a country mile. The ones you mentioned are irrelevant as they were players that were available to all other teams. It was just Geelong identified a need and picked them up. I wouldn't mention Ablett. Geelong's compensation from GCS was a pittance for one of the best players in the game.
Cinderella's Big Score
Roar Rookie
James Tunstill brought in for this weekend, although the barista keeps his place. Devon Robertson makes way. Not exactly what I had in mind.
Knackaz
Roar Rookie
He doesn’t. He keeps playing that soft hack Hipwood. Fair dinkum, this guy would be a barista if he wasn’t 200cm. He’s certainly not an AFL footballer …
Arges Tuft
Roar Rookie
Poppy! He better win one soon. Just havent had that spark this year yet. Ide say if they dont get there this year, pops gone!
deadly demon
Roar Rookie
one of the interesting facts in this article is how dynamite the lions forward line is. My team the Dees have an awesome backline, very good midfield and questionable tho tho sometimes ok forward line our defense is our strength and even tho we have only the recent 2021 flag to show for it we should be around top 4 for the next say 5 years. our defence is crucial to our ongoing success
.kraM
Roar Rookie
McRae took over a team who missed finals the previous year but made finals the three seasons prior. Not sure about darkest hour.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Yeah that was the straw that broke the camels back but even then the Blues kicked 11.20 to 15.8 (including 2.7 to 3.1 in the last). They also had 74 more disposals and laid 13 more tackles.
Wikipetia
Roar Rookie
i am pretty sure i wasn't paying much attention at the time, but the rd 22 loss to Gold Coast might seem totemic? win and they go level with 8th, put pressure on the Dockers and roos. Gold Coast, a young young young team with 500 games experience outside Ablett and Brown, kicked the first 6. Gold Coast had only 2 wins to that point (Richmondddddddddddddddddd!) sometimes those sorts of losses catalyse a doubtful situation. unfairly. this is of course before the decision to stick with hardwick but rebuild him, and everything around him, bore fruit. Had this happened in 22 Ratten may have survived.
Wikipetia
Roar Rookie
Yes we were the same and that is part of the Taranto-Hopper logic. A missing middle, just overpaid (but contracted players cost- see Kelly…) We had a dead run of draft picks. For 3-4 years. No early picks but to be fair some of our best work was with the seconds and thirds and rookies and stuff - Lambert. Types. We don’t seem to have pulled off a coup in those spaces for 5 years I reckon. And have lost prob 70% of the draftees from 2016-2020 - while hanging on to older players I guess it just shows how much has to go right to get in the frame, and how quickly any one of those factors diminishing pushes you back in the pack. Have a few things turn… down you go. Of course it’s an easier ride down with a flag in the bag. And with 3 it’s just a meh whatever sort of thing. The teams you feel for are the ones who got close and don’t convert, and then have to reset - the turn of the decade Saints, the recent Crows, with Port and Brisbane still with enough time to join the former not the latter
nics
Roar Rookie
The Eagles, like a gambler whose horse just lost, probably got sucked into the romance of getting a flag for Naitanui and Sheppard, and hoping the core would stay fit and motivated. With Kelly – we hoped for McCartney but got Starr albeit he’s still a pretty handy player. Those were great seasons though – I distinctly recall that Richmond game when your lot came back in the wet. I also recall that other game at Optus which as it turns out was a false dawn. Mind you finishing 5-8 does nothing for your draft haul. There’s a real hole in our list where the 25 year olds should be. We delisted some players in that age group last year – sometimes those mid draft gems are hard to pick!
Gamechanger
Roar Rookie
Fagan needs a premiership NOW. The work in progress has been progressing long enough. Grandfinal losers last year. This year, OR he needs to be moved on. Lions supporters have been patient enough.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
Ratten may not have been the “one” but he was certainly better than the next three coaches that followed. Sticks Kernahan and Greg Swann have a lot to answer for and both jumped ship quickly when it became obvious how wrong they got it.
Wikipetia
Roar Rookie
And yes there was every reason to think that topping up while you were up top could jag another flag. Imagine that absolute MCG classic late in 2019 goes the Eagles’ way… it could have been back to back flags, and Richmond instead confused going into COVID Obviously all trades are a risk. I think that was one worth taking. Most sides would have done it I submit, he looked a deadset top shelfer and Geelong have been incredible at buying cheap and selling at overs. It’s a bit like the Melbourne Cup I reckon, success is being a chance with 200 to go. And then a lot has to go right to actually win the thing.
Wikipetia
Roar Rookie
We are all civil when we are losing! Richmond does losing well, over the journey!
nics
Roar Rookie
Yup – all too easy in hindsight ;). In retrospect the Kelly trade killed us but we had genuine aspirations in 2019 and 2020. After that on the other hand it has been a car crash of injuries and ill-timed contract extensions. Glad to have a chat to a civil Tigers fan though. You give some of them a bad name ???? (acknowledging that my tribe has its set of tools). I might be ignoring Realist for a while. Hopefully he doesn’t get too lonely in mum’s basement.
Wikipetia
Roar Rookie
i think the Cats found a way to get a continuous supply of top end talent, adding to the impressive base there after the triple premierships: - Stanley as a second rounder - Dangerfield (9 and 28 for a former #10) - Henderson, a former pick 8 - Zac Smith for two third rounders - Tuohy - Gaz coming home - Rohan, a former pick 6, for 60+! - and then the great one, the real Jezza. that's a lot of talent, some of it unrealised. well done to Geelong for getting so many deals well to their advantage and then the piece de resistance, getting Jack Bowes and pick 7, for pick 60whatevs, I guess because they had managed their cap well? and then Dalhaus, Smith, Stengle come in as free agents. hey presto, we win a flag. ----- I do think you could be right about the Lions' lack of fit, maybe too many of the same sorts. I mean they had fantastic utility types in 2001-3- so did the Bombers. but both teams had absolute hard mongrels to offset that. Brisbane a bit too snippy, rather than actual tough? with the barometer and robinson and those guys gone, as well as Hodgey? could be a thing?
Cinderella's Big Score
Roar Rookie
The Lions did not deserve to win last year. They stayed close on the scoreboard by repeatedly kicking goals out of their backside. But they were well beaten on the day. If they think that they were close to a premiership because of very selective sliding door moments, then they are deluding themselves. But actually I don't think they do. I think the hard heads at the club realize they were a fair way off.
Tufanooo
Roar Rookie
Scott is a Sheedy. A terrific coach, but probably not the best out there. He has left 2 flag opportunities in the draw. Blew 2020 should have been running around the MCG in 2016 against the Dogs. That prelim was so bad.
Tufanooo
Roar Rookie
Different situation. You can account for Sydney being better due to the absence of one giant drag on the ticket: Buddy Franklin. Love the guy, but he was hurting the team so badly last year by still being there. That forward line is so much more energised without him sucking away the ball.
Tufanooo
Roar Rookie
Four flags at reasonable intervals is a pretty good effort. But yes, there is no denying that in 1999-2001 walking away with only one flag was definitely underperformance. And also, the game needed to see North v Essendon square off in a GF. A fluke prelim performance in 1999 cost everyone the grand final of the century.