We kick off the 2018 finals with the battle of second and third. The Rabbitohs really should have locked up the minor premiership but three losses from their final four games saw them slide to third on for and against.
That means they have to travel to Melbourne and face the Purple People roaring from their green seats. With their cowbell. Because we need more cowbell…
This shapes up to be a cracker of a game.
Defence
Team Stats – average per game 2018
| Stat | Storm | Rabbitohs | Difference |
| Line breaks conceded | 3.5 (#2 NRL) | 3.5 (#2 NRL) | 0 |
| Missed tackles | 22.8 (#2 NRL) | 24.9 | +2.1 Rabbitohs |
| Tries conceded | 2.5 (#2 NRL) | 3 | +0.5 Rabbitohs |
| Errors | 10.9 | 10.5 | +0.4 Storm |
| Meters conceded | 1282.1 (#1 NRL) | 1351.2 | +69.1 Rabbitohs |
| Penalties conceded | 7.9 | 8.4 | +0.5 Rabbitohs |
| Sin Bins | 0.2 (5) | 0.3 (7) | +2 Rabbitohs |
While the Storm have the edge over the Rabbitohs across most of these categories, there really isn’t very much in it.
The Storm, as we have grown to expect, are leaders across many defensive categories in the NRL. They don’t like to miss tackles or concede metres, line breaks or tries. It is the cornerstone of their game.
However, since the departure of Cooper Cronk to the Roosters their error rate has grown, which in turn puts pressure on all other areas of their game. While the Rabbitohs are by no means a Bellamy-esque relentless defensive machine, their defence is good. And you can be sure they’ll be pushing the Storm’s capabilities to the limits.
Storm football manager Frank Ponissi and Storm coach Craig Bellamy (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
Player stats
| Stat | Storm | Rabbitohs |
| Tackles made | C. Smith 34.9 | D. Cook 39.2 |
| F. Kaufusi 31.5 | A. Crichton 31 | |
| D. Finucane 26.6 | C. Murray 28.4 | |
| J. Stimson 22.6 | S. Burgess 27.5 | |
| Missed tackles | C. Munster 2.9 | D. Gagai 3.2 |
| J. Hughes 2.7 | S. Burgess 3.2 | |
| W. Chamber 2.7 | T. Burgess 2 | |
| Penalties conceded | C. Munster 0.9 | S. Burgess 1.2 |
| D. Finucane 0.7 | A. Crichton 1 | |
| C. Smith 0.7 | A. Reynolds 0.9 | |
| N. Asofa-Solomona 0.7 | G. Burgess 0.8 | |
| Errors | W. Chambers 1.3 | C. Walker 1.3 |
| S. Vunivalu 1.3 | A. Reynolds 1.3 | |
| B. Slater 1.2 | A. Crichton 1.2 | |
| S. Burgess 1.1 |
The top four tacklers for both sides gives an indication to their strategies. The Storm have two tackling machines in Cam Smith and Felise Kaufusi who make 30+ a game.
They are supported by seven other players who make 20+ tackles. That’s nine players who carry a big workload. They really spread the workload amongst the team. The Rabbitohs have just six big tacklers in their ranks.
The missed tacklers give an indication of where in the line will be targeted by both sides.
The Storm are going to be sending masses of traffic at Dane Gagai. He can expect a very hectic night indeed. How well he performs in the defensive line will go a long way to deciding this game I reckon.
Similarly, Jahrome Hughes – back in the number seven jersey for the first time since the Storm’s Round 22 loss at home to the Sharks when he missed seven tackles – will have a target on him that the Rabbitohs will be aiming at all night long.
Craig Bellamy will be missing Cooper Cronk’s awesome defence at halfback possibly more than anything the great bent nosed one ever provided.
Sam Burgess and Gus Crichton will concede penalties in this game. So will Cam Munster, and probably Cam Smith too. However, as we know from previous study the referees do not make a habit of blowing the pea out of their whistles come finals time.
When it comes to errors, both sides errors are usually positive attack gone awry, rather than stupid drops in their own red zones.
Attack
Team Stats – average per game 2018
| Stat | Storm | Rabbitohs | Difference |
| Line breaks | 4.1 | 6.1 (#1 NRL) | +2 Rabbitohs |
| Tackle breaks | 27.1 | 29.5 | +2.4 Rabbitohs |
| Tries scored | 3.5 | 4.1 (#1 NRL) | +0.6 Rabbitohs |
| Meters made | 1352 | 1453 (#1 NRL) | +101 Rabbitohs |
| Penalties received | 9.3 (#1 NRL) | 8.5 | +0.8 Storm |
| Offloads | 9.9 | 10.2 | +0.3 Rabbitohs |
If the Storm have the edge in defence, the Rabbitohs surely have it in attack. They lead in all categories except penalties received.
In fact, the Rabbitohs NRL-leading stats in attack virtually nullify all of the Storms defensive advantages.
This cancels out points to a very close match indeed.
Player stats
| Stat | Storm | Rabbitohs |
| Tackle breaks | J. Addo-Carr 4 | D. Gagai 3.5 |
| B. Slater 3.5 | D. Cook 3.2 | |
| J. Hughes 3.1 | A. Crichton 3 | |
| N. Asofa-Solomona 2.8 | C. Walker 2.8 | |
| Line breaks | J. Addo-Carr 0.8 | R. Jennings 0.9 |
| B. Slater 0.6 | C. Graham 0.9 | |
| S. Vunivalu 0.6 | A. Johnston 0.9 | |
| C. Walker 0.7 | ||
| Metres gained | J. Addo-Carr 127 | S. Burgess 131 |
| J. Bromwich 113 | R. Jenning 127 | |
| B. Slater 104 | A. Crichton 120 | |
| G. Inglis 117 | ||
| Tries scored | J. Addo-Carr 17 | R. Jennings 18 |
| S. Vunivalu 13 | C. Walker 12 | |
| C. Scott 8 | G. Inglis 8 | |
| A. Johnston 8 | ||
| Try assists | C. Munster 0.8 | A. Johnston 0.7 |
| B. Slater 0.8 | C. Walker 0.7 | |
| J. Hughes 0.5 | A. Reynolds 0.6 | |
| D. Cook 0.5 | ||
| Line break assists | C. Munster 0.8 | C. Walker 1.1 |
| J. Hughes 0.5 | A. Johnston 0.9 | |
| B. Slater 0.5 | A. Reynolds 0.7 | |
| Offloads | B. Slater 1.2 | S. Burgess 1.8 |
| S. Vunivalu 1 | A. Crichton 1.5 | |
| J. Bromwich 0.9 | D. Cook 1.1 |
There are a few very handy tackle breakers lining up in this game. Josh Addo-Carr has blossomed at the Storm and I just love watching Dane Gagai run the ball.
They are respectively supported by the genius of Billy Slater and Damien Cook, Jahrome Hughes and Gus Crichton.
Look at the line break leaders for both sides, they mostly break the line out wide. So the defence of the wingers will be possibly the deciding factor in this game.
The return of Robert Jennings could not have come at a better time for the Rabbitohs. This is also reflected in each teams try scorers.
In regards to metres gained, the Storm have only three players lining up for this game who average over 100 metres a game.
The Rabbitohs will have seven, one of who is the reborn king of the Burgii – Sam. This may be a crucial difference – if the Rabbits get a roll on.
No surprises that the efficacy of both sides halves combinations will hold a large sway over the outcome of this game. Both sides custodians at the back will also need to fire.
The Storm must try and stop Sam Burgess and Angus Crichton offloading or things could go very poorly for them. Easier said than done though.
Sam Burgess of the Rabbitohs. (AAP Image/Richard Wainwright)
The danger men
Cam Munster
Remember Origin three 2017 where Cam Munster absolutely went off? He needs to do that for the Storm in this game. He needs to attack and defend like a man possessed.
If he starts to dominate in attack then it could be a very long night for the Bunnies. He needs to be at his running best. We all know he can do it too.
AAP Image/David Mariuz
Billy Slater
Slater has been an ornament to the game in the pure attacking skill he has produced for a decade and a half.
He will not be leaving anything in reserve in this game. He’ll be dedicated to going out a winner. That should set off panic alarms for the Rabbitohs.
Jahrome Hughes
The Hughes kid has a lot of weight on his shoulders in this game. His defence simply must stand up to the onslaught that is coming his way.
We know he’s got a lot of creativity and talent. We know he can lay on a line break and a try, and he’s got a point to prove that he should be the Storm halfback going forward. Now’s his time to prove that. And he could well.
Sam Burgess
Big Sam is arguably the form forward going into these finals. There is no question that the Bunnies revival in 2018 has been off the back of the forward drive provided by him and his twin brothers.
He will not die wondering in this game and the Storm must curb his impact if they are a chance of winning.
Damien Cook
How good has this bloke been this year? Lightning fast with great vision and good hands. Not only is he the Bunnies best defender, he’s busting tackles and laying on tries. Cam Smith will be doing his utmost to put him off his game – and to try and keep up!
The Bunnies host the Roosters. (AAP Image/Richard Wainwright)
Greg Inglis
Evergreen. That’s Inglis this season. I thought after his knee injury last season that we had seen the best of GI. But this season he has been great.
His performance in the Origin series was outstanding and his leadership and input to the Bunnies has also been excellent.
The injury layoff will see him in great shape to shake the life out of this finals series too.
The Storm overall record
This will be the Storm’s 557th game since they entered the competition in 1998. They have an amazing win rate of 64.75 per cent.
In Melbourne that win rate increases to 71 per cent. At AAMI Park that increases further to 75.2 per cent.
Having said that, they’ve lost four of their 11 matches at home this season to only have a 63.7 win rate…
Finals
This will be the Storm’s 44th finals match in 21 seasons. They’ve won 28 of them (63.6 per cent). In Melbourne they’ve won 13 of the 20 they’ve played (65 per cent).
The Rabbitohs overall record
This is the Rabbitohs’ 2370th game since entering the competition. The have a 52 per cent win rate.
At this venue they’ve played seven times and lost every last one of them. Their average losing margin is 10.3 to 26.7. However, that’s very much effected by the Storm’s 64–6 flogging of the Rabbitohs last time they met here in Round 25 of 2017.
Damien Cook of the Rabbitohs evades Billy Slater (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Finals
The Rabbitohs have played 85 finals matches in their history. Only ten of those have been in the NRL era. They’ve won five and lost five of those.
This is their first finals game since they were bundled out in the first week of the play offs in 2015 by the Sharks.
The History
Overall
This will be just the 30th match between these sides and the Rabbits have only won five of them.
Want to hear a killer stat? The Rabbitohs have never beaten the Storm in Melbourne from 14 attempts.
The last ten
The Storm have won eight of the last ten games between the sides with an aggregate score of 233-126.
At this venue
As above, the Rabbitohs have played seven games at AAMI Park against the Storm and lost all of them.
Finals
These two sides have played one final at AAMI Park before. In 2012 the Storm beat the Bunnies 24-6 en route to the premiership. That is the only finals match that the Rabbitohs have ever played outside Sydney.
However, the next season the Rabbitohs got their revenge, beating the Storm 20-10 to eliminate the Purple Horde.
Those are the only two finals these two sides have ever played against each other.
Form
The Rabbitohs have won four of their last eight games, with only one of those wins being away from home.
The Rabbitohs have won five of their last eight, with two of those losses coming at home to other top eight sides (Sharks and Panthers).
Referees: Ashley Klein, Adam Gee
Neither of these refs have ever done a finals game between these two sides.
In fact, Adam Gee has never officiated a game between the two sides.
Ashley Klein has done three home and away games between the two, with the Rabbitohs winning two of them, the most recent being the round 21 match this year.
Klein has controlled 37 Storm games and the Purple Horde has won 23 of them (62 per cent). He has run 38 Rabbitohs games and they have won 19 of them (50 per cent).
The Storm have won one of the three games Ash Klein has officiated for them this year. The Rabbitohs have won three of their four games under Ash Klein this season.
Gee has run 11 Rabbitohs games and they have won six of them. The Storm have won 13 of the 17 of their games that Gee has controlled.
This will be Adam Gee’s fifth Storm match this season. The Storm have a three and one record under him. The Rabbitohs also have a three and one record under Gee this season.
Who is going to win and why?
Statistically predicted score
Storm 23.5 – Rabbitohs 18.5
Prediction
The Rabbitohs have never won at this ground. They’ve only ever beaten the Storm five times and they’ve never beaten them in Melbourne. They’ve never won a final outside of Melbourne, this being only the second one they’ve ever played outside Sydney.
So why is it that I think the Cardinal and Myrtle are going to win this game? I think the Storm not having a settled halves combination – as the Rabbitohs do – will be debilitating.
Further, the Rabbitohs look better in attack across the field, with big rampaging forwards abounding.
Of course, Cam Smith could give another masterclass in game management and lead the Storm to effectively strangle the Rabbitohs attack. We’ve seen that magic weaved many times before.
But not this time.
I reckon the Bunnies will win.
Rabbitohs 1-12.
TD
Guest
kk, You realize Klein has a conviction record for bias against Storm, right? His "mistakes" in the match shows he is back to his old tricks.
Kurt S
Roar Pro
A wonderful read of your stats as usual, Tim. Not much splits these two teams. I'm guessing recent history of the last month will account for little. I'm backing Slater to have a man of the match worthy performance. He is fresh due to unfortunate family matters meaning he missed last week. There are not many games left in his career and will be primed. If Munster feeds him the right ball, Slater will find the holes as he moves plays in the line in attack. It will come down to individual brilliance I think. Whether it Be Slater's, Addo- Carr, Munster, or the wily old man they call Cam for Melbourne or Gaigai, Cook, GI or S. Burgess we are bound for a cracker and I can't hardly wait.
Worlds Biggest
Roar Pro
Great stuff thanks Tim, this will be a very close run thing. Can Souths get the quicker play the balls they need to get the big piggies rolling ? How much wrestling will the Storm get away with ? The Bunnies really need to play well and take the refs out of the game in terms of contentious calls etc... I think the Bunnies can win but most take there opportunities particularly AJ who needs to look for his outside man with the line open, he has butchered a few of these this season. Should be a cracking game. Go Bunnies !
steveng
Roar Rookie
'Forty Twenty' don't make me laugh, GI is not a 'Queenslander' he was born in Macksville Kempsey NSW (note the NSW bit) GI should have never ever been allowed to play for Qld which is not a part of Qld, there have been some good players that have come out of Macksville and Kempsey (over the years, who I've known in the 70's) and GI should have never ever tarnished that with playing for Qld lol very sad that the NRL has allowed that!
rl
Guest
Hi Tim, congrats again on a great read. A Storm team that has never really clicked this year against a now in-form (albeit flaky) Bunnies. Can Cam Smith skull-drag his team over the line again just by effort and sheer force of will (plus more than his usual management of the refs)? I reckon he's going to be tackling his ring off, and won't have enough left in the tank. As a neutral observer, really looking forward to a cracking game regardless of the outcome!
steveng
Roar Rookie
For me Alex Johnston is the weakest link and he has to be on his A-Game, his fullback positional play against the Tigers was none existent and he made some very ordinary and fundamental mistakes which he has been making week in and week out for a while now but, the Bunnies are still very vulnerable on the edges and the Storm will take every advantage of that. The Bunnies will have to up their game all over the park to have any chance of beating the Storm especially in stopping Slater, Munster, Vunivalu and Addo-Carr where the Bunnies are the most vulnerable. All in all the Bunnies are a great chance and in my opinion the boys will put in a 110% effort to win this one as and if they do, they will have a week off to heal their wounds which was not there after the last time they played, hence their injuries and lost in form. Also, I still think that not having Adam Doueihi is a big blow for the Bunnies as he contributed allot to our attack and defence last time that we played the Storm on the edges. Should be a great game and the Bunnies will pul through, Go the Bunnies!!!
Kevin
Guest
The stats say it will be a close one. I really hope we get a great contest. Storm are so hot and cold atm I think the Rabbits will be too good over the 80minutes. I feel for the Storms young blokes. Such huge pressure. Bring.It.On!
Joe
Roar Rookie
I think that might be very possible since Dean Pay is coach. Michael Mcguire went from Storm to Rabbits and sent his halves (Cleary, Reynolds back then) to Matty since he had that relationship from his Storm days. Same with Siebold who is an ex Storm assistance coach, he sent them this year Walker, Reynolds for extra coaching. Pay is also from the Storm coaching ranks so might do the same.
Jeremy Brown
Roar Pro
Great read Tim - this should be a cracker.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Yeah great stuff Tim. I’m really looking forward to this game. Souths were battling a bit before putting a score on the Tigers and won only one of their last four. So were the Storm with only two wins from their last five. But I feel like both teams are capable of kicking up a gear. Interested to see Sam Burgess. You mentioned he’s been in form but I feel like he’s been holding back a little. Maybe injury, maybe saving himself for the big games. Cook has been quiet since the Melbourne game where he scored that cracking try where he blew them apart up the middle. I’m really flip flopping on this. I think Souths on paper but then I think about the Storm at home. Then I think about GI’s influence. Then the do it for Billy factor, then Storm halves...and on and on. Forced to pick I’ll go with Souths.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
What a great article. Talking about football: and finals football. On paper it should be close, but : Friday night; Bleak City; Bloody Cold; Home ground. Yeah. Oh, and don’t write Bellyache off as worth nothing.
Nat
Roar Guru
He must be able to talk a good game as I'd rate most of those halves a better player than he was. Possibly outshone by the Brother. I always wondered how he went from class-clown on the Footy Show to Fox Expert.
Dirk Diggler
Roar Rookie
Hmm.....Albo Bromwich out of form?? I've heard commentators say he has shouldered a lot of the load since NAS has been out so not sure how much more he can do. Also have to disagree Slater has been struggling, he isn't scoring many tries these days but his involvement in attack, try assists and passing has been outstanding. Smith is playing like his age and is down somewhat on his form (which is still very good). yes missing Cronk is a huge hole and I to have reservations they can win the comp without a settles halves pairing.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Interesting point Joe,I hope my Doggies give him a call!
Joe
Roar Rookie
What's also interesting in this game is both the teams halves have been mentored by Matty Johns. Was just watching his appearance on NRL 360 talking about halves play and its no wonder the Storm keep going back to him for halfback mentoring. If you include Widdop, Keary and Cronk that's close to half of the halve's in the finals who have been mentored by Matty.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
The great Queenslander Greg Inglis is the wild card for mine. The best runner of a football I've ever seen has been hampered by injuries, it seems, for a long time but he looks a bit like the lean running machine who burst onto the scene a long time ago at the moment. He is the Bradley Clyde of the backs , both were headed for immortality except for injuries it seems. The Storm won't stop Inglis.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Agree with all your points Albo. I don't think the 7-0 record or hoodoos matter much to teams anymore. When they met earlier in the year the Bunnies had a dominant win and the Storm were only missing Vunivalu. Now with Nelson and Chambers out, Vunivalu with a doubtful hammy, Slater with a lot on his mind and GI back in for the bunnies I think it might be even worse. Last time the Bunnies forwards in particular the Burgess bros onslaught in defence pretty much kept the Storm in their own half for almost the entire game. I think the Storm forwards will aim up this week it being Jessies 200th but I think physically they just don't match up without Nelson and Kasiano who isn't even on the bench. Add to that Cook out of dummy half and I'm leaning towards Bunnies.
bbt
Guest
I am not certain of Vunivalu's fitness - and he is a confidence player. We will miss Big Nelson and Chambers, especially Chambers who is an excellent defender. Also, I am not convinced about Hughes at halfback. Not a good communicator, which is essential at halfback. Munster can overplay his hand if the halfback is not taking care of business.
AJ Mithen
Expert
That 13/20 home finals rate for the Storm is really interesting. They'll always give you a look if you're good enough. I was all over the Storm when I started writing my tips for the week but by the end I'd convinced myself the Bunnies will get up. Love finals time, it's the best time of the NRL season by a mile!!
Albo
Roar Rookie
Well there is only one stat that concerns me in predicting a Souths win 13+, and that is the fact they have never won in 7 attempts in Melbourne. But for mine, I just cannot get excited by the Storm this time, despite predicting them going back to back earlier in the season. In their past 5 matches they have lost to Souths, Cronulla & Penrith, had a very lucky win over the Titans & an ordinary win over the wooden spooners . They are missing their one dangerous attacking forward in Asofa-Solomona, and their experienced centre Chambers, have a number of out form players ( Vunivalu, Jesse Bromwich ) and injury queries over others. Smith & Slater are struggling without Cronk, as evidenced by their increased involvements with mistake rates recently, and they still haven't decided who should be the half back ? Unless the referees allow a complete Wrestle-a-thon to favour the Storm, I can see the Bunnies completely steamrolling the Storm pack and GI & Sutton having a field day down the left side like Kikau & Blake did last week. My only concern is that history that says 0-7 in Souths results down there ?