The elimination final losers are always a talking point out of the first week of finals, and this year has been no exception.
We build up all finalists in the lead-up, especially so now with the extended break, and treat them all equally. The gap between eighth and ninth might only be a game or even just percentage, but the gap to first and the top four is always more significant.
Still, every finalist has an enormous focus on them, as we look for reasons to be optimistic about their chances of winning the flag.
Geelong and Sydney are this year’s elimination final losers, and the heat has been on them in the aftermath about exactly where they are at as football teams. There is a lot of symmetry between the two clubs.
The Cats and Swans have been two of the finals stalwarts this decade, if not this century. They are the perennial contenders.
Chris Scott won the 2011 premiership in his first season as coach of Geelong, John Longmire won the 2012 flag in his second year at the helm of Sydney. Both coaches started at the same time, at the end of 2010, taking over clubs that had only missed the finals once each since 2004.
Both teams have finished in the top four, four times since winning their last premiership, but failed to add another flag from these lofty positions. The Swans have at least made two grand finals, but the Cats have failed to progress beyond preliminary finals.
Both clubs have added in players in the conversation for the best player in the game at the time.
Lance Franklin came to Sydney for 2014 after they had finished in the top four on the ladder in 2013, and propelled them to two grand finals in the next three years. The advent of free agency meant that the Swans didn’t have to give anything up for the former Hawk superstar.
Patrick Dangerfield was added to Geelong’s list for 2016 after they had finished 10th in 2015 (but top four in 2013-14), and immediately had an impact. He won the Brownlow medal in 2016, finished second in 2017, and sent the Cats straight back up to the pointy end of the ladder, finishing second each time.
Where is Patrick Dangerfield most valuable for the Cats? (Photo: James Elsby/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Buddy has played 10 finals for Sydney, averaging 16 touches and 3.6 goals per game in wins, but only 14 disposals and one goal per game in losses. In fact, he has kicked just one goal in the Swans last four losing finals, and they have averaged 48 points per game in those.
In the five finals he played in 2016-17 for Geelong, Dangerfield averaged 31 disposals, 17 contested possessions, five clearances, five tackles and the thick part of two goals a game. There’s only so much one man can do.
Both Geelong and Sydney appear to be in a bit of a middle of the ladder no man’s land, with imbalances in their list that will not easily be overcome.
Yes, the Cats finished second last year, but they lost their two finals by 51 and 61 points against fellow top four sides. They were proven to be a long way off the pace when it counted, and their fall down the ladder this year has added more evidence to this.
They only lost to Melbourne by 29 points on Friday night, but it felt more than that watching live with 16 scoring shots to 25, and being held to only six goals.
The Swans have finished top six the last two seasons, but lost their finals by 59 and 49 points, scoring less than 40 points each time. They too have fallen a long way short when the heat has been on.
Sydney have Franklin, Josh Kennedy, Jarrad McVeigh, Heath Grundy, Nick Smith and Kieren Jack on the wrong side of 30 already, and Dan Hannebery who is playing like it. They have a host of likely youngsters that will likely not mature in time while these veterans are still capable.
Lance Franklin of the Swans (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Geelong has the top end of talent like Dangerfield, Joel Selwood (albeit what appears to be quite a severe decline), an aging Gary Ablett, Tom Hawkins, Mitch Duncan, with the likes of Tom Stewart and Tim Kelly pressing into that group despite being young in their careers as mature age players. But they do not presently have the depth to complement them.
Longmire and Scott are two defence first coaches that do not play the forward pressure game that is currently successful.
Sydney have long absorbed big inside 50 numbers against them, and then played slingshot football out of the back half. It won them the 2012 premiership, but does not stand up in the current game come finals time, against the better sides.
Geelong play slow, conservative, controlled football, in a time when the competition benchmark plays a forward momentum and kinetic brand.
The Swans and Cats have failed once again, despite being in apparent contention, and something needs to change for each club if they are to land another flag with the current nucleus as players.
Game style is probably the first port of call. Maximising their assets is another. And ensuring there is more balance in their list than we’re currently seeing is another piece of the puzzle.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Darcy will bring his hamstring concerns with him.
Sydneygirl
Guest
Don’t think it is as dire as made out for Sydney. Young forwards will be better after another year and we don’t need Moore. Have had enough injury prone players. Don’t need to add him to that
Raimond
Roar Guru
Both of these teams' midfields are totally cooked. Both need a cleanout, and a new coach.
Julian
Roar Rookie
It's amazing how much better players get when they never play. Naismith is hardly a world beater. Sure rucks are important for structure, but he's not Gawn/Grundy/Naitanui. He's more of a Nankervis, but Sydney is not Richmond. Reid is hugely important for structure, but he's perennially injured. Mills is still a kid and Sydney's list problem is the dearth of players inbetween the young guns and the aging guns. Much like Geelong. It's going to be much harder rebuilding on the run without COLA and even with the academy. Despite my huge respect for both Sydney and Geelong, it will be refreshing seeing both clubs follow the natural cycle snd dropping down the ladder.
anon
Roar Pro
Harsh to blame Franklin for these early exits. Played injured in the 2016 Grand Final, was far from 100% on Saturday. Averaged 3 goals per game this year in a team that's 4th worst in the league for inside 50's. The Swans midfield was Fremantle and Gold Coast like. Franklin is the reason why they made the finals. Simple as that.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Great article Cam. At least these two clubs supporters can take solace in making the finals. Its shattering for them to exit this way, but at least they got plenty of joy out of the season along the journey. The Swans for me have the better crop of young talent, headlined by Heeney and Mills, but it is a worrying group of over 30's you've listed.
RT
Roar Rookie
I can't remember Selwood standing out against Richmond so checked the match report and sure enough he is only listed as Geelong's third best. Against Melbourne their second best. He is definitely on the decline from his best, much like the Cats in general, but "servere decline" might be a bit harsh.
Gecko
Roar Pro
Kelly, Duncan and Ablett are more outside than inside, and many of their forwards are also a bit too outside. Geelong would definitely benefit from recruiting a Dalhaus-type for their midfield and demanding more pressure from forwards like Narkle, Menzel and Ratugolea.
DB
Guest
Selwood on a severe decline? Do you even watch the Cats? He was Geelongs best on Friday night and was best on ground (both teams) when they faced your mob Richmond a few weeks before that. I am actually shocked by his resilience considering how he plays the game.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I personally think Geelong and Sydney have done really well this decade. At least they’re playing finals each year. This obsession with branding the other teams who don’t win a flag each year flat failures is a cancer in football journalism. 18 teams, one premiership. It’s like people don’t understand the math
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
Cats had the mother of all shockers so much so it looked like a real time blooper show. Hopefully thats the bottom of their "Gexits". Can you be that bad and still not be that far off it? Can you be a genuine contender and just go to pieces? Lets just say no one thought they had the cats covered from what I heard. Emotions just got the better of them.
Neil from Warrandyte
Roar Rookie
If Kelly doesn’t want to be there next year, you have to make the most of a bad situation.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
So...Geelong needs top young midfielders and your solution is to trade out a contracted Kelly, one of the best top young midfielders around?
Christo the Daddyo
Roar Rookie
Remember the defence has Mills and Smith to come back into it, so (next year at least) it's not the backline that is the problem. But they do need to start planning for life post Grundy and McVeigh, so I expect the defence to mix it up a bit as part of this transition.
JamesT
Roar Rookie
The Geelong Midfield was exposed - Ablett, Selwood, and Dangerfield well and truly past it, if they cannot get over a young Melbourne midfield in 2018, they are certainly not getting better in 2019. Time for Geelong to make some tough calls and maybe use the Kelly Trade to West Coast to try and snair Gaff if they can offload Ablett to free up Salary. Sydney where do you start a good Home and Away team - but once the finals start a game plan which is continually exposed and fails 2017, and 2018 examples. By resigning McVee and Grundy the Swans won't rock the status quo expect them to make finals in 2019 but not beyond first 2 rounds.
User
Roar Rookie
Ronke could be developed into a mid if they work on his endurance over pre season. If Lloyd leaves I'd imagine Jones would stay in defence. Another pre season into Olly Florent and getting a fwd pocket in the draft would be handy, considering the likes of Zac Langdon and Willie rioli where late picks I'm sure Swans recruiting department have a keen eye on someone.
Christo the Daddyo
Roar Rookie
Agree completely. All teams suffer injuries throughout a season, but the Swans' premiership chances were killed off once they lost Tippett to retirement just before the season started and then lost Reid and Naismith to (essentially) season ending injuries. Totally unbalanced the team and they never really recovered. In fact it's testament to the rest of the team that they managed to do as well as they did under the circumstances. I also wonder whether Jones and Ronke might be trialed in the midfield next year?
User
Roar Rookie
Don't think things are that grim for the Swans, add reid, Naismith and mills next year, let hannebery go in a trade and retire jack, get Darcy Moore and release Sinclair back to the fwd line and already it looks alot better. Time to lock Heeney in as a permanent mid as well but his time spent in defence was definitely caused by mills injury. Geelong are harder to get a read on, fwd line and ruck needs alot of work, backline is coming together but time for Taylor to hang up the boots, definitely need to get back into the draft so may take some big trades(Kelly or Duncan gets them a good pick). Understand it's difficult for the cats as they need to be competitive to remain financially viable thus creating a dilemma as they can't afford to drop away for any significant period.