After bleeding runs throughout this World Cup leg spinner Adam Zampa is too risky a selection for tomorrow’s blockbuster clash against the batting brutes of England.
Not only has Zampa taken 1-118 at nearly eight runs per over in his past two matches, but he has a horrendous career record against England, averaging 133 with the ball from five ODIs.
Opposed to the most dangerous batting lineup in ODI cricket, Australia must find a way to stem the runs when star quicks Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins are out of the attack.
While Starc and Cummins have combined for 26 wickets at 22 in this tournament, at an economy rate of 5.1 runs per over, the rest of Australia’s bowlers have taken 22 wickets at 48, with an economy rate of 6.4 runs per over.
Australia are getting minimal penetration from their support bowlers. So they might as well aim for economy in the form of Nathan Lyon, who has conceded just 4.86 runs per over in his ODI career.
When Australia’s attack was functioning well as a collective, across the recent series in India and Pakistan, then it made sense to pick their most attacking spinner. That man is Adam Zampa.
But now that they’re struggling to control the game once Starc and Cummins go off it makes more sense to pick a defensive spinner, one who can hold up an end.
Zampa appears to have lost his mojo, averaging 47 with the ball in this tournament and going at a sky-high 7.15 runs per over. The leg spinner’s confidence levels can be traced across the four major peaks and troughs in his ODI career.
When he broke on to the international scene in 2016 the most impressive thing about Zampa was his composure. Many wrist spinners retreat when attacked and become far less threatening as a result. Whereas in Zampa’s debut year he just kept tossing the ball up.
The South Australian was the leading ODI wicket taker worldwide that year with 30 wickets at 27. Then across 2017 and 2018 the Australian hierarchy lost faith in Zampa, he was shunted in and out of the team, and when he did appear he was not the same unflappable spinner. He was bowling flatter and using his googly more sparingly.
His returns suffered badly as he averaged 60 in ODIs across those two calendar years.
When Zampa returned to the Australian team this year his swagger was back and he was trusting his variations once more.
As a result he played a key role in Australia winning back-to-back ODI series in India and the UAE, grabbing 18 wickets from 10 matches.
The confidence and daring Zampa displayed in those series has been absent in this World Cup. He has bowled not to be hit, with the opposite effect. Fielding an out-of-form Zampa against his bogey side England would be folly.
Lyon, at least, was able to restrict the English batsmen in the two ODIs he played against them in the UK last year. In those matches the off-spinner was extremely frugal, going at just 4.1 runs per over against a full-strength England lineup.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
To underscore how well Lyon choked the runs, consider that the next most economical bowler from either team in those two matches was Aussie spinner Ashton Agar at 4.6 runs per over.
The two English spinners – Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali – went at 5.8 and 5.7 runs per over, respectively, in those same games.
Yes it’s a small sample size. But it is not irrelevant. Lyon came up against a loaded England batting lineup in their home conditions and was able to keep them quiet.
It is also notable that Lyon did the same thing against England in Australia’s warm-up match four weeks ago, taking 1-37 from 10 overs.
Meanwhile, nine of the top 12 most economical spinners in this World Cup have been finger spinners. The wrist spinners in that group just happen to be the three best in ODI cricket in Kuldeep Yadav, Imran Tahir and Yuzvendra Chahal.
That trio are so gifted they can remain effective on any surface. In this World Cup so far finger spinners mostly have been tidy while only the elite wrist spinners have avoided being thumped.
That situation, combined with Zampa’s poor recent form and Lyon’s fine efforts against England, should make this a straightforward selection.
VivGilchrist
Roar Rookie
I’m glad
Charlie
Roar Rookie
You were very, very wrong
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
"Restricting scoring is both a defensive and attacking weapon." I think that is especially true against England due to the fact they like to be scoring quickly at all times.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
But as pointed out in the article, that hasn't been the case to this point. He was quite economical in the 5-match series against England played last year, and again did really well in the warm-up win against them just before the WC. It might still happen, any bowler can have an off day and get carted, even McGrath did from time to time, but his recent record against England in England suggests that they haven't been successful in getting after him.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Further amplified if BAN win tonight v AFG (and ENG lose to AUS). I then don't even want to think of the pressure-cooker situation ENG will find themselves facing in the lead-up to their IND game on Sunday especially if PAK/SL can pull off some winnable games. No, actually I do want to think about, daily and with vigour.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Zampa isn't really taking wickets either, though. If he was, we wouldn't be having this conversation!
JD St George
Roar Pro
You say that Ravi and Nathan are great fingerspinners and I agree but in tests. In ODIs and List a Ravi averages 30 + and Lyon averages 35 in list A and 45 in ODIs.
matth
Roar Guru
A left arm ‘offspinner “ is left arm orthodox, or as I was called in my playing days, left arm ordinary.
Paul
Roar Guru
Much depends on the state of the game for sure, Jeff. If England are one down for not many, I'd bring him on to try and maintain the pressure. If they're one down for say 50, I might leave him for a little and see whether the quicks can winkle out another wicket. If so, bring him on asap. I wouldn't be too concerned about the square boundaries. Lyon was very good in that last 5 game series the Aussies played in England at not giving away cheap runs and if anything, he's probably got better at not bowling too many "hit me's". I just don't think he'll take a bag. If he get's one or two wickets, happy days.
Jezza31
Roar Rookie
You mean South Africa not India. Always a bogey game.
Steele
Guest
I’d give him a go, it’s a better alternative to our other number three bowlers in the squad. I’d be looking outside of the squad though. One of Hazle/Patto should be brought in immediately. Just make up a fake injury. Done.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Unfortunately in this tournament in his 4 games Zampa has only taken 5 wkts @ 47 and an ER of 7.1. The Lyon selection for this game is less about taking wickets and more about building pressure . At an ER of over 7, Zampa doesn't even feature in the top 60 bowlers used at this WC..
VivGilchrist
Roar Rookie
Lyon will get carted. He is predictable and the Poms will go after him. I hope I’m wrong.
Harry Selassie
Roar Rookie
I agree with you Australia should bat first. The pressure is building up for England, as you have all said give them a target of 300+ and that pressure will be even greater. The 2017 ICC Trophy and their past failures will weigh heavily on them. But give England some confidence and they can blow anyone away.
KenoathCarnt
Roar Rookie
How Lyon has not been given a go yet seriously baffles me Zampa has been absolutely useless. Lyon will keep it tight take at least 1 useful wicket and embrace pressure put on him from good batting knowing it brings him into the game more.
Parkside Darren
Roar Rookie
Agree on this call Ronan. Restricting scoring is both a defensive and attacking weapon. As you’ve commented Lyon is good enough, and experienced, to come in and perform no matter the situation. He is also an exceptional fielder. I think he plays and stays in the team from here.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
My only concern would be if ENG is 0 or 1 down after 10, it does open him up to being taken on by the right handers square of the wicket with short boundaries (and they may go aggressive with wickets in hand). Of course ENG aggression could open up some wicket opps for Lyon, but could also go horribly wrong. Still, he's in there to keep things fairly tight so if he can get it right, could really help AUS dictate the tempo.
jeznez
Roar Guru
You speak a lot of sense Ronan, thanks for the article.
Paul
Roar Guru
I'd have him on no later than over 10 Jeff and let him bowl through, if he's doing a job for the team and have NCN, Stoinis and Maxwell bowl with him. There might even be a knock on effect, where his steadiness helps their bowling as well.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
Esp as they'll be under pressure, try to force the rate and, then, pay the price. My only concern would be if he starts to bowl off/middle. He needs to keep it outside. As Grimmet, Benaud & Mallet would intimate, "the corridor of uncertainty".