It might not be the best match-up of the round, but Cats-Magpies is certainly the biggest.
It’s got almost everything you want from a final: the MCG, prime time, a huge crowd, and two quality teams with realistic premiership aspirations.
There’s also just enough doubt over both of these sides to make the consequences of a loss a little more serious than your average qualifying final – and the reigning premiers await them.
It’s been a while since a minor premier was held in such low regard as these Cats.
Sure, they went 5-5 in their last ten games – although they were also 5-4 in their last nine if you want that to be your narrative – but they still finished on top of the ladder with 16 wins and a percentage of 135.7.
Narrow the sample size to just the final three rounds and beltings of the Roos and Blues sandwich a one-point loss at the Gabba to the team that finished second on the ladder. Perhaps their form isn’t as bad as it’s being made out to be.
We’ll have a better idea of whether they’re contenders or pretenders tonight, because there’s nowhere for them to hide.
(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Collingwood’s form has been slightly more encouraging after a form slump that stretched about six weeks after their bye. It must be said, however, that their past four matches – all wins – came against the Suns, Demons, Crows and Bombers, which isn’t exactly a murderers’ row.
But, hey, wins are wins, and here they are in a qualifying final and bolstered by some crucial returns.
They don’t get much more crucial than superstar forward Jordan de Goey, who returns along with forward partner in crime Jaidyn Stephenson, whose betting suspension is ever-so-conveniently over, and the smooth Steele Sidebottom – the less said about his absence the better.
Matthew Scharenberg, Travis Varcoe and Jack Madgen have all been dropped.
For the Cats, Jake Kolodjashnij and Tom Atkins return for the injured Cam Guthrie and Lachie Henderson, who has been axed.
These are the two stingiest teams in the competition, so don’t expect a shoot-out tonight.
The Cats gave up a measly 66.5 points a game on average this season, while the Magpies gave up a touch over a goal more than that at 72.7 points.
The highest score by a team in the past three match-ups between these sides is 72, and with the stakes high and the weather predicted to be lousy, it’s fair to expect another dour affair.
Colingwood (49.2) and Geelong (49.4) are among six teams to concede, on average, fewer than 50 inside-50s a game, and the bad news for the Pies is that the Cats also concede a goal on just 18.7 per cent of opponents’ entries, which is the lowest rate in the league. The Magpies are eighth at 21.2 per cent.
It’ll be fascinating to see who the Cats send to De Goey. He’s a nightmare match-up who plays above his height without losing anything on the ground. Jack Henry might be the man – whoever it is will need help.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
If anyone can test the Cats, it’s this Magpies forward line, which looks incredibly dynamic with De Goey and Stephenson joining Jamie Elliott, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Brody Mihocek and Josh Thomas. Sidebottom has been named in the front six as well. It’s stacked with class.
The Cats are no scrubs at the other end, of course. Tom Hawkins just earned his second All Australian selection, and Gary Ablett wasn’t far off his ninth. Luke Dahlhaus and Gryan Miers will make sure Collingwood’s defenders feel their presence.
Gary Rohan has gone cold after a hot start to the season. He’d be desperate for a good game or might just find himself out of the side in the Cats’ next match, whenever that is.
As is so often the case, it’s in the middle where things get particularly tasty. With so much star power, you’d think these sides would be dominant at the stoppages, but Collingwood are 11th and Geelong 12th for clearance differential, with both teams near enough even with their opponents across the season.
They are, however, both exceptional contested possession teams. The Cats are No.1 in the league with a +10.5 average differential and the Magpies are third at +8.4.
Patrick Dangerfield, Tim Kelly, Mitch Duncan and Joel Selwood on one side. Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar, Taylor Adams and Sidebottom on the other.
The Cats probably have a slight edge there, until you consider the man who is perhaps their biggest problem: Brodie Grundy.
Rhys Stanley was outstanding against Grundy when these sides last met back in Round 1. But as Stanley is wont to do, he has failed to maintain that level throughout the season.
Geelong need him tonight to at least drag Grundy down from his best.
Tonight shapes as a brilliant match-up, and that’s most welcome after last night’s lopsided affair.
It’s damn tough to split them, but I think the Cats will get the job done and silence some of the doubters.
Geelong by four points.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Nope
Ritsue
Guest
So true
Larrikin
Roar Rookie
West Coast will demoralise Geelong next week, they are pathetic
Yawn of the Dead
Guest
have reconsidered the formguide. Each of the Cats' losses coming in was to a decent team away, or a Melb team playing for finals. their best is better than the Pies Cats by 32
Geelong Tiger
Roar Rookie
I honestly can't pick it either. Head says Geelong, but gut says Collingwood. Looking forward to it, should be an interesting game for us neutrals. Pies by 5.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Good luck to your boys. Not long now.
Dr GoesBang
Roar Rookie
A lot of us are looking at the sevond half of the season with black and white coloured glasses. As a Lions supporter who was at the game where Geelong played us at the Gabba i can tell you all, Geelong eere phenomenal in the 28C heat were and very unlucky to lose. Collingwood on the other hand have not beaten anyone noteworthy and most recently struggled against an undermanned Bombers outfit at the G. In my opinion they also have one of the worse set shot goal kicking forward lines in the league. Pies will be lucky to get within 25 points at the final blow horn. Reality check from a tanking Cats outfit ready to send a message to the rest of us. Happy 300 games Pendelbury. Geelong by 36 EASY!
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Hard for Anon who hates both sides
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Good work Doctor Dis
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Someone had to go out of a star studded forward line
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Geelong's game to lose. Will Chris Scott be daring enough to let his players play the game or will he merely seek to 'stop' Collingwood? Okay to defend but you have to pull the trigger sometimes!
ChrisH
Roar Rookie
If there was no bye, I’d have no probs tipping the Cats. I think they’ve been priming themselves for the finals. But is that priming going to work with the bye? And, with the weather sure to make it a low scoring, inaccurate affair, it is guaranteed to be close, so luck might come into it a bit more. Impossible to tip… but if had to pick, then Geelong, coz I think they’re post-bye form has been bluffing us all and they are the best defensive side in the comp, and that’s what you need in finals.
Gavan Iacono
Roar Rookie
My teams not playing so why am I so nervous? I reckon Pies will get job done if their ins are all in good to very good form. The talk of them being underdone seems rational from a pov, but on the otherside, maybe Bucks knows more, actually, he certainly does, and win or lose the ins will be even better the next game. If Cats win I reckon I will need to reassess them.
Gary
Roar Rookie
"Grundy best on ground, the ‘Gambler’ kicks 5, Pies by 32 points"... is this your prediction or Stephenson's multi for tonight? :laughing:
shifty
Roar Rookie
Will Geelong get to play a home final if they lose tonight and have to player the intruder's from the West?
anon
Roar Pro
Geelong will be nervous about wasting yet another top 4 opportunity.
Chris
Guest
This is an Elimination Final rather than a Qualifying Final. I feel that the loser will find it very hard to stay in the finals race after next week's fixtures. Neither combatant will be too eager to face the WCE, even at the "G",next weekend. That makes this game ever more compelling and a must-win for both sides. I love my endearing Maggies to bits but I sense that the other mob might have the "wood" on us. Pardon the pun...
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
I've been looking forward to this matchup for some time now. Scott probably has the most amount of pressure bestowed upon him of all involved tonight. I admire the man and consider him one of the best coaches of the modern era. Tonight, and for the remainder of this finals series, this testament will either hold true or be put to the sword. There will be no in-between. This year has been all about width for the Cats at the 'G. Scott knows all too well that width will make or break his chances when it counts. Thompson's game plan of run-and-gun up the centre mass of the 'G was perfect footy — it took width out of the equation while having a pure back-six to defend the turnover. However, this is not how Scott likes to play. He's a defence first coach, emphasising mitigation and possession over reckless abandonment. It's taken him nearly ten years to design a winning formula. Now we'll see if it works against a similar style team, equally as seasoned and hungry to win the Holy Grail of Australian sport. It's simple for me. The Cats have been brilliant on the 'G this year. They had a slip against Hawthorn (those games are always a flip of the coin), but otherwise, their defensive spread has been spot on. The switch to the fat side will be critical against Collingwood, along with intermittent centre corridor spot-kicks — something they sorely lacked against the Lions. Geelong possesses the best defence in the league by a distant margin. It's not a pure back-six like Thompson's either; it's a Motley Crue of individuals forged under the guidance of two of the greatest defenders in AFL history in Corey Boris Enright and the great Matty Scarlett. One thing is for sure: Geelong will not go gentle into the good night like in previous first quarters. The Cats are the Roman Legion of this Finals Series. They're drilled hard, organised and will be very hard to defeat. They'll make life difficult for Collingwood's X-Factor players by not defeating them, but constricting their brilliance as a collective. They'll use width to defeat Collingwood's defence with tempo football off their halfback flanks, while using the likes of Ablett and Kelly, further afield, to deliver precision passing into their forward 50. Couple this with an intermittent ballistic offence in 5-minute patches, and we may well see the perfect balance of attack and defence. Of course, the Cats are up against a formidable foe, along with the Pies Army — this is going to be a cracking match. Cats by 15 points. GO CATS!
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Toss the coin..... Pies as the HOME TEAM. :silly:
Brian
Guest
Pies by 4 goals. Cats whinging about the MCG was a bad move.