West Coast humiliated Collingwood in their Sunday clash.
In a post-game interview, Pies defender Jack Crisp claimed the performance was an “outlier”, but likelier it’s a symptom.
Collingwood were always going to struggle without Scott Pendlebury (a late withdrawal), Steele Sidebottom, Jeremy Howe and Jordan de Goey – four of their top six players.
But those absences also exposed a greater vulnerability that is testament to one simple reality: Collingwood have not improved on that 2018 grand final team that came within a kick of winning the flag.
The run to the 2018 grand final
Collingwood suffered numerous injuries throughout 2018, but this forced selection policies that might usually be considered conservative to become far more lateral.
Collingwood added Brody Mihocek and Mason Cox to a mid-sized and unpredictable forward line. Brayden Sier was pushed into the midfield. The side played with flare and audacity.
And now?
The mid-sized forward line
In 2018, every week, somebody would bob up with a mini-bag. The forward line was unpredictable and difficult to match-up on. But that was also a result of the forwards’ composition.
Mason Cox played 11 games in 2016, nine in 2017, and then became a mainstay in 2018 with 24 games. Brody Mihocek debuted and played 16 games, kicking 29 goals. Jaidyn Stephenson debuted in 2018, played all 26 games and kicked 38 goals.
Now throw in Jordan de Goey, who had an explosive and breakout year, kicking 48 goals from 21 games – a substantial improvement on 14 goals from 14 games in 2017, and 16 goals from 20 games in 2016.
(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
So part of the unpredictability came from half the forward six being largely unknown quantities.
Cox is too easily blocked or out-bodied now, Mihocek struggles as the number one target, and while De Goey is unstoppable on his day (as he proved against Geelong), he had soft tissue problems in 2018, and off-field issues in 2019.
To maintain that 2018 potency, those players have to provide a similar input, or Collingwood have to find alternatives who’ll provide a similar output.
Neither has happened.
Nor does it look like it’s going to happen given the current shape of their list and the mentality behind their structure.
The engine room
Brayden Sier debuted in 2018 and played 12 games, averaging 19 possessions. While statistically that might be a modest return, he was a vital component, winning the ball at the coal face and constructively feeding it out, allowing teammates such as Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar and Steele Sidebottom to use their unique skills to construct offences.
Sier struggled in 2019 and played only six games. This year he’s played zero.
Rupert Wills has valiantly tried to fill that vacuum, but with mixed results. Dayne Beams was recruited in 2019 to build on the midfield, but that hasn’t worked out.
Collingwood have added the likes of Callum Brown, Josh Daicos, Tyler Brown and Jamie Elliott, but with sporadic returns. None have helped the midfield click with the same synergy Sier generated over a prolonged period.
Collingwood’s midfield has deteriorated in comparison to their 2018 best.
The Grundy factor
Brodie Grundy is another who had a breakout 2018, stamping himself on the game as an elite ruckman.
Collingwood’s issue in converting his statistical dominance into midfield dominance has been well documented.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/AFL Media/Getty Images)
What’s happened more than Collingwood might care to admit is that opposition are reaping his tap work.
Another issue that’s emerged this year is that opponents are scragging him and sucking him into wrestling, negating him physically.
It reminds me of the way West Coast legend Glen Jakovich would play North Melbourne superstar Wayne Carey. Carey was an elite mover, but for some reason always got sucked into tests of strength with Jakovich, which Jakovich won time and time again.
Grundy needs to adapt to how opponents are playing him. He is the hunted now – and is letting himself be hunted. He has to work smarter, not harder.
As a whole, Collingwood are failing to monopolise Grundy’s talent and ability.
Moving the ball
In 2018, Collingwood averaged 217 kicks, 181 handballs, 92 marks and 68 tackles per game.
In 2019, they averaged 230 kicks, 171 handballs, 104 marks and 62 tackles per game.
They’re minor shifts, but Australian rules is a game of margins. Collingwood’s margins have shifted, which showcases a change in their mentality. Whereas in 2018 they played with audacity and ran the ball, in 2019 they tried to kick their way through traffic.
This year, we’ve often seen them start with a freewheeling game, and then be grounded into indecisiveness and errors.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Either opposition have worked out that blocking Collingwood’s run blunts their offensiveness, or Collingwood have lost their initiative – or perhaps it’s a combination of both.
Over 2019 and 2020 they have rarely looked as consistently attacking and audacious over the course of a game as they did through 2018.
So where’s the improvement?
Five points. That was the margin by which Collingwood lost the 2018 grand final.
Most people might think close enough is just about good enough, and with some luck, natural evolution and players such as Jamie Elliott and Darcy Moore returning, they would find a way to build on that side.
But it hasn’t worked out that way.
Players such as Stephenson and De Goey haven’t built on 2018. Sidebottom, Treloar and Adams are offering about the same output. Players such as Will Hoskin-Elliott, Josh Thomas, Tom Phillips and Travis Varcoe are offering less.
Young players such as Daicos, the two Browns and Isaac Quaynor are spasmodically good, but aren’t consistently offering high enough returns to be influential in a meaningful way – definitely not the way De Goey, Stephenson and Sier impacted the side in 2018.
Darcy Moore is the one genuine asset they’ve added to the 2018 grand final side. But for as good as he’s been, how much can he offer as a key defender when so much else is misfiring? And the best defenders are all for naught when midfield pressure is lacking and the ball is being pinged in with abandon.
I’ve been surprised by the hype surrounding Collingwood this year – and last year.
If you compare them to their 2018 grand final side, the cons outweigh the pros.
Collingwood are a good side when they can get it right.
But now, that just doesn’t happen often enough.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Come on Sachit, the Bombers can’t even remember where they put the spreadsheet!
George Apps
Roar Rookie
I don't really think it's got anything to do with injuries, all clubs have many injuries in a season. I think it boils down to on-field team leadership. On Sunday, even during the first quarter, I felt a lack of direction and instinctive team-work even from the first goal. They seemed "all at sea".
George Apps
Roar Rookie
"Are" many clubs who have the injuries ---
RT
Roar Rookie
It's a fair point, but during those injury plagued weeks in 2019, Richmond had a structure and game plan that would stand up in finals. With all the talk of Collingwood's miserly defence this year, their attack has been miserly too. It was only a matter of time before they were shown up. My biggest regret of the weekend was not watching for myself. They need more than just getting their players back, they need to change things up. They have time to work it out still.
Peter Chrisp
Guest
Being a Pies fan for ages I could not agree more. To me it’s a no wholes barred review of what we are going through. It does show too when our performances are at times are so ordinary especially after the first quarter. As what “Whitesnake” would suggest in their classic song “Here I Go Again”. The result was not surprising. Are we relying on too many passengers? Our forward line can be good at times & quite atrocious.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Essendon are still winning games despite their rather debilitating injury list, they made the finals last year with a similar conundrum
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
I think the problem collingwood has is a less severe version of melbournes problems. Melbourne put their big money developing their back line but this game is now built on forward half pressure and turn overs. Collingwood are a bit similar, where they’re so reliant on a miserly defence it comes at the cost of their attack. They don’t have a key forward with which the smaller players they have in that line can get around. I also think the beams trade was silly list management from Ned guy and it’s petered out that way.
Sachit Dassanayake
Roar Rookie
No one remembers 2nd place except for the person who finished 2nd and their followers.
Flagpies
Roar Rookie
I think the game plan is flawed, rip teams apart early and then grimly defend for 3 qtrs by suffocating the contest and then attempt to control it when they have the ball. Why not just continue your 1st qtr plan and bury your opposition? Why change it? Why have they started liked world beaters and then drop off the cliff for the last 3 qtrs? Every game this season and most of last? My theory is that world beating plan can't be sustained for the game. It also suggests that the system hides the flaws in the list profile - until teams like wc use transition speed to take away that strangulation after slicing up wc with time and space early. This is not a flag winning model, and my thought is that we can't sustain the unbeatable because it's too taxing or a good oppo will figure out how to beat it - take away the pressure with your own transition. Think the window is shut to be honest, time for a regen, there's a good core group to build a flag with.
Kane
Roar Rookie
The question has to be asked tho, is it bad luck or bad management?
Kane
Roar Rookie
It's the same injury story year after year tho. There is obviously something wrong with either their players, facilities or fitness team which Eddie said once "is the best money can buy". Collingwood supporters should be furious and demand answers to why these injuries happen every year. I know I would be pissed off if it kept happening at my club every year especially if the club was in the premiership window like Collingwood have been.
ChrisH
Roar Rookie
It seems to me that Collingwood is cursed these last three years. They seem to have had more and consistent bad luck with injuries than any other club in the finals contention each year. Add to that a run of off-field issues that have also upset the apple cart each year. Given all that, going as far as they did in 2018 and 2019 and being up again this year is remarkable. Buckley has shown himself to be a top-shelf coach to consistently get his team up despite all those hurdles. However... one year year you can blame bad luck... but when it happens three years in a row you gotta ask questions. But their biggest issue may just be their lack of a reliable key forward. 2017, '18 and '19 flag winners all had reliable key forwards - Riewoldt; Kennedy and Darling; and Riewoldt and Lynch. In fact, if Pies snared Lynch instead of Tigers, I'm sure they would be 2019 premiers.
Nico
Roar Rookie
I think like Richmond last year, they’ll get their stars back at the pointy end season when it really matters. And they’ll be nice and rested too, while the rest are fatigued. Not a bad position to be in. Just need to get there, and to me they seem certain to. (Unless things go horribly wrong the next few weeks).
DingoGray
Roar Guru
I'm not sure there is many clubs out there who have the injury list Collingwood have, would still be in the mix to play finals. It does seem now though the shear size of the injury list has become to much. The fact they have very little already in the forward 50, and then you gun forward goes down. Well it doesn't look great for them. I'd be interested if Buckley can make adjustments.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
They do Grand Final loses more than anyone in the history of the game. It's ingrained.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Les wrote the following in late July, 2017 too in the gloomy portrait of the Pies future below. “ Collingwood is just a club in pieces. They used to fit, and contributed to a greater whole. But now they’re just a scattered mess on the floor of the competition.” 14 months later they were 2 minutes shy of a flag, better than 16 other sides including yours Paul, who were woeful for 15 Years after your last GF. Les Zig, July 24, 2017 https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/07/25/ten-steps-taken-collingwood-path-hell/ As for me, I wrote the below Positive and predictive piece in November 2017. I know who’s opinion matters to me. Mine. I was scarily right and Les and most others were spectacularly wrong. Peter the Scribe, November 30, 2017 https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/12/01/debunking-myths-around-nathan-buckley-pies-actually-headed/
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Yet the acceptance of the glass being half full is indeed half the problem at Collingwood which I assume Les is alluding to. What have the Pies done to 'fill the glass'? Nothing different, same old same old. Hanging your hat on a GF loss is so Collingwood.
Paul D
Roar Rookie
Talking about Collingwood being within 2 minutes of a flag in 2018 is like being proud the Titanic made it to within 2 days of New York
GGG
Roar Rookie
:laughing: :laughing: :laughing:
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I’m overwhelmed by my little groupies like you Paul hanging on my every word. Les wrote a very similar piece in early 2018, you know, when we were 2 minutes off a flag so I read these as typically glass half empty.