The trashy tabloid journalists are frothing at the mouth, Peter V’landys is talking about unnecessary rule changes, and all fans are full of optimism and hope.
It can only mean one thing… no, not that the NRL season is about to begin; rather, that it’s time for my annual fearless predictions for the season!
O’Connell: My five fearless predictions for the 2020 NRL season
There’s a slight sense of deja vu with this year’s predictions, because I actually feel like a lot of the things that happened in last year’s season might, bizarrely, happen again. So get used to seeing that word ‘again’, again.
It’s also worth noting that over the last three seasons, I’m sitting on a strike rate of 68 per cent* for my predictions, so feel free to sell one of your kids – or kidneys – in order to have a punt on the following…
(*Quick PSA: my maths is a little, shall we say, generous? So take that 68 per cent claim with a massive grain of salt and remember the most responsible form of gambling, is no gambling at all.)
And away we go!
1. Penrith win the minor premiership, make the grand final, and… lose again
The Panthers are deep, talented and well coached. They’ll be the team to beat once again during the season, and will qualify for their second straight grand final.
Where, sadly for the men and women at the foot of the Blue Mountains, they will lose once again.
I’m just not confident in their halves when the pressure is cranked all the way up to 10, which it certainly is in a ‘granny’.
Panthers fans can defend their team all they want, but whether the narrative around the likes of Nathan Cleary is fair or not is completely irrelevant.
The fact is that the narrative does exist. So until they can silence the doubters and prove them wrong, the question marks will remain.
2. Jack Wighton goes back-to-back and wins the Dally M Medal… again
I was quite bemused by all the noise last year that Wighton’s win was somehow ‘shocking’ and should result in an overhaul to the Dally M voting process.
Nathan Cleary was the deserved favourite, but he wasn’t that much better than Wighton that it was a boilover. Wighton had a great season too.
In fact, I expect him to have an even better season this year, and join Johnathan Thurston and Andrew Johns as the only back-to-back winners of the medal in the NRL era.
Jack Wighton of the Raiders (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
3. Queensland win State of Origin… again
I really didn’t like what I saw from New South Wales in last year’s Origin series. Every cliché about Queensland having a better grasp on what Origin football is all about seemed to ring true, as the Blues were complacent, out-hustled, and lacked the killer instinct required to win the series.
Perhaps the biggest issue is that the Blues have more talent that the Maroons, but it’s not balanced across a starting 13. This is highlighted by the fact they squeezed players into the centres who aren’t centres, weren’t sure who their best five-eighth was, and seemed to want to pick 28 fullbacks in their squad.
Queensland will take a lot out of last year’s win, and they’re also likely to have more talent to call on, with injuries and end-of-season fatigue not impacting their selections this time around.
4. The Bulldogs miss out on the finals… again… but in the last round of the season
As a Dogs fan, I usually tend to avoid making any predictions about my team, either through fear of being labelled bias, or because I’d be shooting myself in the foot. But these are meant to be fearless predictions, so it’s time to be fearless!
The Dogs will be much improved this season, and most of it comes down to the recruitment of Kyle Flanagan. Canterbury have long been starved of a quality, goal-kicking playmaker, and the new half ticks those boxes.
Flanagan doesn’t have to be elite just yet. If he’s solid and plays each game, that would already be a vast improvement on what the Dogs halves have delivered in the previous years.
With a new coach, and some new talent, it’s a new dawn out at Belmore and I can see the Dogs pushing for the finals, before falling agonisingly short in the last round of the year.
5. The Wests Tigers ‘win’ the wooden spoon
I can’t tell if I actually believe this pick, or I just like needling, as this is sure to have me on the outer with my in-laws and best mate, all of whom are rabid Tigers supporters. But what can I do?
The Tigers are going to suck. It’s that simple.
My old Twitter friend/foe Will Sinclair keeps talking up how smart the Tigers have been in the off-season, by not spending their money on big name duds, but instead wisely investing in unheralded recruits. That’s exactly what you say when you miss out on all the good players.
The only real danger to this prediction – other than me getting egg on my face – is the Dragons. Or the Cowboys. Which is a textbook example of how to alienate three fan-bases in one prediction. Oh what the hell, I may as well go for four: the Warriors will be horrendous as well.
Bonus prediction – the ladder
1. Panthers
2. Storm
3. Rabbitohs
4. Roosters
5. Raiders
6. Knights
7. Eels
8. Titans
9. Bulldogs
10. Sharks
11. Broncos
12. Sea Eagles
13. Warriors
14. Cowboys
15. Dragons
16. Tigers
GregM
Roar Rookie
Origin - they had to do with what they had as a squad in a bubble, so obviously stuck with players playing out of position if you cannot bring in anyone else
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
https://www.theroar.com.au/2020/10/27/revisiting-my-five-fearless-predictions-for-the-2020-nrl-season/
Kent Dorfman
Roar Rookie
what screwed up Freddies Origin was the bubble, not being able to bring in new players, after realising that playing players out of position doesn't work. (and no utility bench player in G3) As a Queensland supporter though - QUEENSLANDER!!
watcher
Guest
As a Warriors fan I would like to point out that they performed pretty well last season, definitely better than the predicted 13-spoon. Just into the starting lineup comes Fusitua, Maumalo, Aitken, Sironen, Fonua-Blake, Murdoch-Masilla and Afoa. Plus Murchie and Kane Evans with minor injuries.
Retro Rabbit
Roar Rookie
The fact that Jack Wighton won the Dally M medal at all is already a travesty and an indictment of the entire system. For Jack "White-out" to win two successive Dally M awards would be akin to Alice falling through the looking glass into Wonderland! Btw, the Tigers won't win the wooden spoon. Not when they have such strong competition in the Dragons, the Broncos and potentially the Sea Eagles if they lose Turbo, DCE or both for any extended period of time.
KenW
Roar Rookie
So if we discount the first year where he won against Slater & Smith, and conjure the idea of a significant talent imbalance in the 2 series since, we come to the conclusion that Fittler is terrible. I think it's more correct to say that Fittler has been mostly successful but his side lost the 2020 series despite being favourites,
Christo
Roar Guru
Great article, I had the Dragons getting the spoon, however the the Tigers most certainly get the spoon as well as their side is looking weak this season. I made an article and said Dragons would get the spoon this season and I got slammed by Dragons fans, some of them were saying dragons would make the finals this year!
Rellum
Roar Guru
Redcliffe need to up their political game in the boardrooms and with Murdoch. The Jets make no sense as a bid yet mates rates might just get them over the line.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Tigers to make the 8 Cleary to win Dally M Cam Smith to Titans Panthers to make GF
Nat
Roar Guru
Pt 1, No doubt the Panthers benefitted from the consistent HGA. It does make it tough on a younger group but now they're a season better, mature and good combos formed. Hard to match last years run but they'll be there abouts again IMO.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Bennett had the same stats after his first 3 series as coach as Fittler. Bennett had Wally Lewis among other players like Meninga and Miles. 3-3 is accurate as long as you ignore Fittlers first series..
mushi
Roar Guru
The big talent imbalance was the last two years, he’s won three games and lost three games.
matth
Roar Guru
I'm predicting Penrith to have a bit of 'second year syndrome' and drop back to the bottom half of the 8. Losing grand finalist this year? Souths. The Dally M is reserved for Corey Norman, but failing that I think Jack Wighton is as good a guess as any. Teddy is always a chance. If Manly exceed expectations then DCE might be a smokey. Wouldn't it be nice to see a forward win it for once but I can't think of who that would be. State of Origin is a lottery this year. QLD have a new coach so who knows how that will go. Last year was an anomaly, but generally the best team with few key injuries wins. If AJ Brimson and Harry Grant remain fit and firing QLD might just do it again. Hard to get enthusiastic about the Doggies, but I don't think they'll finish last. The Tigers and Dragons will be fighting that out unless the Warriors have bad injury luck and implode. My fearless predictions: - Knights to miss the finals and Ponga to be on the bench for Origin as AJ Brimson takes his spot. - Bennett to march the Rabbitohs nearly all the way to glory, only to be taken down by his old nemesis Craig Bellamy in the decider. - The Eels to collapse in a pile of rubble. - Cronulla to be so anonymous that people will have to be reminded they are in fact playing in the competition, but they will still finish in the eight. - Canberra to complain about unfair treatment at some point - The Broncos to be travelling so well half way through the season that they offer a bribe to the NRL to ensure there is no introduction of relegation and promotion, but they have a dead cat bounce to finish around 12th. - Although I would love to see the mighty Redcliffe Dolphins join the top flight I have a sneaking suspicion that the Brisbane Jets will be announced as the 17th team in the competition.
Tony
Roar Guru
Dear oh dear. We might need a go fund me collection to bail you out
kk
Roar Pro
Hi Nat, Good to be enjoying your commentary again. Amazing how they back up each other as though choreographed, in both attack and defence. I salute their mental and physical dedication to duty in being able to meet any challenge the opposition may deliver.
farkurnell
Roar Rookie
Logic tells me some Top6 teams from last year will fall down the ladder.The Storm minus GOAT is the obvious candidate.Without any scientific analysis I’m predicting the Decline of the Raiders n Roosters,although I think the lattter are a bit Skinny in the Halves. Whether they fall out of the 8 will depend on the improve in the likes of Titans Cows Knights n NZ
Phantom
Roar Rookie
How did your predictions of last years comp work out.
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
I started saying the Dragons thing in jest, I actually truly believe they will make the 8 after giving it a lot of thought. I have actually put money on it so I'll see how I go :thumbup:
KenW
Roar Rookie
What's 3-3? He's 2-1 with a 56% win ratio - it's not bad I'm not sure there's an overwhelming talent imbalance either. Certainly the early 2000's NSW and the QLD teams from 10 years later enjoyed far bigger advantages. I don't think anyone running around at the moment is likely to enjoy immortal status.
Nat
Roar Guru
You're not far off the mark with needing a dominant pack kk. The Roosters double was probably ther most balanced team - pack v backs. Otherwise Melb, Souths, Cowboys and Sharks all got their title on the back of their respective packs in the last decade.