With rugby’s off-season dominated by Eddie Jones’ shift to Japan, and the confirmation that Rugby Australia really doesn’t have any money, the start of Super Rugby – that is, real, on-field action – can’t come quickly enough.
Where the embattled Rebels are concerned, there is more to play out in the coming weeks. Two battlegrounds have essentially been formed; Rebels’ board members hitting back at Rugby Australia, given the precedent set with the Waratahs and the pending release of a report likely to show significant over-spending on a doomed World Cup campaign, unwilling to be saddled with debt they believe belongs to the game; and what high-performance professional rugby might look like for 2025 and beyond.
With so many variables and unknowns in play, it’s pointless trying to speculate where things are headed, until the cards actually fall. An existing 2030 participation agreement, a new broadcasting rights round, nervous administrators, World Rugby’s willingness to tip in funds to keep their Pasifika project alive, the ambition and largesse of state governments, and competing demands for scarce revenue are all key factors that will help shape the short and medium-term future.
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The only given is that, short of SANZAAR relocating their office to Riyadh, financial reckoning day is near. To the Rebels’ misfortune, Rugby Australia is in the process of demonstrating it has arrived already. But it would be the height of naivety – or deliberate mischievousness – to believe the Rebels engine is the only one running on one and a half cylinders.
New Zealand rugby, in the meantime, remains too heavily dependent on the All Blacks. Temporarily cashed up, courtesy of NZ Rugby’s private equity deal with Silver Lake, concerns have already emerged that this cash is being devoured at a much faster rate than anticipated, without anything tangible or lasting to show for it.
In that context, the last thing New Zealand rugby needs is a Rugby Championship and Super Rugby partner which offers little more than the promise of dragging them even deeper underwater.
One barometer is the long-awaited Super Rugby Commission. Fifteen years late but launched enthusiastically by Mark Robinson and Phil Waugh before Christmas, very little has been seen or heard since. Ostensibly a vehicle via which to better position and promote Super Rugby, it remains to be seen how much the current financial situation might prevent it from being sufficiently resourced.
With the season start now just days away, and a rugby circuit-breaker dearly needed, it feels like a curious decision by host broadcaster Stan, to release their documentary of last year’s failed World Cup mission on the eve of the opening match.
Like any business, Stan is entitled to maximise its commercial return, but the decision to focus backwards – yes, more Eddie – and not look to pump up the opening weekend of the new season, is both curious and uncomfortable.
This time last year we cast our eye across the franchises to highlight players to watch across the 2023 season. The idea wasn’t to pick the best players, but to try to identify players on the up, perhaps returning from injury or who were at a crossroads, with the potential to propel their careers, and their Super Rugby side, forwards.
The exercise immediately proved to be the kiss of death for George Bell (Crusaders) Izack Rodda (Force) and Jona Nareki (Highlanders) who suffered long-term injuries. Also highlighted were players like Mark Nawaqanitawase, Rameka Poihipi and Ilaisa Droasese who had decent enough seasons, without knocking it out of the park.
The undoubted successes were Cam Roigard (Hurricanes) and Leicester Fainga’anuku (Crusaders) who both established themselves as well-performed All Blacks, and Vaiolini Ekuasi. This year, positioned at No.8, with a strong and stable Rebels scrum to launch off, Ekuasi will again prove to be a real handful.
Cameron Roigard. (Photo by Mark Tantrum/Getty Images)
So who, for the 2024 season, are the players to watch from each franchise? In no particular order;
Hybrid lock/flanker for the Blues, Cameron Suafoa boasts an impressive pedigree including NZ Schools, NZ Maori and, last year, the All Blacks XV. A natural ball runner, Suafoa impressed last season, and should be primed to take another step forward in 2024.
Across town, at Moana Pasifika (that’s across at Mount Smart Stadium, Auckland, not AAMI Park, Melbourne) centre/wing Pepesana Patafilo is good enough to have already played Super Rugby for the Hurricanes, plus another five matches last year for the Crusaders. Having lost their two powerful ball-carriers in Timoci Tavatavanawai and Levi Aumua, he’s a great pick-up.
Everyone loves a rampaging loose forward, and with another strong Super Rugby campaign, the Chiefs’ Samipeni Finau has a fantastic opportunity to make the All Blacks’ No 6 jersey his own, in 2024.
Down in Wellington, Ruben Love had a frustrating, injury-plagued 2023, but if his brilliant out-fielding and catching in a recent T20 cricket match is anything to go by, he’s back in tip-top shape. He’s one of those players who has high utility value, but look for the Hurricanes to use him more at 10 this year, in combination with Roigard.
Every time there is a change of coach and a player list renewal at the Crusaders, other franchises wonder if this really is the year when the perennial champions fall away.
Rob Penney gets his opportunity to show New South Welshman that he really can coach, and one player who will be crucial for him is Tamaiti Williams. Williams took a huge step last year from baby-faced, puppy fat, promising youngster, to respected Test prop, and should now be expected to go on with it.
Highlanders’ halfback Folau Fakatava finally gets the opportunity to step out from Aaron Smith’s shadow. He’s good enough to light up the competition, and in the process, reassert himself in the All Blacks.
@skysportnz Aaron Smith may be gone, but the Highlanders #9 jersey remains in good hands with Folau Fakatava if this try is anything to go by! ???????? #SuperRugby pre-season action is underway all afternoon long on #SkySportNZ… ♬ original sound – skysportnz
There was a lot to like last year about how Tom Lynagh took to Super Rugby, for the Reds. Talented and brave, can he begin to command more authority over Tate McDermott, and provide more cohesion to the Reds’ attack?
The conveyor belt of strong-running outside backs emerging from Fiji is a rugby cliché, but the latest budding star winger, Epeli Momo, looks like an absolute handful. A Fiji Under 20 representative, he gave the Canberra crowd at last weekend’s trial match a tasty preview of what he will bring to this season’s competition.
The Waratahs have perhaps the most anticipated new recruit in Australia, in the hulking Miles Amatosero. Playing in the French Top 14 for Clermont-Auvergne – a team noted for hard-edged, combative forward play – when just 18 years of age, speaks volumes for his physical presence. Standing 6ft 8ins and now 21 years of age, one can only imagine where the limit is, when he eventually grows up.
Miles Amatosero. (Photo: Julius Dimataga, NSW Media)
With Joe Schmidt committing at this stage to just two years with the Wallabies, I’m tempted to single out coach Stephen Larkham, as the man to watch at the Brumbies.
But forced to nominate a player, 24-year-old Tom Hooper, one of a number of young Australian players to come through the Wallabies’ turbulent 2023, should be ready this season to step forward and dominate.
Many eyes at the Rebels are on high-profile recruit Taniela Tupou, but it’s his friend and confidante Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, who has enjoyed a strong pre-season and has emerged as a talismanic leader around the club.
With the emerging, athletic Josh Canham alongside him in the second row, a happy and settled Salakaia-Loto, shapes as one of the best recruits in the competition.
The Force have also recruited well, but I’m looking forward to seeing more of Sam Spink, who enjoyed a highly impressive 2023 season. Still only 24, the ex-Wasps centre combines nice hands with strong running and no-nonsense defence.
That’s 12 players who, in another world where rugby had the money and initiative to market itself properly, would be all over social media channels, and mainstream media outlets, alongside other established stars of the game, enticing audiences to tune in from next Friday.
It doesn’t stop with these 12, however. Who are the players you are looking at, to light up Super Rugby in 2024?
BleedRedandBlack
Roar Rookie
"You choose 4 teams and say: we can only support 4, and everyone believes it. You choose 7 teams and say: we can only support 7, and everyone believes it." That sums it up. All to accurately. No planning, no vision, no idea.
Muglair
Roar Rookie
The most serious issue you raise is NZ running through its PE funds. Like every other rugby organisation that has sold a revenue share to an “investor”. It is clear they share many of the challenges faced by RA, without the benefit of being the national #1 sport, demonstrating that these PE structure deals will not be a solution for RA. Although NZ did only sell a small share of its revenue, it did pass 85% of future global opportunities to Silver Lake. Descriptions of the deal also intimated that only a convertible note type transaction had been completed, meaning the final shape of the deal may yet to be confirmed.
Spew_81
Roar Rookie
Great call regarding Suafoa. I'm suprised that almost no one else is talking about him (especially in New Zealand). Could be the answer at lock/blindside, for both the Blues and the All Blacks. He's: tough, all hard work, and skilled.
JD Kiwi
Roar Rookie
You've just agreed with me Brendan. As I've been saying, unions need to live in the real world and break even over time, funding the whole rugby pyramid. Sugar daddy owned clubs don't. And it's not like clubs have to fund all the rugby in a whole region as you suggest. That's ultimately the responsibility of the union. RA have as you say been appallingly run, but at least the potential is there for them to take control and put in reforms like Ireland have because the states are accountable to them. Club based systems are the wild west because clubs are only accountable to their owners. So sugar daddy clubs weaponise money and other clubs try to keep up and go bust. And the lack of accountability means that clubs tend to overwork their players from an early age. So you have stars like Ntamack reporting that he only gets a rest when he's injured and poor Curry needing a metal hip aged 25 because he was playing over 30 games a season aged 20. It's no coincidence that for all their playing numbers and riches, club based nations have won just one RWC between them. Even the french golden has lost its shine at a very young age due to overwork. Top down systems can still be run badly like Australia, but only they have the ability to make a system truly work as a functioning whole.
Dan James
Roar Rookie
NZR won’t go direct to the consumer because even if they win over every rugby fan using Sky NZ, they will make far less money then receive from Sky. An assertion based on nothing.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
Yes, completely right. You choose 4 teams and say: we can only support 4, and everyone believes it. You choose 7 teams and say: we can only support 7, and everyone believes it. The way they went about it was to set their bar absurdly low and then claim it was the only possibility. It's enormously damaged the game which could have been on top of the world in all three countries. Australia could quickly have added more teams in Sydney, Brisbane, then Newcastle and Gold Coast which would have got decent crowds and increased TV revenue. With that money they could have gone into Perth, Melbourne, Adelaide and afforded to support the new teams through their growing periods. Not sure at all what New Zealand were cautious about. Indeed, more teams especially around Auckland could have accessed the one pool of players left in the country, taken by rugby league, and guaranteed endless depth and security. Instead the Warriors get 24,000 crowds. South Africa maddest of all. Plentiful teams can get huge crowds, giving playing opportunities that would transform an already formidable team and game. A North/South Island Series played at a similar time to an SOO would bring in millions for both countries, and cover many of the kind of economic issues they're having now. I'm sure there must be some worse run sports in the world, but I'm not sure I've seen them.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
So the national union in France and England deal with poorly managed clubs and NZR and RA deal with poorly managed local unions. Atleast RFU and FFR don't have to put in money like RA has had to do with its Unions. The national union purposefully using a 100m line of credit puts rugby in Oz in a more serious state than any private club going bankrupt. I am not sure we will ever know how much the recent RA bailouts are going to have cost and how much debt it added.
JD Kiwi
Roar Rookie
That's nonsense. Club owners aren't trying to maximise profits, they've racked up huge accumulated losses to win trophies. A big difference is that ultimately national unions need to break even over time and they hold financially irresponsible provinces to account. That's what's happening right now in both Australia and New Zealand. On the other hand, clubs can keep on swallowing money for as long as owners are willing and able to stump up the cash in pursuit of glory.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Not really. Both are investing in Rugby in their region and using the money to maximise profits. Just cause its a Union do different rules apply to it. 2009-12 the New Zealand Rugby Union has had to provide loans to Otago, Southland, Tasman and Waikato, while Northland, Bay of Plenty, and Counties Manukau and Manawatu have all experienced financial pressure (NYT). It seems to me that people think Unions have no rules and can make losses with no consequences while if a private club makes any loss its the worst thing ever. At a certain point bills need to be paid and as we see in Oz out of the 5 teams and RA only the Force are not in financial peril.
JD Kiwi
Roar Rookie
The obvious difference is that one investment is for all the current and future players in an entire country whereas the other is a very rich man spending money on his very expensive toy.
Ankle-tapped Waterboy
Roar Rookie
I am told from a reliable source that the lads have taken to shortening these names. For example, "Jona" is "Jo".
Honest Max
Roar Rookie
NZR won’t go direct to the consumer because even if they win over every rugby fan using Sky NZ, they will make far less money then receive from Sky. This is counterintuitive because it seems logical that they’d make more if they cut out the middle-man, but the economics are undeniable. NZR will not go direct to the public in their major markets unless they hate money.
Wayne
Roar Rookie
CPM, I think they saw how successful the SABC was with doing the Top14 on FTA in SA and want to try something to increase viewership. Here is an interesting article ; https://www.sabc.co.za/sabc/media-statement-sabc-sport-performs-strongly-in-rugby-ratings/
BleedRedandBlack
Roar Rookie
Nothing about the expansion from the original Super 12 has ever made any sense to me. Why has NZ never sought more teams, even though they have ended in the bizzare situation of SR players having to go and play for a different domestic team after SR? There is no other professional sport in the world that insists their players play for two domestic teams. Its an expensive and incoherent mess. Agreed about Aussie expansion. The NRL has one genuine project team, the Storm. SR Aussie, which is about a quarter of the size of the NRL by most measures, has two. That's nuts. SR Aussie needed to expand with NSW and Queensland first, get a better base, then go for their big adventure. it also needed to aggressively co-opt the Pasifika teams, particularly Fiji, in order to bulk up. SA should have pushed for 6 teams early on, co-opted Argentina straight away, and built a competition that strengthened the Currie Cup rather than killed it. In short, the southern hemisphere should by now have three primary competitions based on NZ, OZ and SA, and a champions league. Just like the Northern Hemisphere does. And as for North vs South game, dont get me started. Why such a valuable product has been allowed to languish for thirty years is utterly beyond me. But then NSWRL didn't want State of Origin, did they?
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
I should also add that in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, the idea of just ignoring half the major markets in each country is a quite bizarre idea and no surprise that Super rugby hasn’t done well. Another question is why do you the North vs South Island fixture hasn’t been repeated?
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
That looks perfect and with the speed of population growth in time it will work out at 600,000 per team. Funnily enough it's almost the same in Australia. The expansion there has been was to quite new markets in WA and Victoria (though not yet South Australia), while the heartlands of the game have been totally ignored. It's pretty likely that Western Sydney, another Sydney team at least, another in Brisbane plus Newcastle and Gold Coast would have drawn far bigger crowds and if ten teams had been the starting point, the game could be in a completely different place now. Instead everything lives and dies on whether new market expansion teams succeed without the money from reliable heartland teams to support them. I always thought the five team concept was disastrous for all three countries for different reasons.
piru
Roar Rookie
Who's pulling out?
piru
Roar Rookie
Why does this all feel like “NRC but my favourite club gets to be in it too”? Club level isn’t the issue, rep level is – as in we don’t have one
East Coast Aces
Roar Rookie
you may disagree but they get more money and financial certainty going through other broadcasters. major content/networks/streamers are realising this and pulling out of having their own streaming service
Colvin Brown
Roar Guru
The Highlanders have an eye-catching team this year and surely have aimed for the most exotically named back 3 to watch in Super Rugby history. How's this for a memorably named back 3; Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens, Timoci Tavatavanawai and Jona Nareki? (Jona made Geoff's list of players to watch last year). We note that our only potential competitor in the exotically named stakes is Mark Nawaqanitawase who is moving on from the sport. Watch our boys go this year and keep their names in your mind.