We spent so much time in this finals series assuming that Richmond at least making the grand final if not winning it was essentially guaranteed that the task of analysis a Tiger-less decided has thrown us.
Collingwood vs West Coast is one of the more unlikely potential grand final scenarios that could have come out of last week’s matches, but also one of the most appealing.
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» Collingwood Magpies player ratings
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These two after all played the closest and most entertaining match of the finals series just three weeks ago, West Coast eventually sneaking home at Optus Stadium.
That match saw both sides bring back players from medium to long term injury – Josh J Kennedy for the Eagles, Tyson Goldsack, Adam Treloar and Jeremy Howe for the Magpies.
All four of those players have had reasonably impressive returns in the finals so far and all have improved as the series has gone on, and that – along with, obviously, the change of venue – makes this a different ball game than it was three weeks ago.
In particular, after only having an influence late in the first week of finals, Kennedy was enormous in West Coast’s victory over Melbourne last week.
The key to victory for the Eagles on grand final day will be the dominance of their tall forwards, Kennedy and also Jack Darling, against Collingwood’s undersized and injury-riddled backline.
It was noted last week that the injuries that the personnel problems in Collingwood’s backline weren’t much of a factor against Richmond’s small forward line, and if anything probably shaped the ideal defensive unit to counter the Tigers.
However while Collingwood choked Richmond out of the contest pretty conclusively, Jack Riewoldt as a tall target still kicked five goals. It wasn’t enough to change the game, but how different can it be with West Coast who’ll have two tall targets?
Of course the other factor to consider here is the weather.
A lot of the talk leading up to the match is that it’s expected to be a cold and wet one, but right now at the moment of writing, Google weather tells me cold yes, rainy no.
If there’s good dry conditions then I reckon that, even though Collingwood will probably have the measure if not the better of West Coast in the midfield, I don’t think they’ll have an answer for Kennedy and Darling.
If there’s wet conditions then not only does that likely nullify the impact of West Coast’s talls but it also hurts their ability to move the ball quickly and precisely which is their other great strength.
My gut feel says that the weather will be not so bad after all and at the end of the day it’ll be blue and gold confetti you see shot out of those cannons.
West Coast by 24 points.
Norm Smith: Josh J Kennedy.
First Goal: Jack Darling.
(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
Cameron Rose
West Coast have beaten Collingwood twice already this season, but that hasn’t counted for much so far in the finals with three teams being defeated despite holding a 2-0 record in 2018 over their opponents.
This grand final puts together two teams that have been underrated all season, yet have kept on defying the critics. If that trend continues, it augurs well for the underdog Eagles.
West Coast by 18 points.
Norm Smith: Elliot Yeo.
First Goal: Jamie Cripps.
TomC
These teams look even on paper, with Collingwood stronger in the midfield and the Eagles having an edge at the bookends.
It was West Coast’s forward line that was decisive in their last encounter; while the Magpies led until deep in the game once they stopped consistently winning the clearances they allowed important late goals to Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling.
Ultimately Collingwood will need their midfield to get on top. But with Brodie Grundy giving first use and Steele Sidebottom in extraordinary form that seems more likely than not.
At a neutral venue I’d have little hesitation in picking the Eagles on the basis of their key position strength.
With rain and cold weather forecast, and at the MCG that the Magpies play so well, I have to give the edge to Collingwood.
Collingwood by 10 points.
Norm Smith Medal: Steele Sidebottom.
First goal: Jordan De Goey, maybe. Beats me why this is something people want to bet on.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
| Grand Final | Josh E | Adrian P | Cam R | TomC | The Crowd |
| COL vs WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE | COL | WCE |
| Last week | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 139 | 140 | 141 | 146 | 147 |
Angela
Guest
Haven't a clue who the winner will be but I really, really hope West Coast beats Collingwood on Collingwood's home ground. A win outside Victoria is long overdue and would go a long way to shutting up all us moaners about the home ground/home state advantage at the jolly old G.
Ben Kerrison
Guest
Collingwood by 14 points, Brayden Maynard man of the match ( A Stab in the dark, and remain Clueless lol )
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Eagles and Storm double.
Tommoooo
Guest
Beagles are a better side than the tigers; besides you’re right about momentum, but I don’t think we’ll see either team get a clear early runaway (greater than 3-4 goals anyway) - they’re both pretty evenly matched as the semi final result would suggest
The Finger
Guest
Much of West Coast’s momentum last week against Melbourne was a combination of a very loud and parochial crowd, hot conditions, and Melbourne’s inability to stay on their feet - plus their horror error rate and curious decision-making! This weekend there will be a lot of hostile fans, cold and blustery conditions and a very confident Magpie outfit that will make for a tough contest. It was reportedly only a timely blast from Sam Mitchell at 3 qtr time that got WCE over the line against Collingwood in the last quarter of their first finals match in Perth. Playing at their home ground this weekend is a huge (unfair imo) bonus for Collingwood. If WCE are to win, they must be very, very disciplined and minimise their error rate. If Cox repeats his blinder from last week, it might be a long and lonely return home for the Eagles. For the sake of footy, I’d love to see the Eagles win. But, I think that Collingwood will push away in the last quarter.
Gerry
Roar Rookie
Wishful thinking but that’s not going to happen Matt it will be a close one I reckon but if the Eagles stuff it up Collingwood will show no mercy believe me.
Gerry
Roar Rookie
I think and dearly hope this is going to be one of the closest grand finals edge of your seat stuff. Don’t get me wrong Collingwood really punished Richmond for just thinking they had to turn up to win. However I think the Eagles would have beaten Richmond anyway. The MCG holds no fears at all don’t know what the VICS keep going on about . 2015 was all about how Hawthorn did a number on the Eagles game plan and it came off fantastically for them. This time though Eagles are primed and ready if they play anywhere near their best football no other team will beat them home ground advantage or not. If they stuff it up Collingwood will clean up simple as. Nuff said.
Gerry
Roar Rookie
Yeah right in your dreams pal
Gerry
Roar Rookie
It ain’t gonna happen matey sorry but FairPlay for supporting your lot.
herewego
Guest
Collingwood by plenty. No interstate team has ever won the flag against a home team without either draft or salary cap concessions. It wont happen on Sat - home ground advantage just too big an advantage for the away team to overcome. The sixth consecutive GF where the home team has won - the last 5 of which were undeserved home ground advantages. Simple fix to this bias - hold the GF in Perth and Adelaide every 4th year and the MCG every other year and with it boost a competition seriously lacking in integrity
IAP
Guest
I’ll still be around. Hopefully we won’t have to put up with wall to wall West Coast drivel after they choke yet again at the MCG on the big day. I’m looking forward to that; should be fun.
Klompy
Roar Rookie
I believe the Mighty Eagles will win the Grand Final by 25 Points. First goal by Jack Redden, Norm Smith Medalist Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy Kicking 6 goals. Bring it home Eagles.
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
Just thing.....we won't have to put up with your inane comments for 6 months very shorty.... Thank you lord, thank you Jesus.....
Scott
Guest
The norm Smith is an awesome market this year. Prob more so if West Coast wins. They have so many players that can randomly play BOGs (especially since the media choose it). Yeo and Shuey obvious, but redden and Sheed are contested midfielders who are in form. Any of Kennedy, Darling, Ryan, Rioli, Cripps and Lecras could pop up and kick a bag. Then McGovern and Barrass as intercept markers and prob the best bet of all Shannon Hurn. A massively open market
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Yeah they said the same about the Tigers and that didn’t work out so well for them.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Also, let’s add home ground advantage. Collingwood have played 59 games at the mcg over the past four seasons, not inc finals played there, an average of 15 per season in 23 games each season. For the sake of analogy (using ave age and ave games numbers) that means their players have over 75% of all their senior games at the GF venue, and done so since before they turned 21 years. In a comparative analogy of any non Vic team l believe you would find games played at that venue over the same period being 10 or less, regardless of age. A vast advantage to the locals.
tim
Roar Rookie
I see some wildcards: selection: will Pies bring in Reid? Who is the Dustin Martin, playing injured? And one of the surprising things about these teams is how well they have adapted to unexpected availability, including when it happens in-game. This could be game where dynamic coaching and moves throughout the game could be a big factor, particularly as the teams are asymmetrical, and where they have perhaps an unusual number of players who have played both offensive and defensive roles. Weather is very unlikely to be a wildcard. Crowd: maybe. It's the replays where the GF crowds are much more partisan, I reckon that's an under-rated 2010 factor, but on the main day, not so much.
PriddisJunior
Roar Rookie
West coast by 3. Start fast and kick away but the pies claw themselves back. Finishing with a classic high scoring last quarter which JK kicks 3 in, taking the vfl grand final best on ground medal as well as the cup from those dirty vics. Umpires want be a factor and people will be asking why the men in suits are messing with the rules... again
JamesH
Roar Guru
I tipped the Eagles too. Of course in past years I've also tipped (most recent first) Adelaide, Sydney, WC, Sydney, Freo and Hawthorn, so Collingwood will probably win. Wow, I haven't tipped a winner since Geelong in 2011. That's shameful.
WCEBeanie
Roar Rookie
Totally disagree, if West Coast are behind they will keep on coming, they have done it all year. They will be fitter as they have only played 2 finals.