The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 12

It’s time to hit the dreaded bye rounds – and just as we were all getting into a good rhythm.

There are just six games to tip each weekend for the next three, but a lot of them have serious upset potential – so there’s no ‘bye’ for us tipsters!

It was sevens across the board on The Roar’s AFL expert tipping panel last week. Dem Panopoulos got one up on us by tipping the Demons over the Dogs on Friday night before squandering that advantage by tipping Carlton over Sydney.

It means both he and Liam Salter remain neck and neck at 67 on the leaderboard, just one point behind the Crowd on 68. I’m poised to make my move very soon. Very, very soon.

Stirling Coates

Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide, Richmond, Carlton, Western Bulldogs

We got ourselves a first-versus-second game to start the round last week that didn’t quite deliver – but it’s another blockbuster on tap tomorrow night that should live up to the hype.

Brisbane’s 1-3 start has seen them fly completely under the radar despite being hotter than hot since. I had them as my preseason premiership favourite before the season began and I’m happy to stay on that horse at this stage of the year.

However, the Demons are in supreme form too. They’ve literally lost one game by a single point and dished out an ominous reminder against the Dogs that they are very much the real deal. Winning streaks don’t last forever, so I’ll back Melbourne to cool off the Lions this time.

The extent to which the Saints laboured against North Melbourne last week already put me off tipping them to upset the Swans – and that’s especially true now with the home ground advantage being flipped.

Everyone still has Sydney as the most vulnerable top-eight side right now. I wonder what it will take for people to ease off that prediction.

It was a thumping loss to Collingwood in the early goings of 2018 that twigged Crows fans to the fact their side might be in strife three years ago – and I expect the medicine to be dished out in reverse on Saturday.

The Magpies are brown bread. It’s over. They can’t play football. Their only tactic on game day is to play as defensively as they possibly can to restore some modicum of respect to the scoreboard because, deep down, they know their skills aren’t remotely up to scratch and that the game has well and truly passed Nathan Buckley’s coaching style by.

Honestly, I hate the Pies as much as the next footy fan, but if he’s still at the helm in 2022, I’ll riot. Crows by five goals.

Nathan Buckley (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Good on the Bombers for their performance last week – they’re making me eat my prediction of a bottom-four finish. Richmond really need to have their wits about them in this match, but surely they’re still good enough to take the chocolates.

Sunday afternoon is upset time. We all know the Eagles have a terrible record away from Perth, but having their clash with Carlton moved to the SCG is quite simply the worst-case scenario from a West Coast point of view.

Taking their kick-heavy, uncontested style of football to the short confines of the SCG is a recipe for disaster – it simply doesn’t work. They haven’t won at the ground since 1999 and in fact haven’t even cracked 90 points in that time either.

Carlton’s historical record at the SCG is also very poor, but their midfield is far more suited to the dimensions, as evidenced by them pushing Sydney all the way for three quarters last Sunday. I’m backing them to cause the boilover.

Fremantle could’ve been a sniff against the Bulldogs in the last match of the round but, unfortunately for them, the Doggies lost last week and simply won’t drop two in a row. They are hunting their first-ever win at Optus Stadium, however.

There are no obvious candidates for a Shoe-In of the Week this week. Incredibly, despite their contrasting fortunes last season, it’s going to have to be the Swannies over St Kilda.

Dem Panopoulos

Brisbane, Sydney, Adelaide, Richmond, West Coast, Western Bulldogs

Welcome the bye rounds, where there are only six games to pick from and creating separation in tipping competitions is harder.

The Demons did the job in one of my rogue picks, but tipping the Blues was wishful thinking when they picked Levi Casboult to play as a defender.

Fixturing is a constant mess for the AFL, but it looks like everything has settled down and we can look forward to a couple of really nice contests.

There’s little doubt that Melbourne and Brisbane are about to participate in the game of the season. I won’t go into this one too much, as I’ll be going into greater analytical and statistical detail about how both teams can win in tomorrow’s piece if that piques your collective interest.

It’s a tough game, but we’ll go with Brisbane by a smidge.

The Saints and Swans are playing on Saturday afternoon, and these games tend to be massive blowouts.

On one hand, St Kilda really aren’t a good football team. On the other hand, the Swans are bound to have a few issues in games they should be winning along the way. Unfortunately for Saints fans, I’m not willing to take a risk on your team given how unimpressive they’ve been.

Adelaide are hosting Collingwood, a team they haven’t beaten since 2016. The Crows have been quite competitive this season, while the Magpies had one goal in three quarters against the Cats. It feels like a game the home team should win, but be careful of the impact Darcy Cameron will have.

Dreamtime at the 5G has a ring to it, and those in Western Australia will get out to Optus Stadium in droves to have the rare opportunity to watch one of the best fixtures of the season. Everyone has fallen in love with Essendon, justifiably, and their electric style will cause plenty of headaches.

The Tigers will now miss Toby Nankervis, giving even more of an opportunity to the Mabior Chol-Callum Coleman-Jones combination that played well against the Crows.

Many may be tempted to ride the Bombers wave, but a professional outfit simply needs to get this job done.

It seems crazy that the Blues are perhaps a more favoured team among the media to beat the Eagles, but that’s what 2021 has thrown at us. I’ll give West Coast one more chance.

The final game of the round will be Fremantle and the Bulldogs, a game which should be quite entertaining. It’s a tough upcoming run for the best offensive unit in the competition, so they simply cannot afford to lose this game.

Liam Salter

Brisbane, Sydney, Adelaide, Richmond, West Coast, Western Bulldogs

We’ve hit the bye rounds. Why are they spread over three weeks? I don’t know. At least it makes for an intriguing round.

The week’s key game, Melbourne versus Brisbane, was never planned to be played in Melbourne, rather Alice Springs, but has now been moved to Sydney. First up, let’s hope this is a more competitive contest than the Dees’ win over the Dogs last week. In saying that, it was that win that propels them into favouritism here, but the Lions, who’ve won seven on the trot, have premiership aspirations of their own.

Brisbane could regain Lachie Neale, which could even the scales against Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver in the Melbourne midfield. This is a genuine headscratcher – I’m going to take a risk and go for the Lions.

The Essendon-Tigers Dreamtime contest – in Perth, and sold out in a day – should be equally exciting. The Bombers are better than you think, with an upset win over the Eagles last week garnering attention. Richmond are not the Richmond of old but still should be a bridge too far for the youthful Bombers. The Tigers to win a close one.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Sydney taking on the Saints is a significantly easier tip, and I’ll put it forth without much in the way of explanation. The Swans are going to win, probably comfortably, continuing the trend of the Saints crashing back to Earth after taking the points in a winnable game the weekend prior.

I’m morbidly intrigued by the Adelaide-Collingwood fixture. The Pies look terrible in attack at the minute, which is a worry against a Crows side who can and likely will comfortably blow them away up forward. It wouldn’t particularly surprise me if Nathan Buckley’s men rally for a considerable amount of the game, but expect the home side to ultimately win with ease.

Sunday has a distinct West Aussie flavour. Freo take the Perth game of the week, hosting the Western Bulldogs to close out the round. The Dockers did plenty right in their brutal loss last week but were atrocious at kicking, goals and otherwise. They play better at home but simply cannot afford to be as inaccurate against the out-for-blood Dogs, who will likely be too offensively powerful for Freo’s patchwork defence. Expect the home side to make things tricky, but the Dogs will win.

For the Eagles, it is absolutely non-negotiable that they don’t slip up against Carlton. If they do, it would be a third consecutive loss and will do their poor travelling reputation considerably worse. The Blues have a tendency to surprise in these sorts of games, and their opposition is prime for the taking, but I have to (sensibly?) back West Coast.

Important: The AFL swapping home-ground advantage between Sydney and St Kilda gives our tipping system grief. Please double-check your tip for this match as, if you’ve entered it already this week, it may have been changed. Simply change your tip at the bottom of this article and hit submit again.

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