ANALYSIS: If this is the 2023 Panthers, then everyone else should be very worried indeed

They’d have had you believe that the Panthers were done. A slow start to the season – by their rapid standards, at least – had seen Penrith drop two games by a single point, which, allied with their World Club Challenge defeat to St Helens, set tongues wagging that the dynasty was over.

They’re quiet now. This showing was as dominant as any in the post-set restart era. 44-12 was the final score, but that doesn’t tell the half of it.

Penrith scored just twice after half time, the cue well and truly in the rack, after producing one of the best first halves of the NRL era. They led 32-0 at the break and that was kind on Manly. Nathan Cleary was, of course, the orchestrator, and Dylan Edwards the beneficiary with four tries.

“He stopped flying under the radar a long time ago, Dyl,” said coach Ivan Cleary. “He is a very competitive guy. He is pretty similar most weeks. I don’t know where Dyl rates, but maybe he has a chip on his shoulder.”

Manly had no answer. They scrapped their way to a more respectable scoreline, showing some decent spirit along the way, but it was all over bar the shouting well before they got a touch of the footy.

Last week, Canberra were exceptionally poor and the Panthers delivered a deserved thrashing. Today, it was hard to say if Manly had any say in the matter at all. This Penrith side removed any chance of a contest at all from the first whistle.

“Really disappointing first half,” said Anthony Seibold. “From a physical point of view, they beat us to the punch. They won every contest. The positive is we could have thrown in the towel in at halftime.The guys put in a fair bit of fight.”

Tom Trbojevic seemed in considerable pain at half time with a what appeared to be a hip issue, but confirmed post-match that it had been back spasms that calmed down in the second half.

“I started feeling it before the game, in the warm-up,” he told media. “A lot of people play through a lot of things in the game, it’s just part of it. It’s not the reason I didn’t play well today, it’s not the reason we didn’t perform the way we wanted to.”

Absolute domination from the Panthers

There are times where the numbers do not tell the whole story. 32-0 at half time might be the only stat that matters, given that the contest was over at the break, but let’s indulge some of the other ones.

Penrith had 73% of the ball, which manifested as 24 sets, of which 23 were completed. Manly’s 27% was worth just 13 sets, and they had made 174 tackles to the Panthers’ 74. 

The hosts had 81% of the territory, plus nine line breaks and a 650m running metre advantage. If anyone has seen a more one-sided first half, please do get in touch. 

(Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)

Manly simply weren’t able to compete with the ruthlessness coming at them. To be fair, it’s hard to think of anyone in the NRL who could have. 

The full credit goes to the Panthers. They didn’t dominate through conservatism, but through constant ball movement.

They pulled the Sea Eagles apart from side-to-side, with the bulk of their first half metres coming from edge players rather than their regular back 3 dominant style, which was enabled by masterful showings from Cleary and Isaah Yeo.

Their ability to hold the middle and shift into shape created qualitative superiorities where Izack Tago was frequently given early ball against a backpedaling Morgan Harper. It’s hard to blame the Manly centre – the damage was done before the ball came anywhere near him.

Manly’s defensive frailty is very worrying

Manly have been highly suspect in defence this year so far, with both Parramatta and Newcastle able to exploit their edges badly. They pretty much got away with it both times because they didn’t lose, but there’s no getting away from this. 

Kelma Tuilagi set the tone with the deadest of dead misses for Edwards’ first, and it only compounded as the mountain of Panthers possession grew.

There are probably mitigating factors in there.

Few teams can get anywhere near the reigning Premiers when they have such a ridiculously dominant amount of ball. 

Kaeo Weekes was defending in the halves for the first time and Jason Saab was on his return game after seven months out with an ACL tear. Reuben Garrick and Karl Lawton both departed early with injuries.

It’s tempting with all those aspects in play to write this one off as a bad day at the office. But it’s far from an isolated incident. 

In the early rounds, there was a clear emphasis on defensive intent, on making contact count and looking to physically impose themselves.

That has wandered badly in the last few weeks and Manly fans can only hope that it is regained sooner rather than later. Melbourne roll into Brookie next week and will love it if the Sea Eagles defend like this again.

Look left before right

As bad as Manly’s left edge was defensively, there was more to it than met the eye from the Panthers perspective. 

Sure, all the tries were ran in down the right, with the Cleary to Edwards connection putting on three before the break, but all of them came off the back of excellent work on the left that shuffled the defenders over and created the space wide.

Tago, in particular, terrorised the Manly edge of Saab, Harper and Daly Cherry-Evans.

There were two line breaks, but that only told half the story: he was able to get a run on Harper several times in a manner that, though it didn’t break the line per se, resulted in a fast, dominant play the ball which enabled the fast switch to an unset line on the left.

The solitary penalty goal was perhaps the best example. Tago advanced and got up quick, the Panthers put on the shift and Tuilagi was caught offside.