It was always shaping up this way, but suddenly this weekend’s Round 14 looks like it will have even bigger impact on the top two than first imagined.
The Chiefs, eight points clear on top, have more than one foot in the door of the minor premiership; even just a bonus point loss this weekend could secure top spot and a finals run all the way though in the ‘Tron, the City of the Future.
But behind them is anyone’s guess.
The Crusaders host the Waratahs in Christchurch, who ensured their finals berth last week but can’t finish higher than fifth, and a win for the red-and-blacks can keep the Brumbies at bay for another week. The Brumbies, on the other hand, need a massive favour from the Waratahs and a BP win over the Chiefs in Canberra to get back into second.
The Blues and Hurricanes face off at Eden Park in a cracking winner-takes-4th contest. But either could sneak into second spot with two wins and some very favourable results above them.
So goodness knows what we’re going to get this weekend. Except probably some pretty disparate selections to follow…
LAST WEEK: Digger 5, Harry 5, Christy 5, Brett 4, Geoff 4; The Crowd 3.
OVERALL: Digger 61, Brett 58, Christy 57, Geoff 55, Harry 51; The Crowd 57.
Digger
TIPS: HIGHLANDERS, REBELS, DRUA, CRUSADERS, HURRICANES, CHIEFS
This round starts off with a tricky wee proposition, the big question is what Reds will turn up this week?
They’re certainly capable and the Highlanders certainly have had their own issues this season, but I will stick with the home side for this one as the Reds are perhaps less trustworthy. The following game appears a little more straight forward, at least in my mind. The Rebels have been playing a lot better than their results would indicate and are due a win.
Carter Gordon of the Rebels (L) celebrates. Photo: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images
The Drua in Fiji are always a compelling pick especially given the form of their opponents this week in Moana Pasifika so the Drua for me, and while the Crusaders should be too good at home the Waratahs may just give them plenty to think about across the 80 minutes.
A couple of tricky ones here. The Blues should be good enough, especially with their defence against a Hurricanes side that has shown some issues on attack against the stauncher defending teams including the Blues themselves earlier this season, but bugger it; ‘Canes by plenty.
And one would imagine the Chiefs should be good enough in Canberra and the Brumbies recent form has not been that convincing, but I am sure they will be well up for this clash. I will let my bias rule and run with the Kiwi side.
SURE THING: Given the Super Finals are around the corner I am eagerly awaiting Stephen Jones’ next piece criticising the competition and to find out who will make and win this year’s, likely to be ‘insipid’ future final.
Harry
TIPS: HIGHLANDERS, REBELS, DRUA, CRUSADERS, BLUES, CHIEFS.
The Reds have been the most volatile team in Super Rugby. They are a bit like their coach’s biceps. The Landers have disappointed. This is the matchup between teams of woe. I have flipped a coin (an old doubloon) and it shows a Jacobite swordsman.
The Rebels and Force will square off in another game of the damned. But the Force surely cannot replicate the win. Rebels by the length of Geoff Parkes. A Drua-Moana “derby of the newbies” should be a spectacle, but a gap has opened and Fiji should rule the Pasifika.
The mighty Waratahs face the hitherto almighty Crusaders. The ‘Tahs have a few more flaws and it is getting cold. Winter = Crusaders.
Leicester Fainga’anuku of the Crusaders (Photo by Peter Meecham/Getty Images)
The match of the round should be the Blues and Hurricanes. A Kiwi North Island derby gets me going! Blues by a step or two.
The Chiefs will beat the Brumbies because the Force beat the Brumbies and the Chiefs are 20 net points better than the Force. Right?
SURE THING: Wooden spoons make better dough.
Christy
TIPS: HIGHLANDERS, REBELS, DRUA, CRUSADERS, HURRICANES, BRUMBIES
The stakes are high on Friday night. Finals hopes could be made or lost. All four sides will think they can win and, indeed, they can.
The Highlanders will want to send Aaron Smith out a winner at home. Similarly, the Reds will be desperate to make Brad Thorn’s final season in charge a memorable one. The Highlanders’ pack gives them the edge. It’s why I’m tipping them to sneak home.
The Rebels could easily have won five or six matches but, in fact, have won just three. They’ve played plenty of good rugby but the defeats have added up. The Rebels will have to be near their best, with work-rate essential, to beat the Force. Rebels, just.
Drua have shown they’re formidable at home.
The Crusaders should be far too strong for the Waratahs, but it’s a big evening for a number of players ahead of selection for the Rugby Championship.
The Hurricanes are a quality outfit. They’ll go after the Blues. They show no fear. The match shapes as a cracker.
Stephen Larkham’s Brumbies paid the ultimate price last week by losing against the Force. They’ve got to hit back and make a statement. A top two finish is crucial.
SURE THING: Tensions will continue with workload management once again to be bemoaned.
Brett
TIPS: REDS, REBELS, DRUA, CRUSADERS, BLUES, BRUMBIES
This a weird week. Games that feel easy, games that should be easy, but then warrant a second thought and become easy after a change mind, and games that should be hard but suddenly aren’t.
The unconvincing Highlanders only have the prospect of sending Aaron Smith out a winner to spur them on, and the Reds only have the prospect of continuing their rollercoaster existence to keep them going. And somehow, that’s the more logical pick.
The Rebels will be too good for the Force because they have to be, the Drua will be too good for Moana Pasifika because they just are, and the Crusaders will be too good for the Waratahs because… (competition time: the rugby editor will supply a prize for the most creative ending to this sentence).
Ratu Peni Matawalu of Fijian Drua (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Blues-Hurricanes could be literally anything. 12-10 or 45-41. One try or twelve tries. Four hundred tackles or 67 missed tackles. A Golden Point draw might even be the best-fitting outcome. I’ll take the home team because it’s quicker to type, and that’s about as scientific as it needs.
And the Brumbies just have to win. They have to. Win this week and they’ll be firmly back in the genuine contenders conversation – but lose, and they’ll be ripe for the picking.
SURE THING: By Monday, we’ll either have genuine progress on an independent commission for Super Rugby or a bin fire and two new competitions for 2024.
Geoff
TIPS: REDS, REBELS, MOANA PASIFIKA, CRUSADERS, HURRICANES, CHIEFS
Given that the Reds couldn’t win a match in New Zealand for nigh on a decade it seems a bit strange tipping them to do it twice in three weeks. But let’s face it, the Highlanders aren’t really up to much, are they?
Which is one of the reasons why the Rebels were so down after their lost opportunity last weekend. They’ll be much better this week – plus they owe the Force one.
The Drua at home against Moana Pasifika seems like a straightforward tip. But combining the old theory about sides winning the week after they lose the coach and my need for a ‘Hail Mary’ or two, I’m backing Moana Pasifika to deliver the upset.
Now that the Waratahs are in the finals, the Crusaders in Christchurch feels like a game they can afford to lose. Which leaves two huge games to finish the round, with all four teams fully invested.
There seems to be an assumption that the Hurricanes have already got fifth sewn up. I don’t think they believe that, and they’ll be going all-out to beat the Blues, and may just do it. The Brumbies will be going all-out too, but I’m not quite so confident about the Chiefs rolling over for them.
Kini Naholo of the Hurricanes celebrates with teammates after scoring a try during the round four Super Rugby Pacific match between Hurricanes and NSW Waratahs at Sky Stadium, on March 17, 2023, in Wellington, New Zealand. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
SURE THING: Fresh from spoiling Aaron Smith’s final home appearance, the Reds’ bus, en-route to Dunedin airport, will swing through the main street of Mosgiel, where thousands of locals, La Rochelle-style, will spray ticker-tape and Speights in tribute to local hero, Brad Thorn.
| Round 14 | Geoff | Digger | Harry | Brett | Christy | The Crowd |
| Overall | 55 | 61 | 51 | 58 | 57 | 57 |
| Last week | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| HIG v RED | Reds | Highlanders | Highlanders | Reds | Highlanders | |
| REB v FOR | Rebels | Rebels | Rebels | Rebels | Rebels | |
| DRU v MOA | Moana Pasifika | Drua | Drua | Drua | Drua | Announced |
| CRU v WAR | Crusaders | Crusaders | Crusaders | Crusaders | Crusaders | Friday afternoon |
| BLU v HUR | Hurricanes | Hurricanes | Blues | Blues | Hurricanes | |
| BRU v CHI | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Brumbies | Brumbies |
Get your tips in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEST.
var request = new XMLHttpRequest();
request.open('POST', '/wp-admin/admin-ajax.php', true); request.setRequestHeader('Content-Type', 'application/x-www-form-urlencoded;'); request.onload = function () { if (this.status >= 200 && this.status
The Ferret
Roar Rookie
I write this not knowing the score of the game but to me the rebels are much like the Tahs. They have the players on paper but just can’t seem to get the results. Is it the coaches? Are the high profile wallabies not as good as we think? The Force play very well but don’t have the depth. I want to see the force win and play well, but home game in Melbourne this should be a win to the home side. The force getting a win it would not surprise me. They are a better team than they are given credit for.
piru
Roar Rookie
Baffles me the reasons people have come up with to pick the Rebs in this game.
WithTheDawn
Roar Rookie
Some excellent matchups this weekend, expecting a couple of upsets I reckon. Can make a case either way for each game, which is always a good sign. Landers are sure hard to tip this year, but I’ll do it anyway for them at home. Very tempted to go the Force in the later game, but with stick with a Rebels side that has been unlucky a few times this year. A great lineup Saturday starting with the Pacific clash. Drua at home seems obvious, but something is niggling me about Moana. I’ll stick with Fiji, but couldn’t be totally shocked for the upset here. A deleted Saders will take care of the Tahs. Was tempted to stick with the easy option of the Blues, but BB being out is enough to swing the game back to the Canes, with some motivated and rested ABs back. Hopefully a great contest after a few like that were letdowns last week. The final game is another really tough one. Chiefs have been off their game the last couple of weeks, but I’ll back them to bounce back here with a statement win in Canberra. All good games and for a couple of those we have the horrible top 8 finals system to thank…
Rugby101
Roar Guru
Which Reds team will turn up? If they're leading at halftime I think they'll take it. Rebels, at home and with Gordon back, against the Force without its 2 best Props. Rebels will need it more. Will "Coach leaving" give enough boost to Moana Pacifica? Don't think enough, especially against the Drua at home. Hard to see the Waratahs taking the Crusaders away. Hurricanes - Blues tough to pick. Blues because they're at home??? Chiefs to hold out against the Brumbies in a close one.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Yep Ken, fighting words indeed. Chook and I have had a standing lunch wager for the past …. ??? years between the Blues and the Tahs. If I am able to stir him up at anytime, I will :laughing: :silly:
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
Enjoyed that...
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Annoyed with myself with last week's tips. Picked 6 from 6, then messed up filling out the "ticket". Anyway onto this week, which could may have many a banana skin and could ruin many a dream of winning the Roar Tipping contest. - The Highlanders look like gold but play like pyrite. The Reds look like a punch drunk boxer and play accordingly, but occasionally land an uppercut. At first I thought "No P.Williams so Reds in with a chance" but Highlanders scrum and LO should win them the biscuits. Penguins by 5+. - Should we state here and now that THIS is the match of the round. The Burn rabbles vs the Forceful boys from the Indian Ocean. Some good match-ups here, both back rows are speedy and love pinching a ruck and of course the battle of the 5/8ths will have Eddie Jones agog and switching off that silly game at Twickers. Force props are filling out Perth hospital wards, so Rebels should win this easily. - The Drua have got F.Lomani back to call the shots and should be far too good for the Moana Pasifika. You have to feel for the Moana franchise, the last thing they (and Super Rugby) need is getting their best player (Levi Aumua) pinched by a heavyweight franchise. It really brings the purpose of the Drua and MP participating in SRP into question. Can't blame Aumua though, he will get good coin and perhaps end up in the AB squad. (like they are so hard pressed for centres!!!) :unhappy: - Mutters softly so no-one can hear; "the Borg should take this by 10+". No Large-Sized Barrett nor Superboy W.Jordan but S.Whitelock returns to the fray. Main interest will be on Big LeicesterF and Marky Mark running (and defending) at each other. Crusaders are so confident that only 6 reserves are listed. :shocked: - I'll earn RT's wrath and Digger's BFF by picking the Hurricanes to even the ledger over the Blue boys. J.Barrett opposing Big B.Heem could cause an earthquake, loads of beef there. Both teams look strong, Blues missing the naughty D.Papali'i and BBBBBBBB is MIA although I see Harry has the Plum job there. :stoked: - Chiefs "resting" D.MacKenzie at fb? I bet S.Stevenson is happy! Another clash of the back rows to salivate over but I see the Chief's backline as too smart, too fast and too big and their reserve squad has some quality cattle in it. Chiefs by 14+ to make a statement. In short: Highlanders, Rebels, Fijian Drua, Crusaders (shhhhhhhhhhh), Hurricanes and Chiefs. Sure Thing. I see the above mentioned P.Williams is linesman for the match in Melbourne. From my viewpoint ball boy is more his forte. Hopefully his next refereeing gig is the local derby at Milparinka, just north of Broken Hill. The fine weather and sunshine may help heal his damaged eye. :laughing:
The Ferret
Roar Rookie
Rebels are a far better team on paper. I think the force are on a better track as a team because Cron seems to know what he is doing. Either Foote cant get his "star studded" to fire or maybe there are some "stars" at the Rebels are not the stars we think they are.
Ankle-tapped Waterboy
Roar Rookie
There is much to think on and ponder here. I cannot recall, and nor can I imagine, a ticker-tape parade in Mosgiel, a town whose main street makes the place seem smaller than it really is.
Carlin
Roar Rookie
Aaron Smith playing his last home game for the Highlanders means the Highlanders win. I have this feeling they step up this week. The Rebels vs Force game was a hard one to pick. The Rebels get so close and then blow winnable games. The Force are a plucky opposition but are better in Perth. Rebels in a close one. Drua in Fiji will be too strong but I really hope this game delivers and shows why it is important to have both teams in this competition. The Crusaders are a business end team and are at home. They win by 15-20 at least. Blues vs Hurricanes is all set up to be a good decent derby. I liked what I saw from the Blues last week and I think at home will be too strong. Even though the Chiefs are resting a couple of players, their squad depth is good. The Brumbies at home are no pushovers but the Chiefs have more firepower which should be enough to get the win.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
You raise a very good point, Kai; happy to explain. The panel has to submit tips on Wednesday, for the article to be up on a Thursday morning, in order to allow enough time for people to read it, mull things over and so on, to get their own tips in before 5pm Friday. If we waited until after all the teams were announced, 1. it would be a damn sight easier for us, but 2. there wouldn't be much point to running the article on Friday morning, it would be too late
Geoff Parkes
Expert
I hear all your good sense mate, but... you gotta love a good dead cat bounce!
TJ-Go Force!
Roar Rookie
Rebels have been awful. Foote is way out of his depth.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Oh, I try, and I’m sure I test them :silly:
Hunters
Roar Rookie
Well it’s easier to follow perennial performers. And following the crusaders doesn’t make them bad people, in and of itself. I too have met a few who seemed like normal decent people. Makes it harder to dislike them and treat them like the enemy. The key is effort.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Hunters, I don’t hold high hope. I’ve picked the Saders to top the Tahs. (Amazingly I have a few friends here who support the Saders - Pinetree, Mad Kiwi, and Paulo) Such nice people too. I wonder what spells they conjure up in Christchurch to entice good people to the dark side?. :silly:
Chivas
Roar Rookie
And Reds won't win this week in the House of Aaron. I think as much as a shambles as the Highlanders are in, I am not sure where the Reds are stronger... maybe 2, 8 whereas arguably the Highlanders have them at 1,5,6,9,13,15.. the rest is even Chiefs need to win to usurp dominance on this which is not as important as the Brumbies fighting to prove to themselves they are contenders. Hopefully the Chiefs throw the kitchen sink and all the crockery at them this week, breaking the Brumbies and putting an end to their foolish thinking that they are good enough. A game which Brums need to win but won't. To be honest my head is leaning Brumbies, heart will not consider it though. Tahs likewise need to win, Crusaders need to get some momentum. At home be tough for the Tahs... they will need to pull something special out of the bag. Heart says Force... I so want the Force to sneak into the top 8 and prove once and for all that they are the real deal and put the Rebs to bed leaving them to talk about how good they will be next season.
Dusty10
Roar Rookie
There's only one Harry mate, and I certainly don't have aspirations to become a writer! At least not this kind. Sorry about your feelings, too. ????
Hunters
Roar Rookie
You've taken poetic license too far. Harry's not looking over his shoulder. :stoked: (And you've just our feelings. :crying:)
Hunters
Roar Rookie
Won't be a walkover. The Waratahs will be chasing after the crusaders like a kiwi shepherd chasing, sorry, minding his sheep. So could be close to the end. May not get the win but at least the Waratahs have played more like winners recently.