No team has more heavily spruiked in the off-season than Essendon despite the club not having won a final for 5302 days (@EFCFinals is a wonderful Twitter account for those who don’t follow the Bombers).
Much was expected of the Dons last year too, but they opened the season with a horrible two months of football to be sitting 15th on the ladder with only two wins. Things were that bad – they were even behind Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs.
But after a Round 8 loss to Carlton that caused heads to roll, the Bombers turned things around. From Round 9 onwards Essendon won ten games and lost only four – those four losses being to Richmond (twice), Collingwood and Hawthorn, all sides that finished in the top four.
If a ladder was compiled just for Round 9 to Round 23, the Dons would have been sitting in the top four with those three teams. It’s reasonable to assume off the back of that final two-thirds of the season that they will improve.
Essendon Best 22
B: Martin Gleeson, Michael Hurley, Connor McKenna
HB: Aaron Francis, Cale Hooker, Adam Saad
C: David Zaharakis, Dylan Shiel, Andrew McGrath
HF: Devon Smith, Joe Daniher, Orazio Fantasia
F: Mark Baguley, Jake Stringer, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
Foll: Tom Bellchambers, Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett
Int: Mitch Brown, David Myers, Kyle Langford, Darcy Parish
Em: Shaun McKernan, Patrick Ambrose, Matt Guelfi
Dylan Shiel has been acclaimed as a big-name signing that can boost the Essendon midfield, adding some more class alongside Zach Merrett and offering some more support for him too.
Neither player could find a spot in The Roar AFL top 50 when five writers voted; while both have the potential to be A-graders, they are not quite there yet.
Shiel is explosive from stoppages, has a beautiful side-step and can deliver the ball with laser precision. It’s easy to get seduced by players who look so good aesthetically, but he’s never proven himself a matchwinner or game-shaper. At GWS he also had others to do the heavy lifting, so how will his body hold up if he is targeted as the number-one man at Essendon?
Merrett was knocked out in Round 1 last year and subsequently struggled with a hard tag in a few matches, but he was back to his best by the end of the year, averaging 31.5 disposals per game after the mid-season bye. His season reflected that of his team, and the knock on him is how much his touches hurt the opposition, especially given how many he gets around halfback.
Even with Shiel and Merrett, the midfield still looks Essendon’s weakest area.
Andrew McGrath is another eye-catching Bomber with a burst of pace and looks ready to break out this season after two consistent years, but the little concern is that his 2018 was almost identical to the year before. Is he one of those types who is so ready-made as a draftee that he doesn’t have huge upside?
Andrew McGrath. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
David Zaharakis, the most experienced on the list, is a nice outside player but not much more than that. Many thought Dyson Heppell was going to be a gun, but he has become just a good ordinary player.
All five players mentioned so far are better outside than inside the contest, which leaves the midfield lacking balance.
Devon Smith provided a lot of grunt and pressure in his first year at the club, winning the best and fairest, but he’s still more of a natural ball-gatherer than a ball-winner at the coalface. David Myers is probably Essendon’s best clearance specialist, but he struggles with injury and is hardly earth-shattering. Kyle Langford is a good size and is hoped to take on more inside responsibility too.
The Bombers look well balanced in defence, with a nice mixture of marking power and pace.
After almost a decade it appears Essendon has finally worked out that Michael Hurley and Cale Hooker can form the best one-two key defensive punch in the competition. It’s been a national disgrace that it has taken them so long, with both alternating between playing forward for much of their careers.
Hooker is an outstanding aerialist, Hurley is tough to beat one-on-one and they both love to launch counter-attacks from defensive 50. Aaron Francis has played only ten games at AFL level but looks well suited to the intercepting role to add even more firepower to that area – he was pick six in the 2015 national draft and took ten contested marks in the final two matches last year.
Adam Saad and Connor McKenna are two of the quickest players in the AFL and provide blitzkrieg run from the backline. Martin Gleeson should be welcomed back in a lock-down role, but he also backs himself to win his own ball. Patrick Ambrose can play tall or small and is often used as a backup when injuries strike.
Up forward, Joe Daniher returns, a player most people thought would launch into superstar status in 2018. He didn’t look right from the first round and eventually succumbed to a groin injury that clearly hampered him when he did play.
The irony was that Essendon played their best football with Daniher out of the side, and they effectively shared the goal-kicking spoils when winning their games – the Dons had eight players kick between 15 and 30 goals. The trick will now be to continue spreading the load while making the most of Daniher’s talent.
Jake Stringer was the boom recruit going into last season and did lead Essendon’s goal-kicking in the end despite John Worsfold trying to turn him into a midfielder. The fact is that he’s a power forward. He kicked three or more goals seven times last year but was goalless the same amount. He needs to be settled forward, where he can do the most damage.
Jake Stringer. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti is the excitement machine up forward, to borrow a cliche, but he does have that uniquely Indigenous knack for being able to shape a match with only a few touches. Mark Baguley has reinvented himself as a pressure forward after years as a back pocket and is applying the lessons learnt from standing many crafty forwards.
A fully fit Orazio Fantasia will be a weapon for the Dons, and it was no coincidence that Essendon had a 9-4 record when he was in the side last year. He adds even more speed to the forward line, kicks goals, sets them up and worries the opposition.
There are few easy openings to a season, but the Bombers don’t have the hardest five weeks to begin – matches against St Kilda, Brisbane (in Melbourne) and North Melbourne give them an opportunity, with fixtures against GWS and Melbourne mixed in to provide sterner tests.
Essendon appear well balanced up forward and down back with a midfield that does have some depth to it if everyone stays fit, but against the best sides they’ll be looking to break even in that part of the ground and win their games from defence and attack.
The Bombers have landed some big names in the last two years and are hoping for full seasons from big names like Daniher and Fantasia. Will it lead to a big rise up the ladder?
Prediction: 6th
Tommo
Roar Rookie
Big dons fan, but I'm worried. Forward line sometimes lacks bite - typically due to poor inside 50 entries backline relied on players leaving men to intercept and run-off, 6-6-6 could definitely expose this flair as a weakness
Benny G
Roar Rookie
When putting together my best Bombers 22, I actually struggled to fit Heppell into the midfield. Yes, he racks up possessions, but McGrath, Guelfi, Stringer, Shiel, Smith and Merrett all seem to use the ball better and break the game open more. I reckon he is best suited to a forward flank, where he can be a really dependable mark, kick at goal and ball winner. Alternatively, put him on a back flank where he can win the ball, intercept and rebound.
scoots
Roar Rookie
As good as Brown has been recently, I'd have Smack in the best 22 in place of him.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Ha, I had nothing to do with that.
Thatsashame
Roar Rookie
About right Cam I think. If they gel like they did the last half of last year and adding daniher and Fantasia then they make finals and could win a couple. If not, could miss again. 1 thing on the midfield depth. On paper it looks thin but stats suggest it goes alright. Essendon clearance numbers were good in the 2nd half, smashing more fancied midfield like Geelong, didnt think they finish 16th for clearances? If Langford keeps progressing then with Myers and heppel and Shiel at times, that's enough insiders. I think their outsiders are just about the best going around. Going to be a fascinating year watching the bombers.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Depth still wins games if you have the talent on top. Tight games are often decided by which team gets the most from players 17-22. People will question whether or not the Bombers’ best mids are good enough to matter. I think they are, but I’m clearly biased. The Dogs don’t lose because of their midfield though.
Birdman
Roar Rookie
Good team on paper but football isnt played on paper. Will miss finals....just
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
You'd hope he'd get those sort of figures being where the ball is after all. He might even have the wood over Luke Shuey in most of his stats,with 2014 as a starting point in mind.He's a good solid AFL midfielder. Can he win games for the Bombers?
IAP
Guest
Whether they've got 2 second tier midfielders or 10 of them they're still second tier and won't win you games. Look at the Dogs; they've got a whole list full of them and they'll be lucky to beat Gold Coast this year.
IAP
Guest
They like to think that every WA born player will come home, so I assumed that it would be the same thing the opposite way. It's probably more likely that Vic born players in SA would come home because, let's face it, no-one who's lived anywhere else would choose to live in Adelaide.
Maximus Insight
Guest
Like I said the other day.... In AFL pundit land Sydney to slide, Bombers to rise...it must be March
JamesH
Roar Guru
If you look at Essendon's top 3 mids - Heppell, Merrett and Shiel - then they probably don't have the outright star power of other sides. But their strength is the depth they've built there. The 4-9 bracket reads: Smith Zaharakis McGrath Myers Parish Langford That's a very deep second tier of midfielders compared to most clubs, to the point where one or two deserving players are going to miss out each week. It's an area where I think the Bombers can wear down their opponents as matches progress.
TomC
Roar Guru
Seriously, was I drunk when I wrote this? I got more words wrong than right!
JamesH
Roar Guru
Fair enough - we'll probably have a fair idea either way in 6 months' time! I forgo to add - McGrath's 2018 is hard to compare to his 2017, for the simple fact that he went from being almost a pure small defender (2017) to rotating through the middle a lot (2018). It was a pretty steep learning curve for a kid who hadn't played much midfield time. I'm pretty excited to see how he goes playing predominantly as a midfielder.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Sometimes I don't get the tone quite right in aligning the write-up with the finishing position. I like your paragraph about the odd weaknesses of the midfield - they're all decent players, but nothing that especially defines them. McGrath could be the one that separates himself, given his pace and class, and I think Merrett and Shiel have the same traits, so perhaps as a collective they will rise. I think the other key phrase there is "on paper" and I agree with you. They looked pretty ordinary in the JLT, but the problem with that is that the pre-season form can only be known as true or false down the track.
Rissole
Roar Rookie
Maybe at No.49 in place of a certain Richmond player.....
Rissole
Roar Rookie
No good as a forward and solid enough for a lock-down defender (he is deceptively quick). He has no attacking game from defence though so he is quite limited.
Cameron Rose
Expert
It is funny how it happen sometimes though. Melbourne looked better without Hogan, and Essendon started winning once there was no Daniher. Once Daniher gets his confidence up and assuming he is 100% fit, I think we'll see him be a star once again. Hurley was stiff, no doubt. We could have easily had him in, and probably should have.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I'm not a big Ambrose fan myself, but I think he's versatile to give options when someone goes down. He's certainly no forward, which is where he started.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I think the side as I’ve named it above is balanced, and shouldn’t be too tall. Playing Stringer as a permanent forward will help this, given he is a power forward in a smaller package. But I agree, putting him in the middle for five minutes here and there is a good idea.