Richmond’s charge towards back-to-back premierships, seen as almost a foregone conclusion by some due to the Tigers’ overall dominance in 2018, came to an abrupt and gruesome end against Collingwood on preliminary final weekend last year.
In 20 minutes of play from late in the first quarter until midway through the second, the Pies piled on six unanswered goals and led the game by 42 points. They would extend that margin to 53 later in the term, as a result of kicking 8.3 to 0.2 in a stunning display of almost perfect football.
Richmond finished on top of the ladder, two games and 15per cent clear of second-placed West Coast, but it all came crumbling down at the most inopportune time.
Can the Tigers climb the mountain again?
Richmond’s best 22
B: Nick Vlastuin, David Astbury, Dylan Grimes
HB: Jayden Short, Alex Rance, Bachar Houli
C: Shane Edwards, Dustin Martin, Dion Prestia
HF: Josh Caddy, Jack Riewoldt, Jack Higgins
F: Daniel Rioli, Tom Lynch, Dan Butler
Foll: Toby Nankervis, Trent Cotchin, Kane Lambert
Int: Jack Graham, Shaun Grigg, Jason Castagna, Nathan Broad
Em: Kamdyn McIntosh, Brandon Ellis, Maverick Weller
Richmond landed the biggest fish of the AFL trade and free agency period, luring Tom Lynch from the Gold Coast in a plan that was a minimum of 12 months in the planning according to industry insiders, and more likely closer to two years.
Lynch came over with a PCL injury and had a delayed start to his pre-season due to surgery – he’s touch-and-go for Round 1, and won’t be at full fitness if he does play.
With the addition of Lynch, the dynamic of the Richmond forward-line changes, and how well they gel as a unit will be a story to follow through the year.
Jack Riewoldt has been the sole key target for the last two years, and will enjoy some relief from opposition defenders with another gun alongside him. Both he and Lynch are completely comfortable playing deep from the square or pushing upfield as a lead-up target, so they should complement each other well.
Between 2014-17, Lynch kicked between 43 and 66 goals per season, so Tigers fans will be hoping for returns along those lines, without impacting the scoring of three-time Coleman medalist Riewoldt.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Josh Caddy will miss the first month or so with an ankle injury and will have to deal with a role change upon his return. After playing as a second marking target alongside Riewoldt last year and kicking 46 goals, he may now be a third marking option or spend more time in the middle.
Richmond will still have a mosquito fleet at the foot of the tall forwards, led by Daniel Rioli and featuring the likes of Dan Butler, Jason Castanga and ex-Saint Mav Weller, with Shai Bolton and Liam Baker in reserve.
Jack Higgins will be considered part of this group by most, and while he certainly has tricks inside 50 (as evidenced by his goal of the year last season) he is just as likely to be part of the midfield and high-half forward rotation with Kane Lambert. For a first-year player to break into the side of the reigning premiers and then hold his spot for the last 20 games, as Higgins did, speaks to his quality.
Lambert is one of the hardest runners in the game and has finished top three in the best and fairest two years in a row in a high-quality team. Dion Prestia only played 13 matches in 2018 and is an important player – he was probably the Tigers’ second best in the 2017 finals, behind only Dustin Martin.
(L-R) Dylan Grimes, Dustin Martin, Sean Griggs, Dion Prestia and Jacob Townsend of the Tigers (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Coming off his first full pre-season at Richmond is a positive that makes the team more dangerous.
Martin didn’t reach the heights of 2017 last year, but was still named All Australian after a fine season. Shane Edwards joined him that AA side, a reward for a player that has one of the quickest minds and some of the fastest hands in the business.
Trent Cotchin’s career has gone from Brownlow medal winning silky mover to premiership captain battering ram – quite the evolution. Jack Graham is the number one pressure player at the Tigers, which complements the rest of the midfield outfit, but he will be looking to up his possession rate and have more impact offensively in this third year.
Shaun Grigg and Kamdyn McIntosh have been the wingmen in recent times – Grigg starts the season injured and unlikely to fulfil his secondary duties as relief ruck when he comes back. Pressure may be on his spot, but his smarts should see him through.
McIntosh is a more defensive outside player, good at filling holes and being a physical presence.
Toby Nankervis will once again lead the ruck division, but the big question is where his support will come from given a couple of rule changes are seen to signal the death knell for the undersized second ruck.
Ivan Soldo is the next in line ruckman at the Tigers, but it’s hard to play two lumbering types in the same team. Noah Balta is an athletic all-purpose tall that may get a run, but he has a long way to go in order to be a proper AFL player.
The Richmond backline has been an area of stability in the last two seasons.
Alex Rance has been an All Australian defender five years in a row, and continues to be a two-in-one player – he is responsible for the majority of one-on-one match-ups in the Tigers’ defensive 50, but his reputation among the football public is of someone that never plays on a man; that’s how good his reading of the play and defensive skills are.
David Astbury and Dylan Grimes are fellow bedrocks on the last line of defence with Rance. Astbury often takes the opponent’s best tall forward and Grimes is one of the best lock-down players in the game. Between these three players, they have only missed three matches combined across the last two seasons.
Jayden Short has quietly become one of the best rebounders in the league with his penetrating right boot and is known to sneak down for an important goal. Nick Vlastuin is an exceptional aerial judge, often chopping off opposition forays. Bachar Houli provides experience and run. Nathan Broad is another negating type that can play tall and small.
(Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)
Richmond lost a lot of depth players in the off-season, squeezed out as is often the case with successful teams. Reece Conca, Sam Lloyd, Anthony Miles, Corey Ellis and Tyson Stengle were all traded to other clubs, but it’s notable that none of these were considered first 18 players. Only Conca was a first-choice member of the side.
What these departures do is put pressure on the 2016-18 draftees. Will they be better than the above names when injuries strike and replacements are needed? Will the new draft crop overtake them?
Much has been made of the fact Richmond may be most disadvantaged by 6-6-6 given they played a man behind the ball more than any other side last year. The Tigers forewent clearances to win the ball back and create drive from behind. This is a concern.
Most of the rule changes have been brought in to promote fast and flowing football, but this was Richmond’s competitive advantage already. Forward momentum was their game, so this may give an opportunity for other teams to catch-up.
The Tigers also have to carry the mental baggage of having nothing to prove until they get to the preliminary final, and that likely involves winning 15-16 matches in the home-and-away plus at least one final. It’s no easy task to sustain football at that level year after year.
West Coast and Collingwood beat Richmond handsomely in 2018, and did it in different ways, which others are sure to learn from. The Eagles used ball control and piercing field kicking to dismantle the Tigers, while the Pies simply beat them at their own game.
Richmond are going to be a good team again, and surely finalists. But a top-four spot is no lay down misere.
Prediction: 5th
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Surprised to see the Tigers down here on Cam's ladder. I have them top and premiers in 2019. The other surprise is the Crows top three. I see them making the eight on a good draw but not contending. The Tigers have no inherent weakness in any line and I feel some people are reading too much into one bad game against the Pies in the prelim. Don't forget they came back from 53 points down to 21 in the last qtr and only a wonky lucky snap from Adam Treloar steadied the ship. They also won't leave the hole for the Pies to kick to in front of Cox next time.
RT
Roar Rookie
I don't think Lynch will upset the cohesion, but I do think Richmond will take a while to settle on their best side, due both to the addition of Lynch and a few other injuries that seem to be about at the start of the season. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they don't make top 4 due to this, but I'd still have them above Melbourne. Richmond will have a number of new or fringe players getting a game early on and it will be interesting to see if any manage to stay in the team and push others out as other players return from injury. Whether it is Weller (named above as an emergency) or others, at least a couple could find their way in permanently.
Slane
Guest
I too am a fan of the reverse jinx. Richmond for the spoon. Put some money on it
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
'Menadue will never make it.' My thoughts exactly! Should not be on the list little own get playing minutes. What's up, Dimma?
Billbob
Roar Rookie
Hairy fat man it is gonna work n the gootu eorld dont want a hall of famer n a 6'7 beast too work
Billbob
Roar Rookie
Tell me cam exactly how lynch disrupte the richmond line up please???
TomC
Roar Guru
I'll be interested to read Cam's writeup of Melbourne, because I don't entirely see the logic in putting the Demons ahead of the Tigers. I think Richmond's winning streak at the MCG was something like 22 games up until that surprising loss to Collingwood in the prelim. Win 11 of their 13 games at that venue this year, win four of their five away games against the Bulldogs, Saints, Suns, Power and Dockers, and that's Cam's mark of 15 games right there. Possibly enough for a top four spot on its own. And then there's that helpful run of 7 games at home leading into the finals, where even without making the top two they're a good chance never to have to set foot in another postcode. It's a pretty good way to tune up for a season decider at the same venue. Cam covers the possibility that the rule changes might blunt the Tigers existing strengths, which I guess in turn might limit their dominance at home. But my suspicion is that the new rules will just make it harder for teams to defend against that fast, central ball movement. Tom Lynch's recruitment increases their potency at the pointy end by a few degrees. They're probably not starting the season in perfect shape, so it might take them a little while to get going, but if they get their best team on the park they'll finish the year strongly. I'd have them as premiership favourites along with the Eagles.
Professor X
Guest
What's happening with Naish?
Jest
Roar Rookie
I'm curious how the addition of Lynch will affect their secondary ruck. Surely with both him and Reiwoldt in the forward line they can't carry another big body forward and keep the same pressure. Does this mean Lynch does some ruck work or do they stick with Grigg. The new rules the Ruck being able to take the ball without it being prior opportunity and the 6-6-6 opening up the center bounce plays to a proper rucks advantage. I don't think it'll be enough to force a change, but I can see them losing a close game or two because of this weakness.
Paul D
Roar Guru
So you've got Eagles, Pies, Demons and the Crows ahead of Richmond? I can get behind 3 of those, but you are underselling it if you think you're gonna finish behind a team you whomped in a grand final not two years ago and have demonstrated all the residual strength and staying power of fairy floss in a blast furnace. Unless you think the new rules are going to play havoc given Richmond never played 6-6-6 and don't have much in the ruck department. Maybe you're right. If Lynch stays fit he will be a huge asset, he is absolutely lethal up to 50m from goal and is one of the best kicks of a footy I can remember seeing from set shots. And he will get plenty of opportunities.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Fair commentary Gordon. Personally I think WC and Collingwood showed they were better both against Richmond and over the season, so they are automatically ahead given I see no reason why both won't improve again.
Cameron Rose
Expert
It might, but I think it's a punt worth taking for a player of his quality. Even with the addition of Lynch, it's likely the Tigers will still be shorter than most teams.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Haha, I can only go with what I think Dingo.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yeah, I don't think Richmond are a top four lock by any stretch. It's not as simple as "finished top + Lynch". I don't agree on Butler, I think he's safe. And I do think the chemistry between he, Castanga and Rioli is underrated and a required element in our forward half pressure game. Menadue will never make it. I've got time for Markov, but this is a bit of a crunch year for him. Bolton and Balta are still 12-24 months away in my eyes.
Gordon P Smith
Roar Guru
Cameron, I have to say – when I saw you’d posted your Richmond article, I quickly scanned the page to find the other two or three that had gone up without my noticing. Fifth strikes me as unlikely, although you put together a reasonable argument for same. West Coast’s win in R9 was at Optus and seemed at the time to be a case of a road team stretched thin against a surging home team trying to knock off the defending champs. If anything, the situation will be at least partially reversed this season. Adelaide’s game in R2 was similar in that it was revenge for the previous GF and played at home before the injuries hit. GWS played one of their best games and squeezed out a two-point win; Port simply won the fluke upset that every team will give up in a 22-game season. The loss to the Pies in the prelim would be the only 2018 loss of concern for a Tiger fan (which I’m not, particularly). Besides the Tigers laying a clunker at the least opportune time, the Cox domination up front would be the element that might be reproducible for a few other teams. Yet I’d be hard pressed to argue for very many teams that have the personnel to do that against this defense for a game. If the Tigers were to suffer a run of injuries a la Crows/Giants this season, sure – fifth or worse comes into play without depth to lean on. But I didn’t see any signs in the (admittedly exhibition) JLT games that adapting to the 6-6-6 was going to do any more harm to them than it will for any team when they’re hoping to pack the back line in defense; their ability to come back from a deficit is obviously intact (see: Hawks comma Hawthorn). The only thing that makes fifth defensible is the fact that the top thirteen teams may very well span a total of 6-8 wins or losses, with a gap back to the single digit winners a la 2018, and a couple of fluke losses might cost a team four places. I will be VERY surprised if they miss top four with a healthy top of the lineup.
Raimond
Roar Guru
There’s a chance that Lynch might upset their cohesion. The Tigers played best with the plan of kicking it to Jack, and letting the small balls clean up the crumbs.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
I love Cameron Rose down playing his Tigers... I thought the Tiger Army would be taking it on from the front, not with the underdog tag.
Milo
Roar Rookie
Finally someone who agrees that the Tiges arent a lock for top 4 and while they should make finals there are no guarantees. Thanks for the read Cameron. For mine it still revolves around Martin and Cotchin. Dusty had possibly the best footy season ever by an individual (to quote Barney Matthews) in 2017 and Cotch lifted his game to a different level as you said. 2018 wasnt a great season for either but the club hung on to top spot although slipping in form towards the end of the season. Hardwick admitted recently theyd peaked too soon so something to look at this year. Practice games mean very little in the schemes of things, but you just got a sense that maybe Cotchin is back. Dusty has started out more determined and seems to be winning the ball, and while both are good early signs its a long way to go. Overall tho, I think we've got to bring in a few more faces. The team youve picked is still only three players from the GF team. From your team Id leave out Houli, Grigg, Castagna & Ellis. Butler is borderline if Bolton can come on this year. In Markov, Menadue, Miller and probably Balta. While agree he's got a ways to go, the days of just one ruckman are over and Lynch cant be relied upon to step up consistently. Soldo is not the longer term answer (although he plays if Nank is out) and Coleman-Jones maybe a season away. From the 23-25 Id have Moore before McIntosh and probably Collier-Dawkins before Weller. One perceived weakness of this team is that the experience level and perceived hardness isnt as strong, but there is potentially more skill and pace which may suit a game that opens up a fraction more this year.