After a stunning 2023 that legitimised the coaching of Kevin Walters and brought serious credibility back to the Brisbane Broncos, history says the team should be even better positioned to climb NRL’s Everest this season.
It is an old adage that “You have to lose one to win one” and losing one in the manner the Broncos did in the 2023 decider should play right into the hands of the people charged with getting the players in the right frame of mind to exorcise the demons.
To lose a grand final by two points after seemingly having had the game in hand after 56 minutes and subsequently conceding 18 unanswered points, is all the psychological experts will need to motivate a squad that gelled into something quite attackingly special under Walters during the Broncos’ best season in years.
Yet, considering the players that have left the club and the immense challenge of being repeat premiership contenders, something the Panthers are excelling at, can Brisbane be automatically expected to reproduce what they did in 2023 and thus navigate their way deep into the finals come September?
I would suggest not.
Many a great NSWRL/ARL/NRL team has suffered a painful defeat before responding with vengeance to earn glory in the years that immediately followed.
As far back as 1979, a young Canterbury team was outclassed by St George, before responding in 1980 with a premiership win over the Roosters.
The 1987 Canberra Raiders lost on the final day against the Sea Eagles, and then proceeded to dominate the competition in 1989 and 1990 with two glorious premierships.
The Raiders won their first title just seven years after entering the competition. (Photo by Getty Images)
When the Raiders beat the Panthers in 1990, the mountain men were determined to avenge the loss and did so in 1991; instigating a party for the ages that celebrated Penrith’s first ever premiership.
The Bulldogs did the same again in 1995, returning after an embarrassing loss in 1994 to the Raiders and the 1995 runners-up Manly-Warringah found the motivation to return a year later and claim the title against the Dragons in a Super League-affected and controversial match.
Despite a premiership in 1999, Melbourne Storm’s modern run of success actually began after a loss to the Broncos in 2006 (as well as a heck of a lot of cheating), with titles won in 2007 and 2009 both coming off the back of losses in the decider a year earlier.
Manly’s 2008 title is wedged in between and followed a loss in 2007 to the crooked Storm.
Melbourne Storm has won plenty of premierships, not all of them legitimately. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
It seems the best motivation to win a premiership is a loss in the recent past, with the psychological galvanising of a group achieved under the weight of regret and a determination to come back and do better.
Even the modern Panthers had to suffer a narrow loss to Melbourne in 2020 before launching into a three-peat for the ages that will rank them as one of the best teams in the history of the modern game.
But are the Broncos headed down the same path?
The loss of one Dally M centre of the year in the form of Herbie Farnworth is an enormous blow for the team. The Dolphins will benefit immensely from his presence and Wayne Bennett could well have one of the buys of the season at his disposal.
Should Selwyn Cobbo steps into the centre role vacated by Farnworth, the pressure on him will be immense after the Englishman produced an influential season in Brisbane colours; scoring 15 tries and testing every opposition centre sent out to nullify his impact.
Selwyn Cobbo scores for the PM’s XIII (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Bennett has also poached 24-year-old international Thomas Flegler from Brisbane, the kind of player you want with you in the trenches and one integral to the Broncos run to the grand final last season.
Man mountain Keenan Palasia has left for the Gold Coast and Kurt Capewell heads to his fourth NRL club at the Warriors, after forging a reputation as one of the most reliable and experienced players at the Broncos, despite being more of a role player than a superstar.
In place of the four big fish that have departed, former Rooster Fletcher Baker is the most significant signing Walters has made; relying heavily on the new breed of youngsters he will require when injury and representative duty demand their selection in the starting 17.
Most are unlikely to feature should the squad stay healthy and even though some Brisbane fans will feel that the time is ripe for a premiership should the team recover mentally from the tragedy of 2023, the weight of responsibility on Payne Haas and Adam Reynolds could be too much without key members of the support crew from last season.
The big question is whether the losses are simply too much to overcome, or whether Walters has managed the squad expertly enough to have his team contending again in 2024.
Cattle-wise it appears not. But the Broncos did surprise most last year. Is it foolish to suggest they can’t do so again?
McTavish
Roar Rookie
Broncos won their first 6 without losing one :silly:
Panthers
Roar Rookie
I think Brisbane are the top team to start the 2024 season, by a long way. Lost a few players, big deal! They always have the Brisbane competition & most of Queensland to cherry pick players from . That they do well & who up there doesn’t want to play for the biggest club, the richest club , with the most backing? The only thing hanging over them is Reynolds & if he goes down. I hear they have a top up & coming half ( who’s a bit young yet ) & maybe Mam could lead them around the park anyway ? Other than that, they have Kurt Falls. When you look at their squad compared to other clubs. There’s no real comparison. Penrith’s squad has been picked apart & they don’t really buy any big names at all. Some other clubs may be able to make the GF? Yet none of them will be anywhere near Brisbane talent wise.
Panthers
Roar Rookie
Penrith came from the bottom of the table a year or two earlier, to win it in 2003.
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
Fair enough. I thought they put the cue in the rack well before that though. Or maybe it was just one bloke playing the best 30 minutes of footy he'll ever play.
London Panther
Roar Rookie
Weren’t they cheating the (newly implemented) salary cap at that stage. Stuart (rightly) points out that the Storm had their titles stripped, but there have been others who have rorted who didn’t receive the same vitriol.
Succhi
Roar Rookie
Yes I think the Broncos might struggle a bit this year. There is not a lot of experience in the forwards and Capewell is a bigger loss than most think. At a guess, probably 6 players in SOO will test their depth and durability.
Good Grief
Roar Rookie
Have a peek at that photo of the victorious Raiders greats above: Walters, Stuart, Meninga, Clyde, Mullens and Daley… almost half of a run on Kangaroos team all in the same club side. Great team in a brilliant era.
rakshop
Roar Rookie
The problem the Broncos have is what happens if Carrigan or Haas go down with injury? Even for a few rounds. If you jump onto the Broncos squad list, they have listed 15 forwards in their squad - 4 of them are hookers. If they have to replace Carrigan or Haas for long stretches this season, the depth just isnt there. They are going to be very reliant on their top 17 staying healthy. I would argue.... too reliant.
Ben Pobjie
Expert
I don’t think that old adage has ever been true anyway. Cowboys 2015, Souths 2014, Dragons 2010, Tigers 2005, Bulldogs 2004, Penrith 2003, Knights 2001 and 1997, Storm 1999, Bulldogs 1995, Broncos 1992, Bulldogs 1984…
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Never liked the "you have to lose one to win one" line. Doesn't stack up. Since 2000 the Eels lost the GF in 2001, 2009 and 2022 and never won a flag in subsequent years. The Cowboys had to wait another ten years to win one after losing in 2005. Canterbury lost in 2012 and 2014 and then fell away without a flag to show for it. The Raiders lost in 2019 and haven't looked likely since away as have Souths after losing to Penrith in 2021. On the other side of the ledger the Dogs won in 2004 after not being in a GF for 6 years while the Tigers won in 2005 after not being in a GF for 16 years when Balmain lost to the Raiders in 89.
Gray-Hand
Roar Rookie
but this one put together the squad that was 25 minutes away from a premiership in 2023. 4 minutes away from a premiership. Panthers evened the score to n the 76th minute and pulled ahead by making the conversion in the 78th minute.
GhostFacePilfer
Roar Rookie
The average age of the Broncos team running out this weekend is 24 years old. That is very young. And yet despite their youth, this team already has so much experience. One thing I think you fail to consider is how much an extra year can help such a young team improve. Mam, Cobbo and Walsh are all only 21. Payne Haas - one of the most senior players - is only 24! Reynolds, Walters and Jensen are huge outliers all being in their 30s. In the case of Capewell and Palasia, while both have been critical to the Broncos success, I think Piakura and Willison can step up to fill those voids individually. I think another year of improvement across the board from all players will help fill the rest of the losses.
Stewy76
Roar Rookie
Nico, one name you left out was Brendan Piakura... he's definitely one to watch and I think Broncos fans will not be missing Capewell when this bloke hits his straps.
mushi
Roar Guru
It’s a weird thing that came out of the old top 5 I think (where it was harder to make a gf as a weaker side) In the NRL era more have finished out if the 8 the next year than won. Using finals outcomes as a guide is pretty flawed as you’re basing everything on effectively a 1-4 games and ignoring the 24 other ones.
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
Articles like this pose two questions; do the Broncos have their recruitment & retention processes completely wrong and if the Broncos can't go all the way, who can? The answer to the first question has to be an emphatic "no". If this was the Broncos brains trust from 4 or 5 years ago, that might have been a different story, but this one put together the squad that was 25 minutes away from a premiership in 2023. They can't have completely lost their marbles that they're going to make this squad uncompetitive for a premiership a year later. As for who can go all the way, there's the usual suspects of course and as we saw in last years' GF, anything can happen. That said, do any of these teams have better claims on the premiership than the Broncos? Maybe the Panthers, but they too have lost key players to salary cap pressures, while the rest have issues that IMO could easily stop their campaigns short. As it stands before the season begins, I can't see the Broncos failing to make the GF and taking home the bikkies.
mushi
Roar Guru
So in the NRL age it's happened 3 times in almost 30 years? (Or 2 depending on your interpretation of the stripped Melbourne titles.) Worth noting more have missed the 8 the following year. I think dragons, eels, warriors and cowboys (twice) have done that. So it's better than a theoretical 1/16 but hardly a ringing endorsement that makes it a rule of thumb given there's more evidence to suggest it leads to a collapse (which is also misleading as I think is dependant on where the loser finished the year before)
Nat
Roar Guru
I feel like I would be repeating what most have already written. What I do believe is that what is coming through is better than what they have lost. What’s more is the belief they can beat anyone in front of them.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Whilst the Broncos have lost a few good players from last year in Flegler, Farnworth, Palasia & Capewell, they still have all their key players like their spine & key forwards. There are plenty of good young forwards coming through like Willison, Hetherington & Piakura, and if he can get his defence in order Cobbo will be devastating in attack in replacing Farnworth. Then you have Mam & Walsh with another year under their belts to inflict trouble on all oppositions. You have a coach who is a winner and experienced in big matches. I am a firm believer in "you have to lose one before you win a GF" and in my mind the Broncos are a huge chance to grab the 2024 title.
Arcturus
Roar Rookie
I hate that whole adage thing and consider it a load of bollocks. St George lost 4 grand finals in the 1990's, didn't finally win until 11 years after the last GF loss. Canterbury and the Warriors have lost 2 GF's, Raiders one, none of these sides have really challenged since losing. On the flip side West Tigers came out of nowhere to win in 2005, ditto Cowboys in 2014. Cronulla hadn't played in a grand final for years until 2016. Losing a Grand Final is neither a pre-requisite nor a guarantee for success, what's more important is keeping a successful playing and coaching squad together, which Brisbane have mostly done.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I recall how the Pennies lost a few experienced players the year before they started their three peat run and the claims that they would struggle because of this. They didn't and if the Broncos don't win the title it won't be because of the Cattle who start the year , it will be other factors. The main factor in the Broncos title drought has been retaining the best talent from the state and it would be ironic if they miss out again after retaining then losing too many key players. The thing is they've kept Walsh and Mam and have a really strong pack and team in general , so right now it's full steam ahead on the Broncos Bandwagon.