Collingwood were a surprise packet of the 2018 season, rocketing from a 13th-placed finish in 2017 all the way to leading a grand final with five minutes to play.
Alas, Dom Sheed kicked what has already become one of the most famous goals in VFL/AFL history, and the Magpies were denied a 16th premiership.
From a future perspective, the best thing about Collingwood’s season was the improvement they showed throughout 2018. After a 4-4 start, they only lost five more matches for the year, with three of those coming to the premiers West Coast.
The preliminary final demolition of Richmond was a case in point, given they had lost to the Tigers twice by comfortable margins earlier in the home-and-away rounds.
The Pies were both fierce and formidable in 2018. Can they sustain and then build upon that momentum to go one step further this year?
Collingwood best 22
B: T.Langdon L.Dunn B.Maynard
HB: J.Howe D.Moore J.Crisp
C: T.Phillips S.Pendlebury S.Sidebottom
HF: D.Beams B.Mihocek W.Hoskin-Elliott
F: J.De Goey M.Cox J.Elliott
Foll: B.Grundy T.Adams A.Treloar
Int: J.Thomas J.Stephenson C.Mayne T.Varcoe
Em: T.Goldsack D.Wells L.Greenwood
Collingwood lost no-one of note in the off-season, but welcomed back Dayne Beams from Brisbane and gained Jordan Roughead from the Western Bulldogs.
Dayne Beams of the Magpies (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
The Pies had arguably the best midfield in the competition anyway, and the addition of Beams strengthens it even further. Daniel Wells only played three full matches in 2018, so would add even more if he can ever get fit.
But just adding a gun midfielder or two to an already stacked part of the ground doesn’t necessarily equate to an improved team – we saw that with Geelong last year adding Gary Ablett and Tim Kelly to the likes of Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan and Menegola but still tumbling down the ladder.
There is still only one footy to go around, so the addition of Beams isn’t just going to automatically add 30 disposals and a goal or two a game on what Collingwood did last year.
When thinking about who the star of the Magpie midfield is, names like Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Adam Treloar and Beams are hard to split. But the true answer is Brodie Grundy.
Grundy is the closest thing to Dean Cox we’ve seen since the peak years of the West Coast champion, a monster in the ruck but an enormous around the ground presence, particularly in the clinches, with his running game also unequaled by anyone over 200cm in the league.
In The Roar AFL Top 50 voting earlier this month, Sidebottom (23), Pendlebury (24), Beams (26) and Treloar (30) were all ranked around the same mark, highlighting how much class the Pies have.
Sidebottom runs all day and uses it well, time continues to stand still whenever Pendlebury has the ball, Beams is the longest kick, best mark and most natural goal-kicker of the four, while Treloar is the most explosive. What a mix.
Taylor Adams is the workhorse of the midfield, which frees up his classier teammates, and Tom Phillips assumes a completely outside role running both ways.
Young Brayden Sier has a bright future as an inside specialist, and would be a starting player in almost every other side but is probably only depth in this squad. James Aish played through the finals and looked to have finally made it, but is another that will likely get squeezed out. He did play as a back pocket in the JLT Series though, so there may be a change of role for him.
Jordan de Goey led the Collingwood goal-kicking with 48 last year, often deployed as the deepest forward to give opposition defenders a few nightmares. Alex Rance was toweled up by him in the preliminary final, which is a sign of de Goey’s standing in the game already.
The easy comparison is with Dustin Martin, because it’s true. Will he push more into the midfield after bursts there last year?
Jordan De Goey (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Jamie Elliott has a lot of fans among AFL watchers, all hoping he can stay fit and get back to his best. He’s the rare marking small forward, with great instincts, a big leap and sure hands. Jaiden Stephenson won the Rising Star from the forward pocket, with his electric pace causing problems for opponents.
Will Hoskin-Elliot has fulfilled his potential at Collingwood in a way he never could at GWS, but a cleaner bill of health has helped. Mason Cox continues to narrow the gap between his best games and his worst, as well as the length of time between those events.
Brody Mihocek played an effective role as a defensive tall forward once he came into the side, and hit the scoreboard regularly. He should hold his spot, but was still kept on the rookie list rather than being elevated. Travis Varcoe has played all over the ground in his career, but continues to provide value as a forward pocket and flanker.
The Pies forward-line is an eclectic mix that worked for them in 2018, but they will have to rediscover the same chemistry this season with Elliott back in the side.
Down back, Collingwood has plenty of options too.
Roughead has been brought into play fullback while Lynden Dunn recovers from a knee injury, and also provide cover for when Darcy Moore inevitably gets injured. Moore looked extremely sharp in the JLT Series, and we know the importance of an attacking tall defender that can be a strong marking option down there.
Tom Langdon had an outstanding finals series and has fully arrived at the top level. Jeremy Howe has been a beacon of consistency as an interceptor since arriving at Collingwood. Similar to other top sides like West Coast and Richmond, the Pies backline is well stocked in regards to winning the ball back from opposition forward attacks.
Jack Crisp provides drive off halfback, Brayden Maynard has nailed down a spot as a tough back pocket, and there are the likes of Levi Greenwood and Tyson Goldsack as all-purpose options that can also play in other parts of the ground. Matt Scharenberg often commands a spot, but never gets a consistent run due to injury.
The Pies will want to be up and going early this year, given they have Geelong, Richmond and West Coast to open the season. They had a combined 1-6 record against those three sides in 2018.
Taylor Adams of the Magpies (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
They also have double up games against the Eagles, Tigers, Melbourne and Essendon, which shapes as difficult. You wouldn’t have to go far to find someone that has those teams as their top four.
Collingwood has the best midfield in the comp, an outstanding multi-faceted forwardline, a more-than-solid defence, and unsurpassed depth. They play with ferocious intensity and high pressure, and they will be burning with hunger from getting so close to the holy grail last year.
The Pies are the team to beat when September comes around.
Prediction: second
Preview series
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
Hi HFM, Have a look at Joshua Cole's article today, it is right on topic in relation to using last year's finishing position as a predictor.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
How on earth does moving the forward press back 5 or 10 metres reduce its effectiveness Tom? The wall just shifts back. 5 metres is one handpass. As for resting easy, if only I could based on one anonymous bloke's random thought, but as last year showed, a Pies fan doesn't rest easy until the siren. We are always waiting for an errant bounce, bad umpiring call, freak act to deny us. 2010's errant bounce for Milne appears as a blip on the radar.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
I am interested to see how the ground advantage in WA tilts the draw. I think that it is likely to be worth between two and four additional wins. Once in the finals, it is the sort of thing that can propel you into the GF. So, based on everything being mostly a roll of the dice, I like the Eagles to make the GF.
Piffdog
Roar Rookie
I reckon you have underplayed the influence the addition of a couple key defenders can have (Moore finally fit and hopefully Roughead). Plenty of people ignore the injury run owing the fact they made it to the finals, but does anyone remember Madgen, Murphy, Oxley? That's right, all those guys were playing regularly towards the end of the season... I think key injuries also contributed to the losses against GWS, Sydney, Eagles through the regular course of the season and (with some bias) an additional, fit key position defender may have helped in the Grand Final just to quell those two big blokes who didn't get any smaller as the game wore on (and our midfield wore out...). Having said that - I agree with earlier posts that it was one-way traffic in the last half of the game and the pies did well to be so close at the death (and yes WCE the better performing team through the year). Had some losses early in 2018 which were poor but certainly improved as the season wore on. I accept all the rhetoric about 'havent (didn't) beat any decent teams', but you can't really defend that argument. Thumped Adelaide early in Rd 4 (oh wait - they turned out to be no good), then thumped Melbourne on Queen's Birthday after they had been red hot (we'll ignore that one). Poor against the Cats, yes, and lost a heartstopper against Sydney with that McCartin grubber. The Pies actually DID beat "good" sides when it mattered in both GWS and Richmond in the finals. I'd also like to flip the statement around a bit to say "didn't lose to any bad sides'... Also good pick up to the poster who highlighted the "come out early and then hang on grimly" game plan. I felt like that a bit through the course of the year and that was certainly evident on some important losses where the pies led and then got run down. In contrast, however, I think that there was also evidence on other games where it was close and the Pies kicked on (both times vs Ess.) or even came back from behind (such as in the Swans game). Anyway, stats and opinions aside, it's all about to get real. I don't think the Pies are lacking in any area of the field with (all of a sudden) plenty of forwards, backs and mids to chose from and (hopefully) a decent run with injuries. Will need to tap into the same spirit as last year and I am hopeful that because they didn't win the big prize (unlike the Dogs of '16) the hunger will still be there. Probably need to snatch another flag in the next year or two given the quality of the list right now because they'll have to find a way to keep talent through the next 2-3 years to avoid another drop off. Surely finish top four (having beaten quality teams along the way...) and then anything can happen in September.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Who hasn't
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
The toughest thing for the Pies to emulate this season is what they did best last year and that is beating sides lower than them on the ladder. I’d say only the close Sydney loss was the only time a lower ranked side beat us. If you can win the games you’re expected to you are two thirds of the way to finals.
Raimond
Roar Guru
I was trying to make two points in two brief sentences.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
The Eagles certainly thought so in 2018
anon
Roar Pro
They finished 4th last year with a very easy fixture. Sure, they beat the Tigers convincingly in the prelim, but upsets do happen in sport otherwise we wouldn't watch. It came out of nowhere. Remains to be seen whether it was an anomaly or a trend. I suspect an anomaly because Collingwood were a middle of the road kind of team for 23 rounds. Don't forget that from 1/4 time of the Grand Final West Coast were at least a 10 goal better team, they were just terribly inaccurate in front of goal. All of this on Collingwood's home ground against an interstate team too.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
I reckon the wobbles are the team to beat.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
You point out the difficulty of understanding Collingwood's true level. For three years Collingwood had a list of little but injuries, but even then showed individual good quarters where they could leave higher teams in their wake. The big question last year was how much discount to apply for a young and disrupted team versus previous position on the ladder. Despite their losses to Richmond, I felt they matched up well but had injury concerns that could have swung the result. Similarly, they had match up challenges against West Coast but even in the GF performed well.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
While there has been a lot of discussion about the effects of the new rules, I am unconvinced that I have a good understanding of how it will advantage one team/strategy over another across the course of the autumn, winter and spring. What I am convinced about is that, there will have been many great football brains wondering how to get a strategic advantage, but also everyone will be watching everyone else very closely. Further, that some teams will delay fully introducing their strategies until they are seeking a marginal advantage over a closely matched opponent later in the season.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
For this comment to be insightful, you really need to state which position in the previous year is most likely to land you the flag. Except for the premier, every team walks away disappointed so the most important trend is that the most likely outcome of the season is disappointment! My gut feeling is that there is no position that gives you a lock. However, some positions are less likely than others to end in finals nirvana, but this really only demonstrates that not all teams were created equal at the start of the season. If I had to guess, the best statistical predictor of success in any given year for any club is its finishing position in the previous year.
TomC
Roar Guru
I read the first line and was eager to have a conversation about the possible impact of the rule changes, but then the post got boring quickly as it descended into cheerleading. Moving the forward press back 5 meters - or more likely 10 meters - quite clearly will reduce the effectiveness of the forward press. Personally I think the new rules benefit teams with strong tall forwards. I'm not super confident in Mihocek, Cox and Max Lynch to get the same benefits as other teams but, as I said, I doubt it will make much difference anyway. So rest easy.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Adelaide!!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yes, my understanding is that Beams does take up quite a bit of off-field resources. Let's just say it's a good thing he's a gun.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Yes, the Pies worst losses last year IMO were against the Cats where we were outcoached and kicked 5 goals in total and against the Hawks in round one. We were in the other games deep into the second half. Defeating the Eagles would be a huge coup in 2019 considering they went 3-0 against us in 2018 with 2-0 at the G. One feels the new Eagles stadium dimensions matching the G was a very smart move. You average a flag every eight years with the Eagles and who can complain about that.
Maximus Insight
Guest
And yet 4 of those 9 were in the first 8 weeks of the other 5 3 were against west coast including the two lost-in-the-last-few-minutes finals 1 was against richmond with 2-men-down in the second half (which they repaid with interest in the PM) 1 was against the swans in sydney also lost in the last couple of minutes
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
HFM there is a difference between making top 4 and winning the flag. You are talking two different things. 1. A team who comes from outside the eight to make a GF and failing to win the next premiership. 2. A team who comes from outside the eight to make a GF and fails to make top 4. What sample base do you base your "long term trend" on? I would hazard a guess the sample size for teams coming from outside the eight one year and making Grand Finals is too small to gain much insight from.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Surely the new Ruck rules and 6X6X6 will suit sides with dominant Rucks like Gawn and Grundy Tom? As for reduced importance in locking in your forward line, why? Because of the new kick in rules after a behind? Sides will simply move their forward press back 5 metres. The strength of the Pies and their fortunes rested on their four running forwards (Thomas, Stephenson, De Goey and Hoskin-Elliott) and the fact that if one or two are kept quiet, the other ones pop up. I wrote an article on it during the season last year below. Mihocek and Cox need only to make a contest and bring it to ground and then kick the odd goal themselves. Throw in a Varcoe, Jamie Elliott, Beams, Treloar, Sidebottom or even Wells kicking the odd 2-3 goals in a match and we don't need to rely on a Riewoldt, a Buddy or a Tomahawk. We can have any one of our forwards go down with injury and be replaced. Mihocek with Goldsack, Cox with rookie Max Lynch, Broomhead, Elliott and Daicos will be groomed as back up forwards to the key four in De Goey, Stephenson, Hoskin-Elliot and Thomas. https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/08/24/collingwoods-four-running-forwards-will-dictate-finals-fortunes/