Welcome to the last of The Roar’s AFL preview series for 2019. We’re only a day away from the opening of the season, and it’s a magical time of nervous anticipation.
Adelaide is the last team to get a run, predicted for first, which will surprise many after their underwhelming 2018.
As has been well documented, the Crows did not handle the 2017 grand final loss to Richmond well. The hubris of pre-emptively booking a seat for the premiership trophy on the flight home, the power stance they adopted during finals, the pre-season camp that unraveled the entire club…
They played lost football for much of last year, particularly in the first half of the season, and the lowest period was a four-week block where they lost by 91 points to Melbourne, couldn’t even beat Fremantle, and kicked only four goals against Hawthorn.
They finished the season in solid fashion, winning six of their last nine games. It wasn’t a bad platform on which to build 2019 success.
Adelaide Crows best 22
B: T.Doedee K.Hartigan L.Brown
HB: R.Laird D.Talia B.Smith
C: P.Seedsman R.Sloane B.Crouch
HF: T.Lynch T.Walker R.Douglas
F: E.Betts J.Jenkins J.Galluci
Foll: S.Jacobs B.Gibbs M.Crouch
Int: H.Greenwood W.Milera R.Atkins J.Kelly
Em: D.Fogarty R.Knight C.Jones
Looking at this team, there is a reason they finished on top of the ladder and started favourite in a grand final only 26 AFL weeks ago.
On paper, talent-wise, they don’t have a weakness in any area of the ground. They have always been a tall side, and have options for this to continue despite Mitch McGovern leaving for Carlton.
Josh Jenkins is a Coleman Medal smoky with the new rules being implemented this year. He should be Adelaide’s deepest forward, as he traditionally has been, and with his height can also make use of the lightening of the hands in the back interpretation.
Taylor Walker had an injury-interrupted in 2018, too often not firing a shot, and Tom Lynch was also far less effective in his linkman role. Both players averaged far fewer marks and goals per game than they had for the prior three seasons, and can be expected to bounce back.
Darcy Fogarty has a lot of fans as a young tall forward on the up, with a beautiful kick on him, and whether he plays will be a question of structure.
Eddie Betts had a down 2018, like a lot of teammates, and the question around him is whether it was just a blip or the beginning of the end at his age.
Eddie Betts (Photo by Morne de Klerk/Getty Images)
Jordan Galluci shows promise in a small forward role too, and Tyson Stengle was a depth pressure player at Richmond but does address a hole.
Bryce Gibbs was supposed to be the missing piece of the midfield puzzle after the grand final loss, but it didn’t work out that way due to factors beyond his control. He still had a solid year though, and when you add in Rory Sloane, as well as Matt and Brad Crouch they start to look very strong.
The Crouch brothers are the ultimate accumulators, and can post huge numbers. They just have a knack for finding the ball and are smart in how they find space. Sloane has assumed a share of the captaincy, and strikes as the type of player that will elevate his game accordingly from an already high level – he has always led by example with his ferocity and gut running, and this won’t change.
Midfield depth isn’t a problem either, with Richard Douglas still providing good service, Paul Seedsman filling a role as an outside running with a long right-boot, and Hugh Greenwood as an underrated extraction player and physical presence at stoppages. Rory Atkins is a bit of a jobber, but Riley Knight still has upside if he can get a good run with injury.
Sam Jacobs isn’t the sexiest ruckman in the AFL, but is ultra-consistent and durable. He’s only missed four games in the last seven years, which is remarkable for a player in his position.
Down back, there’s a good blend.
Looking at the talls, Tom Doedee finished sixth in the best and fairest, in his first season at AFL level after a few years on the list, filling in the Jake Lever intercept marking role. Daniel Talia has been the rock holding it all together for many years and has better balance in his game than he used to. Kyle Hartigan and Alex Keath are competing for the same spot as another key defender, with Andy Otten in reserve as a capable swingman.
Luke Brown and Jake Kelly give Adelaide smaller lockdown options in defensive 50. The all-important run from the back half is provided by Rory Laird, one of the best decision-makers in the league and deliverer of pinpoint shorter kicks, while Brodie Smith likes to run and carry and drive it long as often as possible. Laird and Smith complement each other perfectly.
Rory Laird (AAP Image/David Mariuz)
Then you have youngster Wayne Milera, who was thrown back last year when Don Pyke wanted to look at a few different things, and uses speed, agility and lovely kicking skills to great effect.
For all of Adelaide’s flaws last year, they still won 12 games. Just by virtue of bouncing back to their best they will improve on that. Add in they have Gold Coast and St Kilda twice, which smell like percentage boosters. The other double-up matches they have are against West Coast, Geelong and Port – all sides they beat in the second half of 2018 when they were playing better football.
If the Crows can be 2-1 after opening against Hawthorn (home), Sydney (away) and Geelong (home), they then have a run of six matches where they would start favourite in all of them. They’ll get the chance to set up their season.
At their best, this is an attractive team to watch, utilising dynamic ball-movement from the back half inside forward 50, and able to score heavily when they get on top of an opposition side. Two good hit-outs in the pre-season suggest they have put the failures of last season behind them and are once again a united group.
Make no mistake, the Crows are as in the premiership race as any other team.
Prediction: first
Peppsy
Roar Guru
Great start
JamesH
Roar Guru
Milera and Doedee were already on the Crows' list, so it's only their improvement that is a gain. It's not as if they were new players brought into the club to offset the loss of others. Betts' apparent decline means the forward line is noticeably weaker without Cameron's spark. They won't really miss McGovern but Lever is still more damaging than Doedee. And Milera has only shown potential so far; he's not the finished article. Gibbs undoubtedly strengthens the side but then the Crows aren't really short on his kind of player in the middle. You could argue that there was a net gain or a net loss but I think it would be spitting hairs. Personnel-wise, the side isn't significantly better or worse overall than it was in 2017. Your point on percentage boosting wins is fair. It went a bit both ways. What I really should have said is that in 2017 the Crows had a tendency to turn good wins into really big wins. When they got on top, they put their opponent to the sword. That will help in 2019 if they can find their killer instinct again.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Is the Roar a major sponsor of the Crows or something? Wowsers! So much love in for the Crows. Look I don't dislike the Crows, but I just can't see this team going from well outside the 8 to at least "Minor Premiers'. I think they have a very good best 22, but I have huge question marks against both depth and team temperment. I guess Proof will be in the season.
VivGilchrist
Roar Rookie
Ok. Bye.
VivGilchrist
Roar Rookie
McGovern spends half his season injured, goes missing in large patches, and saves his two good games a year for bottom teams.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
Well I hope you are right. —- I don’t like the new hands-in-the-back rule. Too grey. Hands for the ball… great. Hands on the back makes a lie of paying the man in front. —- I know the intent of the new ruling. It’s just that players WILL push the boundaries and umpires be too soft.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
Tex played 14 games in 2018 and probably 1/2 of those injured. And he still averaged a couple of goals a game. He won't be double teamed from the outset and the in-the-back rules will also suit him. I would not write him off just yet.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I'm feeling Tex has lost it. I hope not. He looks too stiff in pursuit of the ball
Ryman White
Editor
Good point! Here it is Jakarta.
Redbacks fan
Guest
I think most would argue that is a net gain. Gibbs is certainly a better player than Cameron, there isn't a lot of difference between Doedee and Lever, and although Milera and McGovern are hard to compare as they are very different players, Milera would be first picked by just about everyone. The potential loss comes from the older players who are now two years older than they were in 2017. Particularly Betts and Jacobs who are now both over thirty and were very important players for Adelaide in 2017. You mentioned Adelaide's tendency to smash weak sides in 2017 but this wasn't actually one of there strengths. Adelaide had a better record against top eight sides than they did bottom eight sides and a lot of their percentage boosting wins came against eventual finalists.
Julian
Roar Rookie
No kidding, last years Grand Final was a total snoozefest.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Erm... they also lost Lever, Cameron and McGovern. I wouldn't call that a net gain. I expect the Crows to play finals and push for top 4 with a better injury run, but I can understand the surprise at a prediction of finishing on top. Even their 2017 record would only have had them third last year. One thing they really have going for them is (2018 aside) their penchant for smashing weaker sides. They're every of edging ahead of other sides around them on the ladder due to a superior percentage. That won't help come finals, though.
Danny
Guest
I would pick Alex Keith ahead of Hartigan, who in my opinion is weakest link in the back half makes too many bloopers The biggest in for us is Brodie Smith...his pace and kicking will be a huge difference and I feel the new rules will favor him Sloane Betts Lynch and Walker all fit are almost like new inclusions plus Brad Crouch of course. In the past we have been conservative playing rookies but I really hope Jones is picked for round one My main concern is lack of explosive pace in the midfield and possibly ruck see how Sauce holds up Im pretty sure we will win a few more than last year but I am a it surprised you have them number 1...hope you are correct
Raimond
Roar Guru
I think everyone is still awed by their first 6 matches in 2017, when they were declared Premiers by a lot of pundits. I’m not convinced they are just going to come back to that form at the snap of their fingers. Fifth IMO.
sammy
Guest
Hard to argue with your comments Tom. We crows fans would see Betts form as being vitally important and jenkins needs to keep producing - hopefully the 6-6-6 helps him maintain his goal output. It is Jacobs that worries us most - if he and ROB can't break even in the centre let alone win the ruck, then our defence will have to stand up with the 6-6-6 rule in play as the opposition may get the ball going their way with a winning ruck. Having said that, i think our defence is very well balanced and has bags of talent down there and we can hurt sides on the rebound. I am hoping the team has a big year and can get back towards the top of the ladder
TomC
Roar Guru
It’s a really good first 22 when you lay it out on paper. And they were so exhilarating to watch when they were at their best in 2017; many of us would love to see a return to that. Unfortunately we got a rather clear indication last year of how they cope when they are missing key players – not well. They start the season with close to a clean bill of health so fingers crossed they don’t have to deal with similar issues. I pretty much agree with most of what Cam said. It’s a very well balanced team. The backline, midfield and forwardline are all individually strong enough to just about win games on their own. Apart from whether or not they truly have the depth to maintain their form over a long season, there are a couple of individuals I’m concerned about. Cam mentions the query about Betts’ future. I think Sam Jacobs is approaching a similar point. It’s true that he’s been very durable, but his output was well down last year; he missed the top ten in their B&F after being regularly in the top five in previous seasons. I’m probably also not quite as confident in Jenkins’ capacity to improve on his 2018 showing, or Gibbs’ ability to improve his output as the midfield gets back to full strength. Still, if most things go right, they’re going to be a very real contender this year. Cam, I’ve enjoyed your previews more than usual this year. They’ve all been detailed, balanced and got me thinking about each of the teams, and they pretty much stand alone among all the usual media pre-season dross. I’m looking forward to the season much more as a result.
dbjm
Guest
You didnt watch last years grand final did you? How was that not absorbing?
Professor X
Guest
This is a massive year for the crows. Absolutely massive. Top 6 or fail. The crows have a very good list but it's a bit extreme having everybody have them in top 4. They'll finish 5th I think
Rex
Guest
You clearly don’t know a lot about footy with an ignorant comment like that pauld! This side was the stand out only 18 months ago (bar one poor game) and if anything has strengthened their list since - Milera, Doedee, Gibbs etc Confused as to why you think it so unlikely the AFC won’t be a contender this year??
Rex
Guest
I actually think richmond miss the top eight this year Rob!