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Preview of round 13 AFL games (all times local).
Teams ST KILDA V FREMANTLE
Venue Telstra Dome
Date Friday, June 20
Time 7.40pm
Head.to.head St Kilda 7 Fremantle 11 Drawn 0
Last.time St Kilda 19.12 (126) bt Fremantle 14.12 (96) R20 2007, Telstra Dome
Betting TABSportsbet St Kilda $1.95 Fremantle $1.80 Centrebet St Kilda $1.95 Fremantle $1.85
Summary Fremantle’s stunning upset win over North Melbourne last week has given a St Kilda side desperate to prop up its top eight prospects cause for a serious rethink. The erratic Saints a week ago could have pencilled in this clash as the one which launches them on their mission for the second half of the season. Injuries though have cut deep, especially on the forward line where the absence of Fraser Gehrig and Justin Koschitzke means the pressure is all on Nick Riewoldt to kick goals. After a lacklustre season the Dockers finally registered their second win but did it in great style as goalsneak Jeff Farmer made a sizzling return to form and forward Matthew Pavlich tore apart the weakened Kangaroos defence. Whether Fremantle can sustain their resurgence is the key question.
Key With eighth spot still up for grabs, surely the Saints have the edge in motivation. Things could get ugly if they drop this one – with coach Ross Lyon’s accountable gameplan winning far from overwhelming support from the St Kilda faithful.
Tip St Kilda by 20 points
Teams HAWTHORN V NORTH MELBOURNE
Venue MCG
Date Saturday, June 21
Time 2.10pm
Head.to.head Hawthorn 86 North Melbourne 72 Drawn 2
Last.time Hawthorn 15.12 (102) bt North Melbourne 13.8 (86) R3 2008, Telstra Dome
Betting TABSportsbet Hawthorn $1.12 North Melbourne $5.75 Centrebet Hawthorn $1.17 North Melbourne $5
Summary The Kangaroos will be fuming after their limp effort against the Dockers last week – but whether that will mean much against the league’s second best side is debatable. The loss of ruckman Hamish McIntosh for the season with a knee injury, leaving David Hale to carry the load, could be a telling blow as the Roos fight to regain a foothold in the eight. They also need a speedy return to form from midfield veteran Shannon Grant and will be after big games from Brent Harvey, Daniel Wells and skipper Adam Simpson. But the Hawks have one of the slickest midfields in the business – and an even better attack.
Key Big blokes. The Hawks hold all the aces in the ruck and the key positions.
Tip Hawthorn by 30 points
Teams PORT ADELAIDE V RICHMOND
Venue AAMI Stadium
Date Saturday, June 21
Time 2.40pm
Head.to.head Port Adelaide 11 Richmond 4 Drawn 0
Last.time Port Adelaide 24.11 (55) bt Richmond 15.10 (100) R16 2007, MCG
Betting TABSportsbet Port Adelaide $1.30 Richmond $3.30 Centrebet Port Adelaide $1.35 Richmond $3.20
Summary The finals hopes of both sides rest on the outcome of this game. The Tigers could just scrape into the eight with up to six winnable matches in the run home. But lose this one and the September dream is effectively over. It’s a similar scenario for the Power, last year’s grand finalists fading to a shadow of their 2007 form. The Tigers are in better form but it has always been tough for them at AAMI Stadium where they’ve lost seven of their past eight games against Port. Matthew Richardson has been inspirational this season, Nathan Brown is back to near-prime form – but it took the best of both of them to hold off last-placed Melbourne last week. If there is one factor which might keep the Power intense for four quarters it is the slight chance of a berth in the September action.
Key Shutting down Daniel Motlop. Not many have done it this year, but if the Tigers can find a way, they will be well on the road to a valuable victory.
Tip Richmond by 10 points
Teams WEST COAST V GEELONG
Venue Subiaco
Date Saturday, June 21
Time 5.40pm
Head.to.head West Coast 21 Geelong 15 Drawn 1
Last.time Geelong 16.13 (109) bt West Coast 10.10 (70) R7 2007, Skilled Stadium
Betting TABSportsbet West Coast $5 Geelong $1.15 Centrebet West Coast $5.25 Geelong $1.16
Summary Pumped up after powering past Port, the Cats will be in no mood to back off against a fallen West Coast side, even if the match is at Subiaco. That’s about the only edge for the Eagles. They are massively understrength in the centre, with Daniel Kerr the only real class midfielder they can call on and he is likely to be swamped by likes of Gary Ablett, Paul Chapman, Cameron Ling, Jimmy Bartel and Joel Selwood. The Cats showed last week just how many options they have with Chapman and 100-gamer Steve Johnson the only multiple goalkickers and nine players chiming in with singles. The Eagles do have the best ruckman in the competition in Dean Cox – but he was sadly out of form against Essendon and will need to recover quickly to have a bigger impact against Brad Ottens who is slowly regaining touch after a foot injury.
Key The Cats have the class and speed to outplay and out-run the Eagles with ease on the biggest ground in the competition.
Tip Geelong by 25 points
Teams BRISBANE V ADELAIDE
Venue Gabba
Date Saturday, June 21
Time 7.10pm
Head.to.head Brisbane 13 Adelaide 14 Drawn 0
Last.time Adelaide 12.14 (86) bt Brisbane 8.12 (60) R21 2007, AAMI Stadium
Betting TABSportsbet Brisbane $1.40 Adelaide $2.80 Centrebet Brisbane $1.42 Adelaide $2.85
Summary The Gabba in the past has held no demons for Adelaide, who are determined to work their way back into the top four after narrowly missing out on toppling Hawthorn last week. Jonathan Brown is again likely to carry much of the scoring load for the Lions. He will first have to deal with the tough Crows defenders Nathan Bock and Ben Rutten, who will be far from over-awed, while their reliable sidekick Nathan Bassett celebrates becoming the eighth Crow to reach the 200-game milestone. Brisbane’s loss to the Western Bulldogs last week showed up some serious cracks in the side.
Key The Lions’ home form has been good, but the Crows are renowned road warriors.
Tip Adelaide by 20 points
Teams MELBOURNE V SYDNEY
Venue Manuka Oval
Date Sunday, June 22
Time 1.10pm
Head.to.head Melbourne 91 Sydney 107 Drawn 1
Last.time Sydney 17.10 (112) bt Melbourne 9.10 (64) R18 2007, Manuka Oval
Betting TABSportsbet Melbourne $8 Sydney $1.06 Centrebet Melbourne $8.25 Sydney $1.07
Summary Melbourne are still stranded at the bottom of the ladder on one win, but at least they’re not regularly getting flogged anymore. But they’re unlikely to get any charity from the hard-nosed Swans, who’ve shot up to fourth place on the back of five straight wins. Sydney have an enviable forward set-up which has been enhanced with the return of Barry Hall and it’s hard to see the young Demon defenders having much of an impact. Hall, Ryan O’Keefe and Michael O’Loughlin are just three of the experienced stars Melbourne will have their hands full with. Durable Swan Jude Bolton plays his 200th AFL match.
Key Sydney is zeroing in on a top-four spot and can’t afford to drop games like this. And they won’t.
Tip Sydney by 35 points
Teams CARLTON V ESSENDON
Venue MCG
Date Sunday, June 22
Time 2.10pm
Head.to.head Carlton 85 Essendon 110 Drawn 3
Last.time Essendon 23.12 (150) bt Carlton 21.8 (134) R3 2008, MCG
Betting TABSportsbet Carlton $1.30 Essendon $3.30 Centrebet Carlton $1.35 Essendon $3.20
Summary Carlton are claiming underdogs status in this game following their high-scoring loss to the Bombers in round three – but coach Brett Ratten admits the Blues have come a long way since then. They now have an even spread of contributors instead of a few standout performers and have clawed their way into the eight. But at least Essendon can take winning form into the game after snapping an eight-game losing streak against West Coast last week. And no sight was more welcome for Bombers fans than the return to form of skipper Matthew Lloyd.
Key The stats say that Carlton captain Chris Judd is now replicating the best of his West Coast form with his new club.
Tip Carlton by 20 points
Teams COLLINGWOOD V WESTERN BULLDOGS
Venue Telstra Dome
Date Sunday, June 22
Time 4.40pm
Head.to.head Collingwood 99 Western Bulldogs 40 Drawn 1
Last.time Western Bulldogs 20.15 (135) bt Collingwood 14.18 (102) R8 2007, Telstra Dome
Betting TABSportsbet Collingwood $2.80 Western Bulldogs $1.40 Centrebet Collingwood $2.80 Western Bulldogs $1.44
Summary The acid test for Collingwood after its loss to Carlton – and one which will revive some unwanted memories. While there are doubts over the credibility of Collingwood as finals contenders a win here would lay many of them to rest. But the stats are not good – the Magpies have won just one of their past five clashes with the Bulldogs and they will face a team high on winning. They are fresh from a demolition of Brisbane which displayed all the talents of rampaging young midfielder Adam Cooney and veteran Jason Akermanis, who has returned to the form which made him such a focal point for the Lions.
Key The Magpies’ small forwards have been their strength this year, but it’s doubtful whether the likes of Alan Didak, Leon Davis, Paul Medhurst and Dale Thomas can have the same impact without tall targets Travis Cloke (suspended) and Anthony Rocca (injured).
Tip Western Bulldogs by 20 points
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