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New Zealand, Australia and South Africa are in action in Europe on Saturday for the start of a series of rugby Tests almost certain to remind the northern hemisphere’s top teams how far they have to catch up.
The strongest challenge to the southern teams again looks set to come from England, although it is far from clear how the World Cup runners-up will perform in their first home matches since a major overhaul of coaching and playing staff that started with the appointment of World Cup-winning captain Martin Johnson as manager.
The size of the task facing England, France, Wales, Ireland, Scotland and Italy can be shown by the fact that since England lifted the 2003 World Cup, the Six Nations sides have managed only a combined 13 wins in 76 Tests against the big three southern hemisphere teams.
While Australia are in Italy and World Cup holders South Africa are in Wales on Saturday, the All Blacks begin their four-Test tour of the United Kingdom with a match in Scotland that looks like a reasonably gentle warm-up for fixtures against Ireland, Wales and England.
New Zealand won the teams’ most recent meeting 40-0 in last year’s World Cup, and coach Graham Henry is on a continuing mission to prove that his board was right to keep him on despite a quarter-final capitulation to France that maintained the nation’s usual habit of peaking between World Cups rather than at them.
But New Zealand, who are going for just their third ever sweep of the Home Unions after triumphs in 1978 and 2005, have made 12 changes to the side that beat Australia 19-14 in Hong Kong last weekend.
Only fullback Isaia Toeava, flyhalf Stephen Donald and lock Ali Williams survive a cull partly borne out of a desire by Henry to give playing time to as many of his squad as possible. Prop Jamie Mackintosh, loose forward Liam Messam and lock Kieran Read will all make their debuts.
“This is a strong team with a mix of experienced players and new faces and we have picked the best team to win this Test match,” Henry said.
“We will not be taking the Scottish team lightly. They will be playing with passion and determination in front of a vocal Murrayfield, so we are expecting a physical encounter.”
But that is unlikely to be enough for Scotland, who finished joint last in this year’s Six Nations.
Scotland have never beaten New Zealand and are counting on the return of the experienced Jason White, Simon Taylor and Nathan Hines to at least help provide some resistance against a team boasting the return, after a year out, of speedy winger Joe Rokocoko – who has scored 43 tries in 48 internationals.
England host the Pacific Islanders hoping to build upon a 33-10 win over Ireland in March that showed glimpses of what fans and commentators hope to be a more expansive style. Flyhalf Danny Cipriani, who orchestrated that victory on his debut, is back in action following a serious ankle injury to help lead a team featuring four new players.
Riki Flutey, a former Junior All Black and New Zealand Maori who qualified to play for England only on residency grounds in September, will start at inside center. London Irish lock Nick Kennedy will feature alongside captain Steve Borthwick, with Delon Armitage at fullback and Ugo Monye on the left wing.
South Africa, who beat England in the World Cup final, is coming off a 53-8 win over Australia at the end of the Tri-Nations in August.
Wales lost twice in South Africa in June, but coach Warren Gatland has made eight changes from the team that lost 37-21 against the Springboks in Pretoria.
In other matches, Argentina are in France, and Ireland host Canada.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.