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Without commenting specifically about what the team should be for Perth, this article looks beyond this series, up to around the next Ashes series in England in mid-2013.
That Ashes series is not the sole purpose of this succession planning, but being two or three years away, it is about the time that generational change should be complete.
The selectors need to sit down and go through each player, young and old, and work out how best to use them for the benefit of the team in the short, medium and long term.
We want to avoid a situation where, say, three experienced players retire or are dropped around the same time – they need to be phased out. Three of our batsmen are 35.
The landscape will inevitably change, with injuries and loss of form.
Upcoming Fixtures
Over the next two years, this is our test schedule:
April 2011 – Two tests in Bangladesh
June 2011 – Host Zimbabwe for two tests
August 2011 – Three tests in Sri Lanka
Sept/Oct 2011 – Three tests in South Africa
Nov/Dec 2011 – Host NZ for two tests
Dec/Jan 2011/2012 – Host India for four tests
March/April 2012 – Three tests in West Indies
Oct/Nov 2012 – Tests in Pakistan (if deemed safe)
Summer 2012/2013 – Unknown, but will be at least five tests, and probably our last test series before the Ashes the following Australian winter.
Ponting (Age: 35), Katich (35) and the Captaincy
On the basis that we lose this series, or at least don’t win it, we’ll assume Ponting is dropped as captain.
Let’s also assume that the selectors realise that what they need is a captain who is experienced, tough, smart, creative, and a good mentor to and leader of younger players.
Ideally, someone who has experience moulding a young team into a champion team. I have just described Simon Katich.
I would install him as test captain (Ponting remains ODI captain) for 18 months or so, until someone else is ready to take over – be it Michael Clarke (who was surprisingly inventive as Australia’s T20 captain) or someone else. Ponting stays in as a specialist batsman until the end of next summer, which can be his swansong. Ferguson waits in the wings for Ponting’s batting spot.
Mike Hussey (35)
Huss might be back to close to his best form, however given his age, he should be the first to be phased out, and at the end of this series. Ferguson (26) and Khawaja (nearly 24) are the best options, based on technique, consistency, class and performance.
Khawaja has succeeded since being anointed as next in line, and Ferguson has dug us out of holes regularly in ODIs, making batting look easy on what was a minefield for those before him.
Clarke (29) and Watson (29)
I now like Watson as opener. He is technically sound, and can be intimidating. Even if Hughes is picked now, I think after this series when Katich is fit again, he should go back to Shield cricket and further remedial work on his technique. At 22, his time will come.
Clarke is a class batsman and has proven himself at test level. Maybe a captain like Katich could sort him out mentally, so he’s scoring more consistently. He should forget about ODIs and T20 cricket, because he’s simply not very good at them.
Haddin (33)
I see Tim Paine (26) as a very strong candidate as the future skipper. This could prematurely end Haddin’s test career. Paine proved when called in for the Indian tests recently that his keeping, batting and composure are all strong. Haddin’s scoring consistently now, but for how long?
Spinners
The candidates here are Smith (21), O’Keefe (26), Hauritz (29), Doherty (28), Beer (26) and Boyce (21). Michael Beer is a WA left-arm finger spinner and Cameron Boyce is a young Qld leggie.
I see it as in everyone’s best interests that Steve Smith come in soon, and today he came in for Marcus North. Roebuck considers him a better bowler than the figures suggest, and he is probably similar to what Warne was when given his chance.
He has his batting (and even fielding) to fall back on, and as he is such an exciting talent, he needs to be backed. With Watson and Smith in the top 6, you have as varied a bowling attack as anyone.
Of the rest, Steve O’Keefe has played 10 first class games, and has 37 wickets at an average of 24 and an economy rate of 3.1 Batting wise, he has scored 462 runs at 51. None of the others come close to this.
Hauritz was only ever there until someone better came along. The added benefit is that if you consider Smith at six wobbles the batting order, O’Keefe at eight compensates for that.
Medium Pacers
Right now, Ryan Harris (31) is our best bowler. Hilfenhaus (27), Johnson (29) and Siddle (26) did well in South Africa 21 months ago, and periodically since. Doug the Rug (29) has been among our most reliable for the last 12 months but is struggling now.
Those coming through include Peter George (24) and Trent Copeland (24), both tall right-armers, Mark Cameron (29) a bustling right-armer who moves it round (like Harris) and Mitchell Starc (only 20), a tall leftie who brings it back in to the right-hander.
Mitchell Johnson is the quandary – do you back him as the sometimes match-winner he is, or discard him as technically and emotionally unreliable? I can’t answer that right now.
Copeland, like Steve O’Keefe, has been almost faultless since he came in to first class cricket. In nine matches, the McGrath-esque tall and accurate right-armer has amassed 57 wickets at 18, and an economy rate of 2.65 runs per over. None of the bowlers are at their end, so the attack I would like to keep around the squad for the period are Harris, Copeland, Hilfenhaus, Johnson and Cameron.
Siddle and Bollinger aren’t enough of a constant threat and George isn’t ready yet. Johnson is the one I am backing, but if he’s off, you have others to bring in. This stays constant over the next 2-3 years unless someone else starts demanding selection.
In 3 years Harris will be 34, Johnson and Cameron 32 and Hilfy 30, so you’d be looking at George and Starc, with others like Hazlewood, Cutting and Pattinson coming through.
Summary Of Succession Plan
April 2011, Bangladesh – Katich back (for Hughes) to open with Watson. Khawaja in for Hussey at 5. O’Keefe in as long-term specialist spinner. Harris, Copeland, Hilfy, Johnson and Cameron as the quicks.
June 2011, host Zimbabwe – No further changes
August 2011, in Sri Lanka – Look at bringing Tim Paine in one of the next 3 series – as soon as Haddin slumps, which he will
Sept/Oct 2011 in South Africa – Khawaja and Ponting swap positions in the batting order
Nov/Dec 2011, NZ – No changes
Dec/Jan 2011/2012, host India – No changes
March/April 2012, West Indies – Ferguson in for Ponting
Oct/Nov 2012, Pakistan – No changes
Summer 2012/2013 – Hughes comes in for Katich. Captain to be one of Paine, Ferguson, Clarke or Khawaja. We should have the team we are planning on taking to England by now: Hughes, Watson, Khawaja, Clarke, Ferguson, Smith, Paine (c), O’Keefe, Harris, Copeland and Hilfy/Johnson/Cameron.
A series together at home will be a good preparation.
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