What does 2012 have in store for Richmond supporters? Our next AFL season preview takes a look.
The Recap
Last year: 8-13-1, 12th
Best and fairest: Trent Cotchin
Leading goal kicker: Jack Riewoldt (62)
Key additions: Ivan Maric (Adelaide), Addam Maric (Melbourne)
Key losses: Mitch Morton, Will Thursfield
Analysis
After clawing their way out of the bottom four last season on the back of improvement from a healthy crop of young stars, the trend for the Tigers appears to be headed upwards.
However, there’s still a few problems for Damien Hardwick to address before we can get too carried away with this team.
A lack of consistency is one of them. When Richmond were up and about, they stood up to some quality opposition – as evidenced by beating Essendon and Sydney, while also drawing with St Kilda.
But there were times when that kind of form was impossible to associate with the same group of players – like losses to both Gold Coast and Port Adelaide, or the woeful 103-point loss to Carlton.
The 2011 season was a bit of a rollercoaster, and while inconsistency is to be expected of young teams, it’s a habit that needs to be shaken before this team can take the next step. Certainly, if the Tigers lose to the Suns or Port – or the Giants for that matter – this season, you can almost guarantee they won’t be ready for finals football.
Next on Hardwick’s to-do list would be defence. They conceded a whopping 109 points a game last year, and only the Suns and Port leaked more often. While some may blame this on the back six, the stats suggest the problem extends further than that.
Champion Data’s first year of collecting pressure stats did not reflect well on the Tigers, with only the Suns finishing the season with a worse differential to their opponents in terms of pressure factor. Put simply, that means when Richmond didn’t have the ball they weren’t very good at pressuring their opponents to either get it back or affect the quality of the disposal.
The back six, for what it’s worth, should be less of a concern this year as it has been in the past. They have a plethora of options north of 185cm – Alex Rance, Dylan Grimes, Jack Batchelor, Jayden Post and Matt Dea – who are inexperienced but have potential.
Of the smaller defenders, Chris Newman and Bachar Houli are two very handy players to have.
There is so, so much to like about the Tiger midfield. Dustin Martin and his lethal “don’t argue”, Trent Cotchin coming off a best and fairest year, Reece Conca coming off an impressive debut season, and now apparently Brett Deledio will be moving to the middle too. It’s all very exciting.
For all that, though, clearances were an issue last year. As were contested possessions. The addition of Deledio, and another pre-season into the aforementioned other three, will surely help lift the output in these areas.
That said, what would really be a game changer is if a decent ruckman emerged to set them all up (Andrew Browne and Angus Graham just didn’t cut the mustard last year). That’s why the Tigers traded for Ivan Maric, but is he really the answer? Graham averaged 23 hitouts last year and Browne 20, yet Maric’s career best average for a season is 17.9.
Overall, the Tiger midfield does have the talent, but it must improve defensively and be more of a force at stoppages. Being good on paper isn’t enough.
Spearheaded by Jack Riewoldt, the Tiger forward line is developing into a pretty strong unit. While Riewoldt’s production dipped from a Coleman Medal-winning 78 goals to 62 last season, that won’t faze Hardwick one bit because the arrival of a decent support cast in 2011 more than made up for it.
Fellow key forward Tyrone Vickery had 36 goals, Martin had 33 and four other players had more than 15 (the total kicked by 2010’s runner-up goal kicker Andrew Collins).
Not only do these numbers look good on paper, on the field it means Richmond are a more unpredictable team inside 50. Opponents can no longer expect the majority of the ball to be kicked to one man, and no longer will Riewoldt being shut down effectively mean game over. These can only be good things.
Ultimately, only GWS and Gold Coast have a younger list than Richmond. The top five in their best and fairest were all under 23. Finals, whilst certainly within reach, shouldn’t yet be the benchmark for this team.
Nonetheless, if they can break free of inconsistency, apply more pressure on opponents and a dominant ruckman emerges, it does seem possible. Don’t write them off.
Prediction: 9th-12th
m0nty’s Fantasy Picks
FanFooty.com.au‘s Paul Montgomery gives us his AFL fantasy picks for each team for 2012, including a keeper (the one you must have), cash cow (good prospects for healthy trading), and fool’s gold (avoid at all costs).
Keeper: Dustin Martin is one of the crop of young midfielder/forwards who is highly popular among fantasy coaches in preseason. In his third season, there is every expectation he can lift his average by another ten points to reach 100 for your team every week.
Cash cow: Brandon Ellis is only 18 but has a body ready for senior footy. From the club that produced Reece Conca last year, the Tigers will need his rebound run. Steven Morris is worth looking at here too.
Fool’s gold: Tom Derickx is attracting a bit of attention, but is not a natural scorer. Plenty of fantasy coaches have been burned over the years by young Tiger ruckmen. Don’t be one of them.
Richmond photo gallery
First five fixtures
Round 1 vs. Carlton, MCG
Round 2 vs. Collingwood, MCG
Round 3 vs. Melbourne, MCG
Round 4 vs. Geelong, Simonds
Round 5 vs. West Coast, Etihad
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