Wallabies dig deep: I like what they’ve found
Roar Pro By John Philipson, 21 Nov 2012 John Philipson is a Roar Pro
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- 2015 Rugby World Cup, robbie deans, Rugby Union, wallabies
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I think that the Wallabies are shaping to become a serious powerhouse in world rugby over the next three to four years, certainly in time for the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
In fact I am going to be so bold as to say that they have got the best shot of a team peaking at exactly the right time for that competition.
Bear with me.
Let’s consider the position when Robbie Deans first took the Wallabies on in 2008 – this was his squad.
If you scan that players list you will notice a fair number of the current crop of players missing. If you ever wanted some evidence of Robbie Deans’ emphasis (and requirement) on rebuilding Australian rugby (after it arguably rested on its laurels leading into 2007 Rugby World Cup) that squad list is proof.
Deans has brought in Genia, Cooper, Hooper, Gill, Beale, O’Connor, Timani, etc. from scratch. On top of that he has supported these players from that 2008 squad who at the time had: Alexander uncapped, Burgess uncapped, Ioane one cap, Berrick Barnes four caps, Adam Ashley-Cooper 12 caps, Tatafu Polota-Nau three caps and James Horwill one cap.
It is reasonable to expect that in the intermediate period, the Wallabies would have performed abysmally and would struggle.
But what Robbie has managed to do is build some seriously enviable depth and still manage an ok record with a bunch of developing players.
So, let’s take a look at the likely 2015 World Cup squad (including backups) and see how Robbie has implemented a franchise-like depth to the Wallabies:
1. Ben Alexander (46 caps)/Sekope Kepu (21 )/Dan Palmer (one)
2. Tatafu Polota-Nau (43)/Stephen Moore (74)/Saia Fainga’a (19)/ James Hanson (one)
3. Benn Robinson (54)/James Slipper (32)/Paddy Ryan (one)
4. James Horwill (35)/ Rob Simmons (23)
5. Kane Douglas (four)/Caderyn Neville/Sitaleki Timani (nine)
6. Dave Dennis (13)/Radike Samo (23)/Scott Higginbotham (21)/Ita Vaea/Hugh McMeniman (21)
7. David Pocock (45)/Michael Hooper(11)/Liam Gill(8)
8. Wycliff Palu (44)/Ben McCalman (21) /Richard Brown (23)
9. Will Genia (42)/Nick Phipps (10)
10. Kurtley Beale (34) /Berrick Barnes (48) (with Matt Toomua/Christian Lealiafano in the wings)
11. Digby Ioane (32)/Nick Cummins (four)/Drew Mitchell (61)/Lachie Turner (15)/Dom Shipperly (three)
12. Pat McCabe (19)/Ben Tapuai (four)/James O’Connor(37)/Chris Feauai-Sautia (if you don’t know him google him – he is the next big thing)
13. Rob Horne (14)/Adam Ashley-Cooper (75)/Anthony Fainga’a (23)
14. Joe Tomane(one)/Cooper Vuna (two)/Rod Davies (one)
15. Mike Harris (seven)/Luke Morahan (one)
If you pick the players now with close to 40 or more caps, and then throw in some up and coming talent, such as Tomane, Sautia, Lealifano, I have added 40 caps for roughly four years of Test rugby (lowered the number to account for injuries etc) to their current totals.
That is the next Rugby World Cup champion team. That team would have 22 players with a total of 1381 caps with an average of 62 caps per player. That is the sort of experience you need to win the World Cup.
Will just be a shame that some other coach (please don’t let it be Ewen McKenzie) will reap the benefits of this development of experience and commitment to youth that has epitomised Robbie’s reign.
Yes indeed, the Wallabies truly are maturing like a fine wine – and it will now be the All Blacks turn over the next few years to see how their own youngsters perform (as the Wallabies already had to endure their ten straight losses when blooding against an All Blacks team which was largely unchanged from 2007).
I look forward to the battles between Beauden Barrett and an established James O’Connor for example, or Sam Cane taking on David Pocock.
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November 21st 2012 @ 4:45am
kingplaymaker said | November 21st 2012 @ 4:45am | Report comment
The other thing to add to this of course is that completely new young players will appear over the next three years.
The last cycle threw up Genia, JOC, Beale and Cooper in the backs and similarly talented newcomers are due soon.
The only sorrow is the wanton destruction of Jordan Rapana’s career by the hopeless Michael Foley. If only one of the other franchises would add him to their EPS to undo Foley’s awful work.
November 21st 2012 @ 2:34pm
gaffa said | November 21st 2012 @ 2:34pm | Report comment
\Give in mate Rapana has not played a game of rugby for 3 years and is injury prone I just don’t get your attacks on Foley its starting to get old. A player cant live on 5 games he played 5 years ago in a different sport with the hope that he may come good. You have no idea why he was cut and maybe seeing as he hasn’t been picked up by anyone anywhere there is a reason for it.
November 21st 2012 @ 2:38pm
Red Kev said | November 21st 2012 @ 2:38pm | Report comment
Deans lives on his Super Rugby record from 5 years ago, why not Rapana? At least kpm consistently defends both.
November 21st 2012 @ 4:07pm
borris said | November 21st 2012 @ 4:07pm | Report comment
Yeah mate, time to let it go…
November 22nd 2012 @ 11:39am
bob said | November 22nd 2012 @ 11:39am | Report comment
I haven’t really heard deans say anything about his record in the super 15? I have heard his supporters on the roar quite rightly point out that his super 15 coaching record is unmatched by anybody, but I have not heard deans mention it. As a result I am a bit confused about how deans lives on his super 15 record?
November 21st 2012 @ 5:15am
Justin2 said | November 21st 2012 @ 5:15am | Report comment
Super 15 expansion has built the depth…
November 21st 2012 @ 5:19am
kingplaymaker said | November 21st 2012 @ 5:19am | Report comment
Are you being ironic Justin or not?
November 21st 2012 @ 5:53am
Justin2 said | November 21st 2012 @ 5:53am | Report comment
Factual
November 21st 2012 @ 6:06am
kingplaymaker said | November 21st 2012 @ 6:06am | Report comment
Ok in that case I completely agree.
More teams mean more playing opportunities for more players.
Not only that but expansion into completely virgin rugby terrain with the likes of the Rebels and Force, creates players that would never have existed in rugby before.
SO even more teams would mean even more players getting opportunities and in the case of Adelaide the creation of players who would never have existed before.
If SANZAR could find a way to redistribute players so as to add even a small extra number of teams, it would make a massive difference to the playing stocks in Australia as well as the other countries.
November 21st 2012 @ 5:45am
maxxlord said | November 21st 2012 @ 5:45am | Report comment
Nice theory, but the trouble you have with this is that the Kiwis could likely put together an even more impressive breakdown of their next world cup team. In any case after 5 years in charge and with a flopped world cup challenge in the rearview mirror no coach can credibly claim to still be “developing” anything, its just a flop.
November 21st 2012 @ 10:12am
John Philipson said | November 21st 2012 @ 10:12am | Report comment
Disagree Maxxlord.
The Kiwis in fact made a distinct decision to stick with a number of players from the failed 2007 campaign. What this means is that a number of players will need to be blooded in the next couple of years to ensure that they have the depth come RWC 15.
They must be careful not to fall in to the trap that the wallabies did under connolly, and hang on too long to golden sons (despite the results that may eventuate) – this is much harded in NZ with the expectation of continued winning, and full credit to Hansen I think he is making a reasonable fist of this: (think Cane, Cruden, Coles, A Smith, Vito, Ellison, B Smith, Savea).
But the reality is this (take this from a resident Kiwi) is the likely Kiwi team once their talismanic players retire (which they will).
1. Faumuina
2. Dane Coles
3. Franks
4. Whitelock
5. Romano/Retallick
6. Vito
7. Sam Cane
8. Kieran Read (past his peak – eg now)
9. A Smith
10. A Cruden
11. Savea
12. Tamati Ellison
13. Ben Smith/Fruean
14. ????
15. Dagg
I am sorry but that team does not really intimidate me…at all.
Especially when compared to:
1. Slipper
2. TPN
3. Alexander
4. Horwill
5. Timani/Simmons
6. Gill
7. Hooper
8. Pocock
9. Genia
10. Beale
11. Vuna/Tomane
12. Tapuai
13. O’Connor
14. Sautia/Cummins
15. Barnes/Morahan
Eg many of the current players of now with 40 more tests under the belt – that is my point.
November 21st 2012 @ 11:49am
Team Taniwha said | November 21st 2012 @ 11:49am | Report comment
Amusing the unblighted optimism. If Read is at his peak now at age 27, than what is Palu who is aged 30 now?
By the World cup, the likes of Aaron Smith Romano/Retallick, Dagg, Savea and Whitelock will be 50 plus test veterans by RWC2015. Plus SBW at 2nd five, Ellison won’t be number one choice at 12. If I had the time I could list the depth at each position of players marking their mark at super level who have made their mark at junior cup level (talking about championship winning players not merely representing country calibre players).
Sure, McCraw, Hore and Melaumu will most likely not make it, but this fallacy of writing of any player in their 30′s is just that, a fallacy. Add in that Kaino has started he wants to return to defend the title, plus up and comers like Shields to name one adds some real starch. Your line up with 3 open-sides would get smashed all over the place around the collisions.
It is the South Africans, with a few years of experience that will have a truly scary pack and with Goosen directing traffic, the ones to watch.
November 21st 2012 @ 11:53am
kingplaymaker said | November 21st 2012 @ 11:53am | Report comment
Yes TT, but the team won’t actually be better than it is now, only the same in quality. The difference with the Wallabies is that their overall playing stock is improving, while the All Blacks is just staying the same.
As for Palu, I think he may well last a long time as he is the same kind of power player as Petero Civonceva in league, or Thorn/Samo in union, who because they rely on pure power more than anything else, last a long time (Palu also has an amazing workrate at the moment, far beyond Hooper in the last match).
November 21st 2012 @ 12:09pm
Team Taniwha said | November 21st 2012 @ 12:09pm | Report comment
Broad generalisations that the Wallaby stock is improving, based on your subjective opinion. Test matches are won and lost up front in the collisions and the contact area. Something that is still a weakness for Wallabies.
As for Palu, he makes the odd meaningful contribution but I would take Read now and in 3 years time at the 2015 World Cup. If you want a hight work rate number 8, look at Nasi Manu for the Highlanders. He doesn’t even get a look in for the AB’s.
November 21st 2012 @ 12:13pm
kingplaymaker said | November 21st 2012 @ 12:13pm | Report comment
That’s untrue on Palu, he has been quite outstanding in every test he has played since the Hong Kong test a couple of years back. This year he has had an astonishing workrate and relentless physical impact around the field, topping most counts for tackles, runs clearouts etc…
The statements on the number of high quality players here are backed up with examples, they are not aimless generalisations.
November 21st 2012 @ 12:46pm
John Philipson said | November 21st 2012 @ 12:46pm | Report comment
I just illustrated that the increase in caps and experience will tend to improve the players and therefore the stock. Actually last time the ABs played the Wallabies the breakdown and collision area was a weakness for the ABs I think. I would also take Read over Palu – who wouldn’t? Not sure why he is figuring in this anyway. Re Gill being an openside, the Kid is 21 and has the height to fill into a VERY useful 6 – I would be very surprised if he didnt try to go this way given the existence of Hooper/Pocock.
November 21st 2012 @ 12:44pm
John Philipson said | November 21st 2012 @ 12:44pm | Report comment
Ok TT.
No Dan Carter
No Richie McCaw
No Ma’a Nonu
No Conrad Smith
No Jerome Kaino (let’s be realistic here)
A 31 year old Kieran Read
No Woodcock
No Hore
No Mealamu
No Thomson
No SBW (living on a prayer waiting for him to come back mate)
PLEASE take the time to explain to me how, that exodus of players when compared to the Wallabies retention of their core players (with on average 30 caps already) will not mean that the Wallabies have a GREAT crack at knocking the All Blacks off.
Unless you honestly think that Beauden Barrett/A Smith/Cane etc will be better than O’Connor/Genia/Pocock in four years time?
November 21st 2012 @ 1:25pm
Team Taniwha said | November 21st 2012 @ 1:25pm | Report comment
Why are we not realist with Jerome Kaino? I agree on the rest.
By 2015, A.Smith/ Tj Penara/Tawera Kerr Barlow will be a fearsome set of 9′s, Barrett/Cruden World class tens, Savea & Dagg proven world class performers plus likely risers like George Piutau, Charlie Ngati and maybe Fruen. So reasonable they got everything O’Connor and Genia got, plus a fresh man of the bench. I will concede Walalbies would have advantage at open side, but loose forwards are a combination, and without a heavy hitter at 6, and Paulu at 33 be gone (by your definition as is the same age as Nonu), the balance of the Wallaby back from doesn’t look that great. I would hardly say living on prayer in regards to SBW, if well known he will return to the Chiefs 2014 (though nothing is certain with him). I have put the following list as an illustration of the strength coming through.
1. Faumuina/Franks
2. Dane Coles/Elliot
3. Ben Afeaki/Ben Tameifuna
4. Whitelock/Dominic Bird
5. Romano/Retallick
6. Vito/ Messam/Shields/Kaino
7. Sam Cane/Ardie Savea/ Matt Todd
8. Kieran Read/ Nasi Manu/Vito
9. A Smith/T Barlow/ TJ Penara
10. A Cruden / Barrett
11. Savea / Guildford
12. SBW / Ngati
13. Kahui / Fruen
14. B.Smith / G Piutau / Nani-Williams
15. Dagg / Taylor / R Robnson
November 21st 2012 @ 4:58pm
El Gamba said | November 21st 2012 @ 4:58pm | Report comment
No McCaw, No Carter, No chance.
November 21st 2012 @ 5:55am
kingplaymaker said | November 21st 2012 @ 5:55am | Report comment
Maxxlord that’s not really true, any future New Zealand team won’t be vastly more talented or experienced than the current one, whereas a future Australian one may be.
November 21st 2012 @ 11:54pm
Ra said | November 21st 2012 @ 11:54pm | Report comment
KPM you are so right. When you are No1 there is only one place to go, and that’s down. Not all All Blacks are going to be at the top of their game all the time, or be the best player in their position in the world. But come the day, the guy who pulls on the black jersey is an All Black.
John Kirwan once said that to beat the All Blacks a team must bring their A game. The thing is, that the Blacks could play a B or C game and still beat an oppositions A game.
I agree with all the comments here. I’ve written myself about the quality of player the Aussies have to call on over the next two years. It doesn’t matter whether they are sitting 2nd or 5th in the world. They are going to be tough to put away.
I think it’s a dumb argument putting up and arguing over maybe teams, and maybe players who might be lining up at the RWC 2015. What a waste of energy.
Equally dumb is trying to create argument over where O Connor should play. He plays where the coach puts him, and he’s damn good wherever he’s put. I agree with an article El Gamba wrote in June. He wondered whether some scribes in here have played the game. I add, or coached it at anytime.
The All Blacks are not going to improve their position at the top of the pile. But they can improve individual skills, knowledge and strengths, and team skills and combinations.
At the end of the day, the competition is simply: the Kiwi All Blacks vs the World. It doesn’t matter who is wearing that other jersey, or what colour it is. That guy is representing his people, he’s bringing his A game, and we wouldn’t have it any other way.
November 21st 2012 @ 5:58am
richard said | November 21st 2012 @ 5:58am | Report comment
Nice theory, but you are assuming that other countries aren’t doing the same. As maxxlord says, other countries are all doing this, and if you are pinning all your hopes on oz peaking at just the right time, and nz, for example, being over the hill, then you are grasping at straws.
You might not have noticed, but there is no magic bullet for winning a WC, it comes down to luck, as much as talent – last year’s tournament should have taught you that.
November 21st 2012 @ 6:26am
nickoldschool said | November 21st 2012 @ 6:26am | Report comment
All selections go through cycles and some generations are more, or less, talented than others. So what is valid for RD and the wallabies is also true for other nations. Will we be competitive in 2015? lets hope so. Is it a certainty? Not at all.
RD hasnt ‘unearthed’ or discovered any freakish talent no one could see. The Hooper, Cummins, JOC etc were already promising youngsters, did very well at SR then got selected. I still RD’s role in terms of coaching, is first to pick the right guys (we can ague that he sometimes failed to do so) , groom them for SR players to test players and elaborate a coherent game plan to win a trophy.
So what you are saying in this article is, do we have the cattle? you seem to say yes and i quite agree although they are quite a few passengers in this group and not many match winners.
But ultimately you need more than a bunch of names to win RC, RWC or even tests and thats what Deans and his successor will have to do before 2015 and imo its not going to be a walk in the park. The task ahead is still huge.
November 21st 2012 @ 7:04am
kingplaymaker said | November 21st 2012 @ 7:04am | Report comment
nos
JOC hadn’t even started a Super rugby match and Genia only had three starts when Deans brought them into the team and then successfully got them to make the step up which is an achievement.
In terms of cattle, as written above, Super 15 expansion is increasing it: soon it may be ok. But now there is still a shortfall.
The thought of how many players might be unearthed with 6,7,8 let alone 10 teams is striking.
November 21st 2012 @ 7:29am
Justin2 said | November 21st 2012 @ 7:29am | Report comment
And he played JOC out of position at 15 against the abs, brilliant!
November 21st 2012 @ 6:01pm
Kane said | November 21st 2012 @ 6:01pm | Report comment
Was that when Jane leaped right over top of him to regather a kick and score?
November 21st 2012 @ 10:47pm
Ra said | November 21st 2012 @ 10:47pm | Report comment
What do you call out of position Justin? And how do you workout what positions best suit the player or best suit the team plan?
November 21st 2012 @ 9:18am
formeropenside said | November 21st 2012 @ 9:18am | Report comment
no, all that will happen is a lot of poor players will get super contracts. the good players will always get a break – do you really think that if Pocock and JOC had not gone West that the Reds would have ignored them? instead, by those players leaving guys like Nathan Eyres Brown, Joel Rapana, Henari Veratau, etc got a shot and showed they were not up to Super Rugby – at least at that point.
I really do not believe that all these extra teams have actually produced players that would not otherwise have come through. All that has happened is that Qld has lost talented players elsewhere.
November 21st 2012 @ 9:27am
kingplaymaker said | November 21st 2012 @ 9:27am | Report comment
Look at Pyle and Neville for example. Decent players who would not have got a chance. In addition at the Waratahs test quality players cannot get into the 22 and develop their game.
The good players do not always get a break, even if the truly outstanding ones normally do.
Besides many outstanding ones are lost to league as teenagers because they can get a starting position immediately, instead of having to wait.
With more teams they could start immediately and not be lost.
November 21st 2012 @ 10:37am
nickoldschool said | November 21st 2012 @ 10:37am | Report comment
Wasn’t having a go at Deans Kpm. What I mean is that all coaches during their tenure do give their first caps to players, it’s Inherent to the renewal process, some players retire others start. I think any coach would have given JOC, Hooper etc their first cap at one point or another.
Agree that the depth is improving, probably thanks to the expansion in SR. The challenge now is to bring these guys to the ne t level, play consistently good footy etc. I think both of us were talking about Higgers having the same impact with the wallabies that he has in SR. That’s what at stake now IMO.
November 21st 2012 @ 12:42pm
kingplaymaker said | November 21st 2012 @ 12:42pm | Report comment
But think nos, even one more team would mean even more depth, and two, three….
November 21st 2012 @ 7:14am
Hoy said | November 21st 2012 @ 7:14am | Report comment
I will like what I see when those players play consistently well, consistently. And I don’t mean win all the time because that is a little unrealistic. I mean play to their potential every single game. That is my dream for the Wallabies. At the moment people are thinking we are OK after one win in a row. Throw your memory back 11 days and see what I mean. Dreadful play against France followed by a decent win against England does not mean we are in the clear and on our way to a golden age.
Build on the play, and maybe we will be in with a shot in 3 years. Keep as we are right now, and we will go out exactly the same or worse next time.
November 21st 2012 @ 9:48am
jameswm said | November 21st 2012 @ 9:48am | Report comment
Not just that Hoy.
I want to see them playing skilled, smart, team rugby. I’ve seen it maybe once in the last 5 years.
November 21st 2012 @ 11:06am
Markus said | November 21st 2012 @ 11:06am | Report comment
Decent is a good word to describe the win against England, because it was definitely no more than that.
By the 60th minute the Wallabies were trying their best to hand England the win, reverting to kicking the ball back to England’s back three at every opportunity.
Sadly I remember reading this exact article back in 2008, and nothing appears to have changed in the last 4-5 years. Every time it has been one good win followed up by a record defeat.
The Wallabies longest winning streak is still during Deans’ first season, before he fully took over selections and coaching tactics.
November 21st 2012 @ 7:27am
Big Boppa said | November 21st 2012 @ 7:27am | Report comment
Now I have seen it all – been reading about our “lack of cattle” for the last three years, now suddenly we have this brilliant depth which Robbie is credited with. I dont see any players there that have not been identified by a Super team first. All Robbie has had to do is use them which is actually his job to do. I was bemused that some of our best players of late (Hooper, Cummins, Tapuai, Timani etc) are not our first choice and therefore would not have been seen had there not been injuries
November 21st 2012 @ 7:29am
Justin2 said | November 21st 2012 @ 7:29am | Report comment
Correct BP.
November 21st 2012 @ 9:06am
kingplaymaker said | November 21st 2012 @ 9:06am | Report comment
No BB, he’s talking about the future, not the present. The idea is that the pool is improving, not that it is already good enough.
November 21st 2012 @ 7:40am
Allanthus said | November 21st 2012 @ 7:40am | Report comment
The problem with this hypothesis is that it confuses experience (test caps) with ability.
So what if Simmons (23), Dennis (13), Phipps (10), McCabe (19), Horne (14), Vuna (2), Harris (7) are building experience? If they (and a few others listed) are anywhere near the next RWC side then the Wallabies will finish quarter final at best.
I’ve played many hundreds of rounds of golf and i’m still shit on a bad day and average on my best days. I’ll get spanked by a kid who’s only been playing a short time but who has some ability and coaching.
Not wanting to single out anyone unfairly, but John would you much rather go in with McCabe because he’s got 19 tests behind him, or a debutant without that experience but who can create play and pass off both hands?
As KPM suggests, the Wallabies best hopes lie with the next wave of (hopefully better) players who will emerge in the next 1-2 years, blended with the best players from the current squad.
November 21st 2012 @ 9:57am
John Philipson said | November 21st 2012 @ 9:57am | Report comment
I make the assumption, and I think it is a fair one. That as you play more tests at this level you will tend to improve. I am sure that you are much better at golf now, as opposed to when you first handled a club (an extreme analogy but it serves my point).
This is essentially crystal ball gazing – but we need to look forty tests into the future for the group of players i have highlighted – and I think you will see immeasurable improvement.
My final two points are this:
1. The Wallabies (like the Blackcaps) due to a weakness in their domestic game, tend to gain their high level experience at international level (Slipper, Alexander, JOC, TPN) they grow up on the world stage as such. This can be a rollercoaster ride and produce inconsistent performances – but tend to come right in the end.
2. We cannot underestimate how important experience is in Test rugby. Test Rugby need the ability to draw on knowledge and experience on how to win games.
November 21st 2012 @ 11:01am
Allanthus said | November 21st 2012 @ 11:01am | Report comment
Hi John, understand your point but i think they are two separate issues.
Yes, Phipps for example may be a better player for the experience at test level and hopefully will continue to improve with more tests under his belt.
But that still doesn’t make him a quality test halfback…