It’s now only two weeks until the NRL season starts. In this article, I will have a look at some of the contenders, pretenders and dark horses for this year’s NRL premiership.

Contenders: Melbourne Storm

It was on Thursday, April 22, 2010 at 4:00pm that the era of the Melbourne Storm was supposed to end. David Gallop called a press conference at NRL headquarters to announce that the Storm had been found guilty of breaching the salary cap.

The penalties were very severe: two premierships gone, as well as three minor premierships, all competition points earned in 2010 and being forced to play out the rest of the season for nothing. On top of that – a $500,000 fine. Nobody saw it coming.

To the players, it was not the end. Craig Bellamy famously said, two days after the penalties were announced, that “we will fight our way back from here, and that fight starts today”.

Since that very date, the Melbourne Storm fought tooth and nail to win back the respect of their fans, and the NRL public. All of this hard work culminated in a well deserved premiership last year, when they defeated the Bulldogs in the decider last season.

Ironically, they also emulated the Bulldogs in winning the premiership two years after a major salary cap breach threatened to rip the team apart.

In 2002, the Bulldogs were dominating the season and famously put together 17 consecutive victories, and a premiership looked a mere formality, until it was announced in August that year that they were found guilty of breaching the salary cap. This resulted in them being sent from the top of the ladder to the foot of it. But two years later, they were premiers.

Controversy aside, the Melbourne Storm are a champion team and I expect them to once again feature in premiership contention this year.

They have worked very hard for their success over the last two years and their achievements must not be ignored. However, history is against them: no team has been able to successfully defend a title since the Brisbane Broncos of 1992-1993 (1997 and 1998 do not count as the Broncos competed in two separate competitions in those two years).

Perhaps the Melbourne Storm can achieve this with the roster they have.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

I have seen a lot of improvement in this Rabbitohs side ever since Russell Crowe took over a club that was still struggling to return to NRL standard since being re-admitted to the competition in 2002.

Last year was easily their most successful season since 1989 and this was highlighted by Greg Inglis’ switch to fullback from the centres. Inglis first came to fame during the 2005 NRL finals series playing for the Melbourne Storm, in place of an injured Billy Slater.

Since then he has become a regular in the starting sides for Melbourne, Queensland, Australia, and, since 2011, South Sydney.

They may have lost David Taylor but Ben Te’o is his perfect replacement. Te’o brings to the club a lot of experience from his playing days at the Broncos, where he was regularly in the forward pack. He is strong and athletic, and he could be the Rabbitohs’ x-factor they lacked during last year’s finals run.

One of the Rabbitohs’ main weaknesses is concentration. One example of this was in the season opener against the Sydney Roosters last year, when they led by 10 points with three minutes left on the clock, only to be run down in the final minute (they would eventually do the same to the Roosters later in the season).

Souths cannot afford to protect small leads late in matches, as it will lead to them losing more matches like these in the season. They need to take risks, sometimes they will pay off, sometimes they won’t. Their backline is one of the most exciting I have seen in recent years, and they no doubt have freakish tryscoring ability in them.

I’m tipping them to at least reach the penultimate weekend of the season once again. If they can maintain their consistency during the season, perhaps they may be playing for the big prize on the first Sunday in October.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Despite last year’s meek finals exit, I still expect the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles to be very competitive in 2013. They haven’t really lost or gained any new players during the off-season, and the Stewart brothers are still playing good football.

The transition from Des Hasler to Geoff Toovey was smooth, despite the controversial circumstances involving the switch whereby Hasler was sacked in the events following Manly’s 2011 NRL premiership triumph.

Toovey is a Manly man through and through, and the dominance Manly enjoyed under his predecessor still remained and none of it has yet diminished.

One of Manly’s strengths is the fact that they train on the same ground that they play on. This is one of the reasons why they are unbeatable at home for most of the time – they did not lose a match at Brookvale Oval in 2011, when they won the premiership.

Last year, they were beaten by the Storm and the Bulldogs during the season, both of whom eventually contested the Grand Final.

Manly have not missed the finals since 2004 and with the talent that is evenly spread across the squad, I can see them finishing in the higher half of the ladder for the ninth straight year.

Dark Horses: Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks

Cronulla’s impressive recruitment during the off-season started to pay off last year, when they returned to the finals for the first time since 2008. However it was an Achilles injury to Todd Carney which would ruin their involvement in the finals as they were soundly defeated by the Canberra Raiders in Canberra.

They have recruited very aggressively again during the most recent off-season, and this landed them the likes of Chris Heighington, Beau Ryan and Luke Lewis. All three still have at least another two-to-three good years of football left in them and I expect their careers to reach a higher level playing in a side which is well coached by Stuart Flanagan.

However, I feel that last year the Sharks lost a few matches that they should have won, such as last year’s home match against the Raiders, which they lost easily, 36-4.

If the Sharks cannot win matches they are expected to win, then they should not be considered as premiership contenders. This is why I have placed the Sharks into the “dark horses” section.

Sydney Roosters

Roosters fans should be the ones feeling most excited about the upcoming NRL season. It’ll be a fresh start with a new coach and a few big names ascending into Bondi Junction, none more so than Sonny Bill Williams.

When the Roosters continued to recruit players from the Bulldogs, I predicted that SBW would be the next player that the Roosters would attempt to poach from Belmore. It did happen, but in circumstances that were less than satisfactory.

Williams suddenly left the club in July 2008, boarding a plane towards France without telling anybody.

Suddenly, Bulldogs fans started to feel a sense of betrayal (he had signed a five-year contract earlier that year) and to this day they have never forgiven him for deserting the blue and whites. Expect him to be branded a “traitor” if he performs with his new club.

Also on board is Michael Jennings, who will be looking for a fresh start following his controversial departure from Penrith.

He will add speed and agility to the Roosters’ backline, which, apart from Shaun Kenny-Dowall, has lacked tryscoring ability in recent years. Anthony Minichiello will be 33 in May and no doubt he will start to slow down.

Also injuries have gotten the better of him in recent years so don’t expect him to be back to his best form this year.

But, being the most experienced player in the squad, he should continue to make a strong contribution to a relatively young but talented club.

I have a sense of feeling that 2013 will be a big year at Bondi Junction. All that needs to be achieved is a premiership and the Roosters will suddenly be a force again.

Pretenders:The Bulldogs

Past history has shown that defeated grand finalists seem to struggle under the weight of expectation the following season. A strong example of this is Parramatta.

In 2009, they were third-from-bottom on the ladder during the middle of the year, until a late-season resurgence saw them finish eighth on the ladder.

They subsequently made the grand final after knocking off the first, third and second seeds in that order, before losing to the Melbourne Storm in the big match (that premiership among two that are not counted in official Melbourne Storm records).

Subsequently, Parramatta have failed to return to the finals.

In that same year, the Roosters were wooden spooners, but in 2010 they turned things around on and off the field to make an unexpected run to the decider.

They also haven’t returned to the finals since. In 2011, the Warriors made the grand final after being thumped by the Broncos in the first week. In 2012, they flopped and it cost Brian McClennan his job.

If past history is an indication, maybe the Bulldogs will struggle this season, but with a superstar fullback in Ben Barba, I don’t expect this to be the case. However, the bottom line is that they just weren’t good enough when it mattered most last year.

Wests Tigers

Many NRL experts had predicted the Wests Tigers would win the premiership at the beginning of 2012. However, what unfolded would be a season of disappointment as player feuds and poor form led to them finishing outside the Top Eight.

This ultimately cost Tim sheens his job, and cost the club a lot of experience with Chris Heighington and Beau Ryan packing their bags for Cronulla.

But now they have a new coach in Mick Potter. He won’t take them to the premiership in 2013, but he can at least rebuild a club that was severely damaged by the failures of 2012. Perhaps if they had beaten the Bulldogs in Round 24 last year, the Tigers would not exist in this section at all.

They lost many matches that they should have won last year, wins that could have had them playing finals last year.

They must maintain consistency throughout the season and not produce patches of good form and bad form. The slow start to last year proved very costly, including a loss to the Rabbitohs after the Tigers led 16-4 with five minutes remaining in round five.

Tigers fans have been wondering over the summer what could have been…

Wooden Spoon Contenders: Penrith Panthers

2012 was not a good year for Penrith, as the loss of Matt Elliott and Steve Georgallis was felt across the club.

In came Ivan Cleary, who had just coached the Warriors to the NRL Grand Final. Cleary was never going to do the same at Penrith, as he attempted to maintain stability.

But instead, the Panthers’ 2012 season followed on from a disappointing 2011, and they finished second last on the ladder, just ahead of Parramatta.

The club has not been helped by the departures of local products Luke Lewis and Michael Jennings, and their only big gain is James Segeyaro from the Cowboys.

Not one player from the 2003 premiership team remains at the foot of the mountains today.

Expect the Panthers to continue to struggle this season and finish last on the ladder, thus continuing a pattern of winning a wooden spoon every six years (after last placings in 2001 and 2007).

St. George Illawarra Dragons

I would hate to think that the club I have followed for a very long time, the Dragons, would be contenders for the wooden spoon this season.

And I am very surprised to see this team among a lot of NRL experts’ contenders for the dreaded prize, given they missed the finals last year by just one victory.

Steve Price will be feeling the heat this season, given he was so close to being forced to step aside in favour of Craig Bellamy for 2014. Many markets are having him short priced as the first coach to be sacked.

A lot of big names, namely Ben Hornby and Dean Young, have moved on, and the Dragons haven’t really recruited any new big names apart from Josh Drinkwater, a rookie from Manly.

He could be to the Dragons what Daly Cherry-Evans was to Manly. When he first came onto the scene in 2011, he went on to become one of the youngest ever halfbacks to feature in a premiership team.

But don’t expect the same from Drinkwater, though he comes from that very club. The club will continue to struggle as they attempt to move on from the successful Wayne Bennett era which netted two minor premierships and the premiership in 2010.

But they have recruited Gerard Beale from the Broncos, as a belated replacement for Darius Boyd, whose skill from the back was the backbone of the Dragons’ success between 2009 and 2011.

Tyson Frizell from the Sharks should also really ignite his career in the red and white, whilst questions will continue to be asked about whether Jamie Soward can return to his best form this season.

Other mentions: Brisbane Broncos

The once almighty club just managed to make the finals last year in the first year of the post-Darren Lockyer era, but that will be as good as it gets for them. Don’t expect them to feature in September.

North Queensland Cowboys

The northerners did very well to feature in the finals yet again last year, and I expect them to once again feature in September. Contract talks concerning Johnathan Thurston may prove to be the biggest distraction, but for now he should just let his football do the talking.

Parramatta Eels

The Parramatta Eels have a new coach and I expect him to bring a new attitude to a club which was severely damaged by the weight of expectation last year. Expect to finally see the best of Chris Sandow this year.

Newcastle Knights

There’s no excuse for this club not to make the finals. Their veterans and recruits have had a year to adjust now, Beau Scott will be a welcome addition and Kurt Gidley will finally return after injury ruined his 2012 season (and that of the club).

Canberra Raiders

The boys from the capital can be very inconsistent. In a year where a lot is expected from them, they underperform. In a year where little is expected from them, they overperform.

They have not made the finals in consecutive years since 2003-4. Don’t expect the Raiders to feature in September this season.

Gold Coast Titans
The loss of Scott Prince will hurt the club a lot, but they have recruited Dave Taylor as they try to build one of the most dangerous forward packs in the competition. Though I don’t expect the Titans to play finals this year, they should aim for a mid-table finish of between 9th and 12th.

New Zealand Warriors
Another club that I expect to see struggle this year, though they have recruited a very good coach in Matthew Elliott.

He is well known for producing local talent at NRL clubs and he is expected to do the same in Auckland.

The Warriors will probably finish near the foot of the ladder once again, but their squad is too strong for them to even finish down there.

And so, what a NRL season it promises to be. Let the games begin.