NSW Waratahs coach Michael Cheika (Image: Supplied)
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Our series on the chances of the Australian Super Rugby for 2013 continues, with perennial under-achievers the NSW Waratahs.
In
O Atkins, M Hooper, L Timani (EPS), G Hart (EPS), P Betham, M Hodge, C Crawford
Out
Dean Mumm, Dan Vickerman, Rocky Elsom, Chris Alcock, Sarel Pretorius, Brackin Karauria-Henry, Daniel Halangahu, Tevita Metuisela, Nathan Trist, Lotu Taukeiaho, Atieli Pakalani
Season chances
The Waratahs have finally had the cleanout they needed, including players and staff alike. Some serious dead wood have been detached from the structure and how they rebuild in 2013 is the key to how the Waratahs perform over the coming years.
I suspect they will improve on the lacklustre 2012 season, however their season is heavily reliant on some injury-prone individuals.
Palu, Poluta-Nau, Barnes and Horne sit in core positions for the Tahs, but to date have not stayed fit long enough to give the team some continuity. This will have to change (or the players in these positions will) if they hold any hope of bumping the ACT Brumbies and Queensland Reds in 2013.
Predicted finish – conference third – overall ninth
Key player
Players love having a big man on the field that will run hard and tackle even harder. For past seasons the Tahs have relied on Palu for this inspiration, despite his limited game time. This torch has now been passed to Sitaleki Timani.
He will need to continue his bustling form to give the Tahs players the inspiration needed. He has been outstanding in the Wallabies jersey and I expect him to improve in the coming season. He will need to continue to deliver his hard running and jarring hits to help inspire the sky blue to have some self-belief.
Up and comer
Peter Betham’s form in New Zealand’s ITM Cup has people sitting up and taking notice. I had written him off two years ago after drifting between the Brumbies, Melbourne Rebels and Waratahs. But if he can translate this ITM form to Super Rugby, and the coaching staff utilise him in a similar fashion to Digby Ioane, he could be just what they need to become a more attacking team.
Best buy
Michael Hooper became the prince of Australian Rugby in 2012 and is already looking to dethrone the king of the breakdown, David Pocock. If the Tahs can utilise his assets, he will continue to develop as a player and as an on-field leader.
2013 is a defining year for Hooper and I hope he doesn’t drown in the sea of sky blue, like so many other big signings have in the past.
Biggest loss
I don’t think the Waratahs lost any player who didn’t need to be let go, or could be adequately replaced. Vickerman was a great player and source of motivation, but was not in career best form.
The same can be said of Elsom, who never showed the Australian public what he showed the Irish with his time at Leinster.
Best team
1. Benn Robinson
2. Tatafu Poluta-Nau
3. Sekope Kepu
4. Sitaleki Timani
5. Kane Douglas
6. Dave Dennis
7. Michael Hooper
8. Wycliff Palu
9. Brendan McKibbin
10. Brendan Foley
11. Drew Mitchell
12. Adam Ashley-Cooper
13. Rob Horne
14. Israel Folau
15. Berrick Barnes
16. Damien Fitzpatrick
17. Paddy Ryan
18. Greg Peterson
19. Lopeti Timani
20. Grayson Hart
21. Tom Kingston
22. Peter Betham
Other squad
23. John Ulugia
24. Jeremy Tilse
25. Ollie Atkins
26. Pat McCutheon
27. Michael Hodge
28. Cam Crawford
29. Tom Carter
30. Lachie Turner
Extended playing squad (EPS)
31. Luke Holmes – hooker
32. Jed Holloway – lock
33. Matt Lucas – scrum half
34. Ben Volavola – five-eighth
35. Sam Lane – five-eighth
- Explore:
- NSW Waratahs, Rugby Union, Super Rugby
January 8th 2013 @ 6:53am
nickoldschool said | January 8th 2013 @ 6:53am | Report comment
Some big calls there with AAC at 12 and both Turner and Carter not in the best 22.
I still think a fit Turner has to be in the back three. Again not much experience and depth at 9-10 and am not convinced McKibbin-Foley are the duo we need to win the aussie conference. Its good to have speedsters/try-scorers like Mitchell, Turner or hopefully Folau but its sad we dont have a Lealiifano, Cooper, JOC, Genia, Toomua to create things beforehand.
Funny I walwasy the same feeling when i look at tahs roster: some individual quality but dont have the impression we have ‘a group’ there. Hope Cheika can prove me wrong though.
January 8th 2013 @ 8:06am
Who Needs Melon said | January 8th 2013 @ 8:06am | Report comment
I agree. Should have no problems at all with the forwards (although perhaps bench forwards a bit of a weakness?) but the backs in particular just don’t seem to fit right. Having said that, I think I’ve said the same thing about every team so far (noting we haven’t seen the Reds article yet*). The reason is we have a real dearth of really good, specialist 10s and 12s in Australia at the moment. Looking forward to the guys who AREN’T really on the radar showing up and surprising us this year.
* edit: just noticed the Reds article has appeared. Will read it now.
January 8th 2013 @ 9:59am
nickoldschool said | January 8th 2013 @ 9:59am | Report comment
Did you feel the same about the Brumbies? I thought they had a pretty well balanced and dense group of players. This morning I really feel the Tahs are now the third Aussie franchise in terms of roster. Maybe we are/ I am underestimating the impact A guy like Hooper may have but am just very sceptical about the influence our 9-10 can have on the game. Hope am wrong.
January 8th 2013 @ 12:36pm
Who Needs Melon said | January 8th 2013 @ 12:36pm | Report comment
I didn’t like the suggested Brumbies centre combination (McCabe and Smith). Both solid, no-nonsense players but I think they could really use someone like Tapuai or JOC there – i.e. more of a second play maker and someone elusive, with a better passing and kicking game, etc.
The other alternative for the Brumbies would be to play either Toomua or Lealifano at 12. Although they fit my 2nd playmaker description, it would be a shame for Lealifano to lose the 10 jersey – I really want to see more of him there and provide the Wallabies another viable option. And I see Toomua more of a pure 10. Not sure he has the pace or fleetness of foot or subtlety or something for a 12.
Maybe we will see a bit of mixing it up and horses for courses with the Brumbies early on. Don’t get me wrong – I still rate them. In fact I see a tight tussle between the Tahs, Brumbies and Reds this year,… then daylight before the Force and Rebels I’m afraid.
January 8th 2013 @ 11:56am
jameswm said | January 8th 2013 @ 11:56am | Report comment
I think at lock Melon, the Tahs bench forwards are a bit of a weakness. Ulugia had an excellent season (I’d have him ahead of Fitzpatrick), Paddy Ryan is a very good bench prop, and LTimani on the bench or may take Dennis’s starting spot.
January 8th 2013 @ 1:48pm
jeznez said | January 8th 2013 @ 1:48pm | Report comment
WNM, I don’t think the bench forwards are weak. Don’t know they are named exactly right upa above. Fitzpatrick will only take Ulugia’s spot if John’s throwing remains as weak as it has and if Fitz can prove he is over the injuries he has had the last couple of years.
Peterson will have to show something to make the bench otherwise Dennis and Lopeti Timani will cover 6 and the second row between them and McCutcheon will be the other loosie on the bench.
Ryan and Timani are strong and will be challenging to start and probably for the Wallabies over the course of the season.
The back line is massively up for debate and that will be the most interesting thing to see.
January 8th 2013 @ 6:55am
p.Tah said | January 8th 2013 @ 6:55am | Report comment
Interesting that you don’t mention Folau in the discussion just in the team.
9th overall. I think you’re being a tad pessimistic, but for once it’s nice for the team not to be overly pumped up.
January 8th 2013 @ 10:05am
Selector said | January 8th 2013 @ 10:05am | Report comment
I am very excited about the Folau factor and I have always wanted to see him play union, especially now with his extra kicking abilities. In the attacking 22 I would be slotting BB into 10, to set up for the cross kick to Folau, similar to the Larkham/Tuqiri style tactic. Even if they know it;s coming, it would still be very hard to stop.
January 8th 2013 @ 1:24pm
Kane said | January 8th 2013 @ 1:24pm | Report comment
I’d back Jane to stop it, hell I can’t remember the last time he didn’t catch a kick he contested
January 8th 2013 @ 1:43pm
jeznez said | January 8th 2013 @ 1:43pm | Report comment
Am a massive fan of Jane’s aerial ability but Folau was good in the air before he went to AFL and stands ten cms taller. I suspect he can jump a lot higher and has added reach too. Jane is currently the world’s best challenging or receiving the high ball but Izzy may knock him off that perch.
January 8th 2013 @ 2:15pm
kingplaymaker said | January 8th 2013 @ 2:15pm | Report comment
jeznez Folau was the outstanding player in the air in league before he left, and that was before two years of dedicated training in a sport revolving around this aspect in the AFL. If the Wallabies 10 just kicked the ball over to Folau’s wing all game wouldn’t that be enough to beat the Lions? How could they stop it?
January 8th 2013 @ 3:50pm
Markus said | January 8th 2013 @ 3:50pm | Report comment
You’ve now got me wondering why the in-goal bomb has never really been used in rugby as much as it has been in league.
The list of possible outcomes of such a tactic are:
- Try
- 5m scrum (opposition knocks on or takes ball back over tryline)
- 22m dropout, with possession reclaimed about 40m out (after kick return)
- mark and free kick, with possession reclaimed in a lineout 20-30m out
- 105m runaway try against the run of play (fairly unlikely)
So unlike league where an in-goal mark would mean possession for the opposition 20m out, even a mark is possession back to the attacker, which gives the play even better odds/lower risk in rugby than in league.
January 9th 2013 @ 5:47pm
jeznez said | January 9th 2013 @ 5:47pm | Report comment
I suspect it is about certainty of scoring vs certainty of retaining possession. All those options of getting the ball back pale into insignificance compared to scoring itself and most of the time you’d back yourself to score if you can hang on to the pill in the attacking zone.
In RL if you are on the last you are going to kick regardless, once you’ve made it into the attacking zone it becomes even more attractive option to put that attacking kick in rather than keep it in hand on the last in the hopes of a missed tackle.
January 8th 2013 @ 6:46pm
WQ said | January 8th 2013 @ 6:46pm | Report comment
Izzy looked ok chasing attacking kicks where everything is in favour of the chaser!
Not so sure he looked as good as Jane when receiving kicks?
January 8th 2013 @ 8:05am
Red Kev said | January 8th 2013 @ 8:05am | Report comment
A Wallaby pack when at full strength makes them a real danger team, but their backline still looks shaky, no-one is sure what a decent Waratahs backline looks like (partly because they move around so much it is like musical chairs, and partly because it is so long since anyone has seen a decent Waratah backline).
January 8th 2013 @ 12:00pm
jameswm said | January 8th 2013 @ 12:00pm | Report comment
Yeah Barnes and Foley can play 10-12-15, AAC plays anywhere from 11-15. Someone has to get the balance right.
My best Tahs XV does not have Rob Horne in it. AAC played well for the Wallabies at 13, and we have ample back 3 players in Mitchell, Folau, Turner, Betham and Kingston, many of whom can play 15 (plus Barnes and Foley).
I’d also start Hart at 9.
We saw glimpses that reminded us that a fit and with-mojo Barnes is still a good footballer. maybe he’d do less silly kicking at 12. Foley is a challenge the defence type of 10.
Still, as we all know, the big question marks are at 9-10. I’d start with Hart-Foley there and give them a few games to ckick.
January 8th 2013 @ 8:51am
Chui said | January 8th 2013 @ 8:51am | Report comment
Agree with a lot of the previous posts.
9, 10 & 12 seems to be the problem, and has been for some time. A bit of stability would be nice.
If fit, the forwards will be fine, but there’s the crux – “if fit”. Mind you, I can’t see Cheika puting up with unfit players for long.
Sitaleki Tomani will be starting the year with Super 15 fitness rather than Japanese fitness. There were some good signs Lopeti would be dangerous if he could contribute for longer periods. He could prove to be a good backup/tandem with Palu.
At this stage surely Turner is a better option than Folau.
I just want to walk away from games thinking they had a red hot crack at it. I haven’t felt that way for ages.
January 8th 2013 @ 11:37pm
Parra said | January 8th 2013 @ 11:37pm | Report comment
The problem with Turner is that in the modern era the back three have to bring so much more to the game. They have a much bigger skill-set. Turner is a good finisher and is fast (although I don’t think his ‘fastest man in all codes’ title of a few years ago is setting him apart from other speedsters in the game at the moment). He has very few strings to his bow. He doesn’t kick, he doesn’t create and interplay well. Think of the weaving runs Mitchell is capable of down the sideline turning people inside-out then feeding another speedster. There’s a classic example of this from a Wallabies vs. Barbs game at Tickenham ca. 2010.
If a player has a limited skill-set then the skill(s) have to be exceptional. Tiquiri when playing at his peak. Ioane. Lomu.
January 8th 2013 @ 9:01am
B-Rock said | January 8th 2013 @ 9:01am | Report comment
Would need another injury crisis to finish 9th
Best pack by far of the Aussie sides – top 4 overall IMO. Effectively the incumbent wallabies pack without Poey – Hoops not a bad replacement however.
Key weakness remains at 9 and 10 – will be important how Foley develops here. Need to put BB @ 12 to assist when the inexperienced combo of McKibbin/Hart and Foley get stuck. AAC goes to 15.
Would have to have Turner on the bench at least – versatility across the back three, I would assume he is well ahead of Betham in the pecking order.
My team:
1. Benn Robinson
2. Tatafu Poluta-Nau
3. Sekope Kepu
4. Sitaleki Timani
5. Kane Douglas
6. Dave Dennis
7. Michael Hooper
8. Wycliff Palu
9. Brendan McKibbin
10. Brendan Foley
11. Drew Mitchell
12. Berrick Barnes
13. Rob Horne
14. Israel Folau
15. Adam Ashley-Cooper
January 8th 2013 @ 9:35am
cm said | January 8th 2013 @ 9:35am | Report comment
I agree, B-Rock. Any team that plays AAC at 12 is obviously short of talent, and would condemn the poor man to yet another season away from his best position(s), 13 or 15 IMHO.
Swapping BB and AAC makes sense, although I was pleased to see the stability BB gave the Wallabies at 15.
Nor am I convinced about McKibbin (Wallaby back-up to Brett Sheehan is not a good look, given their age difference). But I’m keen to see Foley get a red-hot go at 10. I think he could be inspirational, and his Sevens experience suggests he’ll be good at setting up his outside man.
January 8th 2013 @ 9:39am
Jutsie said | January 8th 2013 @ 9:39am | Report comment
Yeah its a quandary, barnes is their best option at 12 but at the same time I would like to see him play at 15 as that should be the only position he plays for the wobbs.
They dont have many other ball playing 12 options.
January 8th 2013 @ 10:00am
Selector said | January 8th 2013 @ 10:00am | Report comment
I started barnes at 15, as he was fantastic under the highball and although he is not your Dagg style attacking fullback, he did offer a lot at the back for the Wallabies.
January 8th 2013 @ 1:00pm
jameswm said | January 8th 2013 @ 1:00pm | Report comment
Or options at 12 at all. I don’t think AAC or Horne can do it. All I can see is Lane at 10 and Foley at 12.
A world class 9 or 10 would be nice, but then the Tahs thought they had that with Pretorius.
And on that note, can they invent a few new surnames in South Africa? They’re all called Pretorius, de Villiers or a handful of others.
January 8th 2013 @ 11:02am
Markus said | January 8th 2013 @ 11:02am | Report comment
The best pack for the first 40 minutes at least. Dennis, Hooper and maybe Palu are the only 80 minute players in that pack, although Palu is only ever one tackle away from being out for the season.
January 8th 2013 @ 5:36pm
B-Rock said | January 8th 2013 @ 5:36pm | Report comment
I would say first 60mins – Timani and Douglas put in some good performances well into the 2nd half for the wallabies this yr. The issue will be lack of depth in the forwards for injuries and fatigue. Saying that, the Tahs are no the only Oz SR team to have issues here.
January 9th 2013 @ 11:58am
Markus said | January 9th 2013 @ 11:58am | Report comment
They did, but then did not really back it up the following week. Douglas’ best performance was followed with a very lacklustre one, and Timani I believe had 1-2 weeks off nursing a minor injury after his first 80 minute performance.
That the Waratahs ended up being the bulk of the starting Wallabies pack could end up counting against them this year, as they will not have had the amout of off-season fitness training that other Aus SR forwards have had.
I agree that lack of forward depth will be a problem for every Aus team.
For the Brumbies, Tahs and Reds it looks to be the second row, and the front row for the Force.
As for the Rebels, I think they will be praying that not a single one of their starting pack goes down during the year, as they are looking very thin across the park.
January 8th 2013 @ 9:04am
Will Sinclair said | January 8th 2013 @ 9:04am | Report comment
Michael Hooper will be an asset to the Waratahs, but surely the “best buy” is coach Michael Cheika.
He has exactly the sort of no bull sh*t, no spin, no favours attitude that an underachieving side like the Waratahs needs.
I expect him to improve the side immeasurably, and I think they are genuine finals contenders (injury permitting, which is unfortunately an issue for all Aussie teams given the lesser player depth in this country).
January 8th 2013 @ 10:31am
Blinky Bill of Bellingen said | January 8th 2013 @ 10:31am | Report comment
Hear, hear!!
January 8th 2013 @ 9:28am
Christian said | January 8th 2013 @ 9:28am | Report comment
I think our lynch pin, McKibbin, is the weakest point in that squad. I hope that he really treats these games with the importance they deserve and surprises me.
And, unless I am mistaken, #10 is Bernard Foley and not Brendan Foley.
January 8th 2013 @ 9:29am
Sailosi said | January 8th 2013 @ 9:29am | Report comment
I hope Volavola is given a chance at some stage during the year. I’d start with Peter Betham, I think he is a real talent but this could be his last chance, he has to grab it. Good to see Turner not in your best 22. He should never be allowed near the matchday squad ever again.
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January 8th 2013 @ 9:32am
Jutsie said | January 8th 2013 @ 9:32am | Report comment
I’d prefer a halves combo of hart and foley tbh.
January 8th 2013 @ 10:34am
Blinky Bill of Bellingen said | January 8th 2013 @ 10:34am | Report comment
Agree completely.
Hart has impressed me thus far. McKibbon seems to be a bit of a scatter brain, somewhat like the Rebels 9.
January 8th 2013 @ 9:35am
Rob9 said | January 8th 2013 @ 9:35am | Report comment
The Reds and Tahs should do a trade of a few 12’s and 13’s. Considering the roster the Tahs have, I agree with your midfield (AAC/Horne) but you’d ideally have AAC and Horne in different teams altogether to allow them the opportunity to play in their strongest positions (13).
I’d still find room for Turner in the back 3 though. That’d involve moving Mitchell (or Turner) to fullback, Barnes to 10, Foley to the bench and Betham out of the 22.
I know there are a lot of pessimistic Tahs fans out there after enduring some very bland rugby with a team full of Wallabies but I think this team is ready to deliver under Cheika. It’ll be interesting to see what Falou brings to their backline. I think they’ll leapfrog the Brumbies in the Aussie conference this year and should go a bit higher than the 9th position that you’ve put them at overall.
January 8th 2013 @ 9:58am
Selector said | January 8th 2013 @ 9:58am | Report comment
Hey Rob9
Not sure if you got to watch any ITM Cup last year, but the way they utilised Betham, I was struggling not to put him in the starting 15. He reminded me of Digby the way he roamed the field, dominated in contact and found plenty of space up the middle of the park.
I struggled putting together the Tahs teams, I was looking at several combo’s but I honestly think if AAC is given time there he can perfect his game in that tighter space and he has decent hands when required. Still unsure on Horne though.
January 8th 2013 @ 10:12am
Rob9 said | January 8th 2013 @ 10:12am | Report comment
I did catch a bit of 2012 ITM but mustn’t have caught any Tasman games. Here’s hoping he can carry his form over into SR if given the opportunity this year.
Agree with your midfield and agree AAC has the potential to be a solid 12 if given the opportunity and not used as the Mr Fix-it which he has been for his entire SR and Wallaby career. I too am unsure of Horne but unfortunately he’s probably Australia’s 2nd 13. It’s also unfortunate that our best 13 (AAC) is playing in the same SR side. Horne just can’t play anywhere else while AAC can plug a hole from 12-15. As I said, in a perfect world for Australian rugby these guys would be playing for different teams to allow themselves the opportunity to play all of their rugby in their best positions. It’s a similar conundrum to the oversupply of 12’s at the Reds.
January 8th 2013 @ 12:06pm
jameswm said | January 8th 2013 @ 12:06pm | Report comment
Sorry selector, there’s no way AAC is a 12. He has to play 13 or 15.
I don’t see why so may have Horne starting at 13, does no one remember last season?
AAC is the starting Wallabies 13 and was playing well He has to have first crack at 13 for the Tahs.
I just hope Cheika gets the selections and tactics right, because he’s supposed to improve attitude. They also need to learn how to attack and how to use their forwards to attack better. I mean seriously, what other pack can boast the depth of ball runners as Palu, TPN, Kepu, Hooper and both Timanis? Douglas isn’t the worst either, and a big hitter in defence.
They need to use these ball runners running off each other rather than as the obvious one-off hitups that Deans uses.
January 8th 2013 @ 3:42pm
Terry Kidd said | January 8th 2013 @ 3:42pm | Report comment
Thank you Jameswn … I cannot believe the numbers of you guys who want to play the current Wallaby 13 out of position, FFS leave AAC at 13. Likewise BB performed well at FB for the Wallabies, let him play there. Bernard Foley has talent …. give him a chance to be the 10 most Tahs fans have been craving. Halfback … let Hart and McKibbin decide it thru desire and form. Wings …. Mitchell is a lay down misere for 11, let Betham and Folau battle it out for 14.
Deadwood gone …. Turner and “Carthorse” Carter.
12 is a problem, as it seems to be for most of the Oz franchises. In absence of outstanding candidates I would give Horne the opportunity first and if it doesn’t work, I would look for another solution without changing other players from their current positions.
The pack is fine and will be easily the most physical in the Oz conference.
Tahs will battle it out with the Reds for 1st & 2nd
January 8th 2013 @ 4:03pm
Rob9 said | January 8th 2013 @ 4:03pm | Report comment
I agree it’d be ideal to keep players in their best positions (which 13 represents for AAC). But the Tahs have bought themselves into a bit of a hole with the roster they’ve put together. When they picked up AAC they should have let Horne go and gone after one of the x3 12’s at the Reds or a quality 10 to put Barnes at 12.
The problem with Horne at 12 is the ball will rarely make it out to the assets they’d have outside of him (AAC, Mitchell, Falou etc). He just doesn’t pass. A 12/13 AAC/Horne combo gives them the option for the back 3 running off AAC’s hip while his passing game allows those outside backs to be brought into the game. Horne can still be utilised doing what he does best as a hard ball running option a little wider.
It by no means represents a perfect scenario for the Tahs but given what they’ve got it’s probably the best use of their resources.
January 21st 2013 @ 4:34pm
PJ said | January 21st 2013 @ 4:34pm | Report comment
Terry Kidd you dont watch alot of Rugby mate – Carter is by far tge best 12 in the Waratahs squad and possibly in Aust Rugby if Carter is a “Carthorse”how would you describe McCabe & Faingaa?? Both of who seem only to be able to crash ball and miss a lot of tackles. Carter will start at 12 against the Reds. Locked in already
January 8th 2013 @ 4:04pm
jameswm said | January 8th 2013 @ 4:04pm | Report comment
Yeah I dunno on Barnes though. He was only playing 15 for the Wallabies as a fill-in, and we don’t really have anyone else for 12. We’ve got enough cover at 15, and I think Barnes would be valuable at 12 next to Foley. Barnes is also a very good tackler.
To be honest our only other optuion at 12 is Foley, with Sam Lane at 10.
January 8th 2013 @ 5:01pm
Fin said | January 8th 2013 @ 5:01pm | Report comment
Fill-in? Barnes will be the prefered 15 for the wallabies in 2013. He and AAC are the only 2 that seem capable under the high ball.
Give Turner a crack at 12- it worked well fr McCabe at super Rugby level and allows AAC to stay at 13, Barnes will be able to take on the second playmaker role from fullback.
IMO we should put Hart and Foley together in the halves, give them the whole season and give them a chance to built a combination, they’re both still young enough to make a long term partnership.
And Hooper as captain.
Tahs will win the conferene this season.
January 8th 2013 @ 6:41pm
James Vaughan said | January 8th 2013 @ 6:41pm | Report comment
January 9th 2013 @ 9:22am
Selector said | January 9th 2013 @ 9:22am | Report comment
I would be happy for that result TK, I just think Horne would offer less than even McCabe does in the 12 position, but very happy for him to prove me wrong.
12 is certainly the delemia, as they will need a bigger 12 if they play Foley there, or one of the EPS 5/8′s, so it doesn’t leave them with many options.
What are Kingston’s ball skills like??