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Except that it just isn’t that easy. When I answered The Roar’s call for a Super Rugby prediction article for today with “yeah, possibly”, I should’ve elaborated, in hindsight.
There wasn’t going to be much stopping me from physically writing the article, but that’s the easy bit. Have a look back at your tipping in 2012 for evidence on how tough a competition it’s becoming to predict.
I know my own form was shi… just not very good.
The only thing I can say with any confidence is that Super Rugby in 2013 will be a battle of attrition. Injuries both serious and inconvenient will hamper some leading teams at some point this season, just as they have in most seasons prior.
Just think how different the Stormers’ season might’ve been with Schalk Burger on board all year, and likewise the Brumbies with no curse attached to their no.10 jersey.
Anyway, while also juggling some serious cricket watching over the last few weeks, I’ve also cast a bit of an eye over the Super Rugby squads for the coming season to see what I can come up with in the way of predictions.
Let me clear up one thing straight away, though. You’re not going to see one single nominated team as who I think will take out the crown.
The biggest battle within the Super Rugby conference system is just qualifying for the playoffs, so let’s be a little bit more realistic and look at things conference by conference.
South Africa
While the expectation was that many a displaced Lion would head to Port Elizabeth and kit-up with the Southern Kings, who were preferred instead of a team in the biggest city in the Republic, that hasn’t exactly happened.
Rather, the Stormers and Bulls look to be the major benefactors of the strange decision of the South African Rugby Union, with both sides picking up several Lions players each. The Stormers may have come up trumps, too, landing the natural talents of flyhalf Elton Jantjies on loan from the Lions, for what I’m sure they hope is only one year.
The Stormers have long been one of the best defensive sides in the competition, but their attack has also lacked punch. There’s no doubt Jantjies will add spark here, and he, along with the return from injury for the inspirational Burger should see the Stormers topping the conference, for mine.
The Sharks were something of surprise packets in 2012, storming home from mid-table with two rounds to go to snare the final play-off spot, and ultimately find their way through to the final in Hamilton.
They won’t be surprising anyone in 2013, and the fulltime return of Francois Steyn gives them an imposing midfield presence they didn’t always have last year. I think the Sharks can finish second, and should play in back-to-back playoff series.
The Bulls and Cheetahs will be fighting for third in South Africa again, I think, though I suspect the Bulls will again prove too strong. The Cheetahs play a wonderful type of rugby that everyone loves, but have generally struggled to take points in the local derbies. Waratah fans will be keeping an eye on scrumhalf, Sarel Pretorius, who has returned after an ill-fated overseas marquee stint in Sydney.
The Kings are destined for the final place in the South African conference, and are being tipped by all and sundry to run 15th overall. It shapes as a tough season ahead.
New Zealand
Without doubt the hardest conference to pick. Put the five teams into a hat, and you could pull them out in five different orders and get five no-less plausible final standings.
Last year, four teams remained in finals contention right up until the penultimate round, and it’s not unlikely for that to be the case again in 2013. Except that this year, it might be all five teams, with John Kirwan leading something of revival at the Blues, which in turn is making predictions even harder than they already are.
I think the Chiefs and Crusaders will remain the top two teams, but I reckon I could change my mind on the order 18 times between now and the first week of the finals. Both are largely intact from last year, while at the same time covering a rather big loss.
The Crusaders might hold the advantage here. They’ve been readying themselves for times when they’ll be without Richie McCaw for years now, and look well placed to cope with his pending sabbatical.
They certainly lose nothing in the captaincy stakes with Kieran Read, and young Matt Todd, an All-Black in his own right, is a more than handy fill-in in the no.7 jersey. Luke Whitelock will ensure the competition is fierce, too.
For the Chiefs, while the loss of Sonny Bill Williams is somewhat lessened by the return from injury of Richard Kahui at centre, they still have to find an effective no.12 from the likes of Gareth Anscombe or possibly Robbie Robinson. They also have to find a new try-scoring machine to replace departed crowd-favourite prop, Sona Taumalolo.
On paper, the Highlanders are probably best equipped to knock either of these top two teams down a peg. Any team that can add 329 Super Rugby appearances, as the Highlanders have done with the recruitment of Ma’a Monu, Tony Woodcock, and the evergreen Brad Thorn, deserves to be taken seriously.
The Highlanders were a handy team on the rise in 2013, but a massive boost in experience could well have them taking the next step into the Finals. If any one country is going to have three teams in the finals this year, I expect it to be New Zealand.
The Hurricanes were written off this time last year, but that definitely won’t be the case in 2013, even with the loss of Cory Jane for the season. Likewise the Blues. The parallels between the rebuilding of the Blues under Kirwan, and the Waratahs under Michael Cheika are clear, but so are the expectations for improvement.
Australia
The ‘unknown unknowns’ around the British and Irish Lions Series, both in terms of the impact on Super Rugby squads in the lead-up, and the possibly injury fall-out in the aftermath, makes the Australian conference something of a lottery, too.
To the point where I’m not sure we’ll see two Australian finalists in 2013.
I think most pundits have it right so far tipping the Reds and Brumbies to fight it out for top spot, and I expect them to be the top two in the Australian conference, but again in no particular order.
For both teams, the first month to six weeks will have a big bearing. The Reds cannot sit back and wait for the return of Will Genia, and must start securing competition points from the outset. Similarly, the Brumbies can’t take their time to work out their preferred style of play in 2013.
Both teams to be firing from the start, which is going to difficult, given they play each other in round one, and they also need to maximise their returns when playing the other Australian teams.
All eyes are focused and pens are poised on the performance of the Waratahs. If Michael Cheika is able to achieve even half of what he’s said he wants to, the flood of commentary and push for sainthood could become unbearable.
That said, just as New Zealand needs a strong Blues, Australian rugby needs a strong Waratahs. In the toughest sporting market in Australia, there is no worse sight than a quarter-full Sydney Football Stadium. ‘Tahs fans have to want to come to the rugby.
I expect improvement from both the Melbourne Rebels and Western Force, but they’re both probably a few years off finals calculations. Of the two, the Rebels are well equipped to give the ‘Tahs a fright, and on their day, they’re capable of beating anyone.
A pass mark this year would be for both to be playing attractive rugby, drawing big crowds in Melbourne and Perth respectively, and doing Australian rugby a favour by knocking off some inter-conference heavyweights.