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Preview of AFL Round 12 matches (all times AEST).
FRIDAY, June 14
Carlton v Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium 7.50pm
Head to Head: Blues 102 Hawks 57
Last clash: Round 14 2012 – Hawks 18.12 (120) bt Blues 10.10 (70) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Blues $4.00 Hawks $1.25
Sportingbet: Blues $4.15 Hawks $1.24
Hawthorn are aiming for their 10th consecutive win and hold a psychological edge over the Blues who haven’t beaten the Hawks since 2005. While Carlton boast an in-form forward after Jarrad Waite’s seven-goal haul against Essendon, the Blues faded badly in a five-point loss and need to lift against the Hawks who will be well rested after a bye. Carlton regain tagger Andrew Carrazzo and will be keen to honour Chris Judd’s 250-game milestone. The Blues have dropped a bombshell at selection with the axing of Chris Yarran for poor body language.
Key: Hawthorn’s big-man depth including forwards Lance Franklin, Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston and ruckmen Max Bailey and David Hale present major challenges for the Blues who need key defender Michael Jamison to play a blinder.
Tip: Hawks by 29 points
SATURDAY, June 15
Richmond v Adelaide at MCG 1.40pm
Head to Head: Tigers 10 Crows 20
Last clash: Round 14 2012 – Crows 17.4 (106) bt Tigers 13.9 (87) at AAMI Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Tigers $1.33 Crows $3.35
Sportingbet: Tigers $1.35 Crows $3.15
The Tigers, coming off a bye, can jump to a 7-4 record and give their top-eight credentials a major boost with a win on Saturday. Their victory over West Coast in round 10 shows they are capable of playing top-class football. Adelaide coach Brenton Sanderson has been talking tough after last week’s 77-point loss to Sydney and the Crows (5-6) are also desperate to stay in touch with the top eight.
Key: Brownlow Medal contender Patrick Dangerfield is a hard man to keep quiet for a whole game and, if the Crows need a spark in a tense final term, he’s the man for the job. Richmond’s explosive forward/midfielder Dustin Martin can fill the same role for the home team in what shapes as a last-quarter shootout.
Tip: Tigers by 11 points
Fremantle v Brisbane at Subiaco 4.40pm
Head to Head: Dockers 9 Lions 11
Last clash: Round 3 2012 – Dockers 8.16 (64) bt Lions 5.5 (35) at Subiaco
Tab Sportsbet: Dockers $1.04 Lions $11.00
Sportingbet: Dockers $1.05 Lions $9.50
Fifth-placed Fremantle at home against 15th-placed Brisbane doesn’t sound like an even contest. The return of onballer Tom Rockliff and ruck/forward Matthew Leuenberger won’t be enough to make the Lions competitive against a side hungry for a top-four spot. Both sides had a bye last week as the Lions try to make something of another season in which they’re shaping up as also-rans, missing finals action for the fourth year in a row.
Key: Fremantle boast the only defence to have conceded less than 800 points this season and, even if the Lions can keep the home side’s forwards reasonably quiet, they’ll struggle to kick a big score of their own.
Tip: Dockers by 36 points
Essendon v Gold Coast at Etihad Stadium 7.40pm
Head to Head: Bombers 2 Suns 0
Last clash: Round 3 2012 – Bombers 15.15 (105) bt Suns 13.10 (88) at Gold Coast Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Bombers $1.16 Suns $5.25
Sportingbet: Bombers $1.20 Suns $4.60
Football romantics will be keen to follow the fairytale surrounding third-year club Gold Coast’s push for their first finals appearance after winning five of their first 11 games in 2013. One might speculate that the Suns are worth a punt at healthy odds this week. But reality could hit Guy McKenna’s side hard on Saturday night against the battle-hardened Bombers whose record of 8-3 suggests they are genuine top-four material.
Key: The versatility of big men Jake Carlisle and Michael Hurley in attack and defence and the buzz of excitement around 201cm second-gamer Joe Daniher gives Essendon too many weapons in the aerial duels, even with the non-selection of defender Dustin Fletcher because of a groin injury.
Tip: Bombers by 23 points
SUNDAY, June 16
Greater Western Sydney v Port Adelaide at Skoda Stadium 1.10pm
Head to Head: Giants 1 Power 1
Last clash: Round 2 2013 – Power 19.20 (134) bt Giants 11.12 (78) at AAMI Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Giants $4.20 Power $1.23
Sportingbet: Giants $4.70 Power $1.18
In a battle between the winless Giants and Port, who have followed five victories with five defeats, someone is going to break a long run of outs. Port sacked coach Matthew Primus after his side’s round-19 loss at Skoda Stadium in 2012 and, while Ken Hinkley is unlikely to suffer the same fate, an upset defeat would be a costly blow to Port’s finals hopes. The Giants, who have recalled hard-nosed rover Toby Greene, gave a mighty effort for three quarters against Geelong last week.
Key: Port’s inspirational midfielder Kane Cornes is set to break premiership skipper Warren Tredrea’s club record of 255 games in a day of celebrations for the visiting team who need a solid win to boost their spirits after a tough trot.
Tip: Power by 31 points
Collingwood v Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium 4.40pm
Head to Head: Magpies 105 Bulldogs 42 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 6 2012 – Magpies 15.8 (98) bt Bulldogs 11.11 (77) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Magpies $1.08 Bulldogs $8.00
Sportingbet: Magpies $1.12 Bulldogs $6.00
Collingwood’s Brownlow Medallist Dane Swan was in sensational form in last week’s win over Melbourne but it’s the silky skills of Swan’s fellow midfielder Scott Pendlebury that the Bulldogs should fear most. Ryan Griffen leads the Bulldogs’ midfield brigade and the visitors have recalled Matthew Boyd and Brownlow Medallist Adam Cooney from injury. But with tough onballer Luke Ball running himself back into form, the Magpies are starting to put a solid lineup on the park.
Key: Bulldogs’ ruckman Will Minson is in dominant form and Collingwood veteran Darren Jolly is coming off a modest game against Melbourne and needs to lift to avoid Minson giving his midfield an armchair ride.
Tip: Magpies by 31 points
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