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Both winning teams from the weekend went in as underdogs yet both played their best games of the year to progress to the final.
The Chiefs have now beaten the Crusaders twice in two years in the semi-finals and are short-priced favourites to win back-to-back titles this weekend against the Brumbies.
Chiefs fans, and any fan whose team has done all the attacking yet been systematically destroyed in the opening half of a game by Dan Carter’s left boot, would have been nervous at half time with the Chiefs having very little to show for all their endeavour.
This could have been one of those games against the Crusaders where you don’t really know where you went wrong.
You just look up at 80 minutes and say, “how did we get beaten by 20 points?”
A lot has been said in the last two seasons about the Chiefs attack but it was their defence that won them the game on Saturday night.
The difference in the way the two teams defended was stark to say the least.
The Chiefs chose not to commit many defenders at the breakdown, instead conserving their energy, which allowed them to focus on the hit in the tackle, a tactic that was successful in halting the Crusaders momentum, particularly close to the Chiefs line.
The Crusaders on the other hand did what the Crusaders have always done, committing a lot of men to the breakdown with the goal of winning turnovers through counter-rucking.
Chiefs winger Asaeli Tikoirotuma entered more rucks than anyone from his side with eight, while for the Crusaders the telling stat in this regard is that Carter, Crotty and Guildford entered eight, eight and nine respectively.
This shows the importance the Crusaders place on every player knowing when he is required for rucking duties.
The one blight on the Chiefs defensive report card will be the outside centre channel where the Crusaders backs found way too much easy space.
The Brumbies will be hoping that they can get Tevita Kuridrani and Jesse Mogg running at pace through this area although this will be less of a priority than getting Christian Lealiifano as many shots at the sticks as possible.
If the Chiefs don’t commit many numbers to the breakdown again this week then the Brumbies won’t get as many penalties as they did against the Bulls.
The Chief’s discipline inside their own half was fantastic in the second half and they will be backing themselves to repel the Brumbies again this week with the same plan of not contesting too many rucks to nullify the Brumbies plan of winning penalties.
The Brumbies will try and drag the Chiefs into a breakdown contest by keeping it tight through pick and drive and one-off runners forcing the Chiefs to commit more numbers.
The problem for the Chiefs is that the Brumbies have the perfect weapons to achieve this gameplan in Marius Joubert and George Smith.
Joubert allows way more of a contest at the breakdown than any other southern hemisphere ref and the Chiefs are likely to find themselves in a much slower game than the one they played under Steve Walsh last week.
If the Chiefs don’t adapt to the ref they will be in trouble at the breakdown just like the Wallabies were in the second Lions Test where Sam Warburton destroyed them in the first half because they didn’t commit enough numbers to their rucks.
A lot has been said about the appointment of Marius Joubert this week and last, and while last week’s appointment was ridiculous from a neutral referee standpoint, Jake White would have been licking his lips when he found out and this week even more so.
Under Joubert, open side flankers are the most important men on the field as he allows them to compete for longer if they’re on their feet and they tend to get away with more than with other Super Rugby refs.
Joubert is a good mix of northern and southern styles (a little too Northern for me but hey), makes level headed decisions, is very clear with everyone early in the game what you will and what you won’t get away with and basically refs Super Rugby like a Test match.
If you want to turn the game into a penalty shoot-out to suit your style of game by slowing the play down using clever tactics at the breakdown through the guile of breakdown masters like George Smith and Ben Mowen then Marius Joubert is the ref you want.
It will be interesting to see if Sam Cane starts for the Chiefs this week to combat Smith and Mowen, as Messam and Latimer are more hit men than fetchers and Cane’s pace will be needed at some stage.
I think many people wrote the Brumbies off last week (myself included) because of the fact that they have crumbled in every pressure game this year but last week some of the Brumbies provided an insight into what they’re made of playing what I thought was their best game under Jake White.
Matt Toomua and Kuridrani in particular kept their heads to produce the winning play at the death after others lost the plot in the last 20 minutes.
Scott Fardy gave away four penalties against the Bulls including two really dumb ones in a row in kickable positions late in the second half, which for some reason the Bulls didn’t take.
Fardy is the happiest man in world rugby at the moment because everyone is talking about the Bulls not taking the shots as opposed to him giving away stupid penalties but I doubt Ewen Mckenzie would’ve missed it.
This week will be a further test of the mettle of this young Brumbies side as the occasion gets even bigger and there is the added bonus of Wallaby spots up for grabs.
There is a lot of wind up the Brumbies dress at the moment and calls from Canberra fans are for a strong representation in the Wallabies squad as there always is from fans whose team are doing well.
The opportunity is there for several Brumbies to put themselves in contention for the Rugby Championship, but if the occasion gets to them they might be waiting until the end of year tour or beyond.
The Chiefs have the added bonus of knowing what it takes to win a final and they will be looking to shoot out to a lead and sow the seeds of doubt in the Brumbies.
If the Brumbies can keep calm and stay with the Chiefs then they have the gameplan and the backrow to cause one of the upsets of the year.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.