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“The All Blacks make such a habit of scoring just before or after halftime, just when other teams often seem to switch off.” So said Roar colleague Scott Allen in a follow-up comment to his great piece on the Springboks-All Blacks thriller on Wednesday.
Scott and I have been in regular contact since he joined The Roar, mainly just to touch base and make sure we’re not covering the same ground in any given week.
On seeing this comment of his on Wednesday, I fired off a quick note to say I was going to look into this a bit more: particularly in relation to my general perception that the Wallabies tend to concede points in the 20 minutes either side of halftime.
To Scott’s eternal credit, I had barely hit send on the message when a full Excel spreadsheet of stats landed in my inbox.
Moreover, if you reckon our new analyst has far too much time on his hands in producing the quality videos and stills he has so far, you should see his stats.
The short of it is that my perception was correct; the Wallabies do indeed concede a large chunk of their points either side of the break.
Worryingly, New Zealand also score most of their points in this same period.
The tale of the tape reads like this.
Over the course of The Rugby Championship this season, New Zealand scored a whopping 62 percent of all their points in the ‘middle 40’ of games.
Comparatively, Australia ranks next, scoring 49 percent of their total TRC points either side of halftime, followed by Argentina with 42 percent, and South Africa with just 35 percent of their total.
Drilling into this a little further, the All Blacks scored 36 percent of their points in the second quarter, the Wallabies bank 32 percent of their TRC points during the same period, followed by Argentina on 29 percent, and South Africa on 14 percent.
Defensively, the All Blacks let in only 44 percent of all points conceded in the middle 40, while South Africa let in 46 percent, Australia 47 percent, and Argentina leak more than half their total points conceded – 52 percent – in the 20 minutes either side of halftime.
Again, looking more closely at just the second quarter of matches, New Zealand are right on the money as you’d expect, and only let in 25 percent of all points conceded.
Argentina concede 27 percent in the second 20, Australia are next on 28 percent, and perhaps surprisingly, South Africa leak 32 percent – almost a third of all their points conceded in TRC – in the run-in to the break.
Taking this info into the third Bledisloe match tomorrow evening can be both interesting and sobering.
On average, the All Blacks score 11.83 points in the 20 minutes leading into halftime, equating to 71 of total 202 points they scored during The Rugby Championship.
In the same period, they only let in 29 of a total of 115 points conceded in the second quarter, at an average of less than one try (4.83 points).
By contrast, the Wallabies have only scored and average of 7.3 points per match in the second quarter, 44 of a total 133 points for The Rugby Championship.
Defensively, the Wallabies concede 7.67 points in the second twenty, on average, equating to 46 of 170 points scored against them for the tournament.
The sobering bit? New Zealand’s second quarter points scored and Australia’s second quarter points conceded are the highest of their respective breakdowns.
That is, the All Blacks score more points in a game at exactly the same time of the match that the Wallabies allow their opponents to score the most.
And while the Wallabies are letting in more points than they can score themselves in the second quarter of TRC matches, they’re also only scoring a bit over half the number of points the All Blacks are scoring in this same period.
So not only are they letting more points in, but they’re not capable of keeping in touch on the scoreboard.
Scott didn’t give me specific stats on when Ben Smith scores his points on his own, and that’s probably a good thing.
Looking into the TRC match timelines on ESPN Scrum, one other major point sticks out.
In four of their six games, the All Blacks scored the last points of the second half, with two of those occasions being through a try.
In the first Bledisloe Test, and against South Africa in Auckland as well, the All Blacks hit back themselves with the last points of the half no more than two minutes later after being scored against.
So just when their opposition might be thinking they can take some semblance of momentum into the break, New Zealand rip it straight back and keep it for themselves.
So what does this mean for the Wallabies?
Well, it all comes back to this whole debate and discussion we’ve been having for a while about attitude and commitment and never, ever lifting the intensity.
If the impressive win over Argentina truly is the turning point for the Wallabies, there can be no let up against the All Blacks in Dunedin at any point in the game. And particularly if they find themselves behind on the scoreboard.
If the Wallabies happen to post points, they have to ensure the All Blacks can’t hit straight back with points of their own. That means commitment to themselves and each other in defence, and precise self-discipline to ensure no easy penalties.
In that dangerous twenty minutes before halftime, this notion of not letting up cannot be underlined more heavily.
Give New Zealand the slightest sniff and they will put points on the board.
New Zealand led at halftime in all of their TRC matches, and obviously went on with it from there.
The Wallabies simply must get over their second-quarter syndrome if they’re to be any chance in Dunedin. If they don’t, then Rosario will indeed be just another blip on the radar.