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On Sunday morning, my cousin rang me and asked if it was true the All Blacks had just beaten Ireland on time. “No Jim,” I told him, “that was the Kiwis beating England in the Rugby League World Cup semi-final.”
We chatted about how unlikely it was the All Blacks would need an over-time try and conversion to defeat Ireland.
On Monday morning we chatted again and I suggested Jim was something of a clairvoyant in that he seemed to know something all the experts and supporters of the All Blacks and Ireland couldn’t possibly know.
There was something thrilling, in any case, with the way the All Blacks toughed out a victory in over-time against an Ireland side that was fired up, played strongly and believed in the seeming unbelievable – that they would defeat the All Blacks and kill off their prospects of the first unbeaten season in the professional era (starting in 1996) by a leading international rugby team.
On the All Blacks’ northern hemisphere tour, they toughed out a victory over France by forcing a penalty from a scrum on their own tryline with minutes left to play.
They were behind England on the hour at Twickenham and then rolled over them in the last 20 minutes by breaking down England’s lineout.
And against Ireland they came back from a 22-7 deficit at halftime to score after the full-time whistle had sounded.
Breaking down Ireland’s lineout was an important ingredient in getting the momentum to win what looked like being, with only minutes left to play and Ireland in possession well inside the All Blacks’ half, the unwinnable Test.
You could argue from all of this, with the All Blacks emulating the escape tricks of Houdini, the All Blacks are coming back to the field.
But there is a counter argument that you could make, too. And that is the measure of a team is the Tests it wins when everything suggests they shouldn’t win.
A lesser team, a team without the courage and wit, might have lost all three of these Tests.
Knowing how to win, and the unbeaten year by the All Blacks suggests they certainly know all about this, is a key factor in ongoing success.
Take Ireland, for example. They have never beaten the All Blacks, even though they’ve played Tests against them since 1905.
They had the All Blacks at their mercy and Jonathan Sexton missed an easy penalty to give them an 8-point lead with minutes left to play.
But even after that miss, they had chances to seal the victory.
With time almost up they started to do one-up hits to soak up time. The referee Nigel Owens warned them about sealing off the ball-carrier as he plunged to the ground. Sure enough, they sealed off a runner.
Penalty! The All Blacks had to make a series of plays from their own 10m line to score and convert to win. They did this with brilliant, steel-nerved and ruthless running and passing.
Ireland did not know how to win and the All Blacks did not know how to lose.
Back in 2001, Ireland were in a similar situation with a big lead at halftime. In the second half of the Test, the All Blacks steam-rolled Ireland into defeat.
The man of the match was an All Black playing his first Test, Richie McCaw.
The latest Ireland-NZ Test, though, reminded me more of the 2003 Rugby World Cup semi-final between the All Blacks and the Wallabies.
In both these Tests, the All Blacks presented an astonishingly successful series of previous Tests.
In both Tests, too, the All Blacks kicked short from the kick-off, lost the catch and then endured a long sequence of defence on their try line.
In both Tests, too, the All Blacks gave away a crucial and soft long intercept try.
The difference was that in 2003 the All Blacks did not have the mental strength to come back to win.
A decade later, the All Blacks had this mental strength. It is a belief that is going to make them a most formidable side for the next two years at least.
There are three things I look for in teams with pretensions to greatness.
The first is whether they have several great players in the side. Second, whether there is potential for further growth in the side. And third, whether the culture of the side is deep enough to allow for greatness in the side.
The culture of the current All Blacks is clearly strong and vibrant and creating a self-belief in all the players there is something special happening to them and the team.
The last pass of the Test was a hand-off in the Sonny Bill Williams manner by the new hooker Dan Coles to the substitute centre Ryan Crotty.
The All Blacks have used, according to Richie McCaw, about 40 players this season. Many of the new players will be established stars in RWC 2015.
As for great players, in Richie McCaw, Kieran Read and Dan Carter the All Blacks have three players who are not only giants of New Zealand rugby but among the greatest players to have played anywhere and at any time.
I was reading an interesting account of the All Blacks’ culture, ‘Legacy’ by James Kerr, that the senior players always clean up the team’s dressing room after Tests.
People more expert than me in mind games theory will be able to give a deeper analysis of what this gesture means, but to me it suggests a humility about their role as custodians of the All Blacks jersey and traditions that runs counter to the notion they are an ‘arrogant and cheating’ side.
I would suggest the Springboks, with 10 Test victories this season out of 12, with the two losses to the All Blacks, have had an outstanding year, too.
The Springboks look to be a much stronger side than the team that won RWC 2007. But whether that will be the case in RWC 2015 is another matter.
The problem with the Springboks is too many of the champions of Rugby World Cup 2007 have been recalled to the side.
The young players who played so splendidly in The Rugby Championship have been flicked on and the old champions have been brought back.
I also think Morne Steyn, iron hands at fly half, will be as much an impediment to the Springboks’ ensemble game, which they can play when they are a mind to do so, when he is leading the attack.
His first, second and often third option is to kick the ball away.
And where do the Wallabies stand in all of this?
Like England, they have a youngish side, that is struggling to find a style that works with the skills and attitude of the players on the squad.
The return of David Pocock, for instance, who I reckon will be used generally ahead of Michael Hooper as the number 7, will stiffen up the Wallabies’ defence and breakdown work.
Scott Higginbotham will give some speed and mongrel to the number 8 position. This will mean Ben Mowen can shift to his best position at breakaway.
The backs, too, have got a lot of potential growth in them as a unit, with the centres Matt Toomua/Tevita Kuridrani giving some strength and explosiveness to the Wallabies in the middle of the field for the first time since Stirling Mortlock and before him, Daniel Herbert.
Israel Folau is a try-scorer and terrific under the high ball.
The Wallabies have the chance to end the season with some momentum if they beat Wales (as they should) early on Sunday morning EST.
A victory will mean four straight wins and momentum, finally, going into 2014.
England will have a chance to show whether their young team is up to being a contender in RWC 2015 when they tour New Zealand next June.
Sir Clive Woodward, the coach who built the greatest and most successful England side that won RWC 2003, makes the point England are too restrictive in their back play to have any pretensions to becoming a great side.
I think this is right, and it applies as well to the Springboks who (unlike England) have the back line talent but lack the imagination to unleash the devastating runners they have to destroy the defences of their opponents.
This bring us back to the All Blacks. This year in 14 unbeaten Tests they scored 51 tries to 19; 454 points for and 239 against.
Have they peaked? I don’t believe so. And more importantly, the coaches of the All Blacks don’t believe so.
I would expect them to be better next year than they were this year. It is up to their opponents to make more progress than they have this season to head the All Blacks off.
If they don’t, the All Blacks bandwagon will roll on to RWC 2015.