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The 2014 Six Nations tournament kicks off this weekend with Wales attempting to win the tournament for the third year in succession.
Realistically there are only four teams that can win the tournament with Scotland and Italy unlikely to challenge for the title, even though they’re likely to spring an upset or two along the way.
Let’s take a look at the three matches this weekend.
Wales v Italy
Wales host Italy and should start their title defence with a win.
Warren Gatland had most of his squad available for selection this week with the exception of injured loosehead prop Gethin Jenkins and lock Ian Evans who is serving a suspension.
Sam Warburton and Jonathon Davies are both returning from injury and with Italy as their opponent Gatland has the luxury of giving these players some extra time to regain full fitness with Warburton selected on the bench and Davies playing for Scarlets this weekend.
There has been a fair bit of turmoil in Welsh rugby recently with the four regions in dispute with the Welsh Rugby Union over funding for the professional game and which European competition the regions should participate in.
That dispute looks like it has a fair way to run with suggestions it’s going to end in a court battle. However, I doubt those dramas will have too much of a negative impact on the performance of the team in the Six Nations.
Adam Jones and Richard Hibbard provide a really good platform in the front row. Alun-Wyn Jones captains the side from lock in Warburton’s absence as he did in the final Lions test against the Wallabies last year.
The backrow of Dan Lydiate, Justin Tipuric and Toby Faletau looks very strong. Lydiate was allowed to return to France to be with his partner for the birth of their child early this week but was expected to be back in camp by Thursday so should play.
Mike Phillips, Jamie Roberts, George North, Alex Cuthbert and Leigh Halfpenny provide a strong nucleus for the backline with Rhys Priestland winning the race for the flyhalf position ahead of Dan Biggar.
Italy had their best Six Nations campaign ever last year beating both France and Ireland but have won only one of six Tests they’ve played since.
The Italians are likely to try and play through their forward pack with Martin Castrogiovanni leading the way at scrum time. Their backrow led by captain Sergio Parisse is a good one so their clash with the Welsh backrow will be a highlight.
The biggest weakness for the Italians is their defence. We saw the pressure the Wallabies put the Italians under on the end of year tour last year and they concede an average of 32 points per match in the Six Nations. It’s an area their coach, Jacques Brunel, has said he’s targeting for improvement and they’ll certainly need that to be competitive.
Italy also lack a flyhalf who can really control the game. Luciano Orquera is most likely to start at flyhalf with young Tomaso Allan considered a little too inexperienced. However, Brunel will no doubt be keen to see Allan get as much game time as possible to see whether he can fulfil his potential.
The last time the two teams played at Millennium Stadium in 2012 Wales recorded a 24-3 win. I’ll be surprised if we don’t see a similar margin for Wales this weekend.
France v England
This match has been billed as ‘Le Crunch’ by many. That’s partly due to the expected physical contest between the forward packs, particularly at scrum time but even though this is only a first round match it’s also considered one that could have a huge bearing on the chances of both teams in the tournament.
France are France – brilliant on some days and ordinary on others – there aren’t many people who will claim to really know what we’ll see from them this weekend.
England aren’t necessarily a conservative team but they do have a tendency to plod along a little. They played so well against the All Blacks in 2012 but despite winning eight of their ten tests since that match, we haven’t seen that form again.
Their performance in the deciding 2013 Six Nations match where they were belted 30-3 by Wales was poor, especially when you consider they were trying to achieve a grand slam that day.
With Owen Farrell at flyhalf it’s unlikely we’ll see too much flair from England in this match. Manu Tuialgi is still unavailable through injury and they’re struggling to establish combinations in the centres.
Chris Ashton has been dropped so there are more changes in the back line but Mike Brown at fullback can provide a spark and is certainly one to watch.
England have a solid pack with Billy Vunipola at number eight and lock Courtney Lawes two of the players who can make an impact both in attack and defence.
France were poor in last year’s tournament, finishing last. Since then they’ve lost five of six tests, although four of those were against New Zealand and one against South Africa. I can’t see them playing as poorly in this year’s tournament.
The French will be without regulars Morgan Parra and Thierry Dusautoir due to injury. Parra is back playing for his club and may play later in the tournament but Dusautoir will not play at all.
Mathieu Bastareaud and Wesley Fofana could form a strong centre partnership that will really test the English defence.
Louis Picamoles is a wonderful player at number eight and watch out for Yannick Nyanga at the breakdown.
The French pride themselves on scrummaging and will be looking to dominate the English to set a platform for the rest of their game. The English will not want to give any ground in this area so the scrum will be a vital clash but only if the surface holds up better than it did against the All Blacks last year when large sections of turf were ripped up every time a scrum was packed.
The winner of the match will set themselves up nicely for the rest of the tournament whilst the loser will not be able to afford any other slip ups in the tournament.
Both teams have something to prove – England to show that they are a better side than that defeated by Wales last year and France to show that their 2013 tournament was an aberration.
Last time the two teams met in France in the 2012 Six Nations England scraped home 24-22 and I expect it will again be a very tight clash.
I’ll go with France to win by less than seven points.
Ireland v Scotland
Ireland will go into this match at home as firm favourites.
Their last up performance against New Zealand showed the improvements Joe Schmidt has made since taking over as coach last year.
This will be the last Six Nations tournament for Brian O’Driscoll and I won’t be surprised if we see a vintage performance from him. His presence may also lift his teammates to send him out with a good showing.
Paul O’Connell is 34 but is playing on and is still playing very well – he’s also an inspirational leader.
The Irish have lost one of their key players to injury in Sean O’Brien and his presence will be missed. Tommy Bowe is also injured and may not be available until late in the tournament.
The front row led by Cian Healy and Mike Ross should be solid and Jamie Heaslip is still a force to be reckoned with at number eight.
The form of Johnny Sexton at flyhalf will be crucial. His early form after moving to France was not that good but he’s starting to play a lot better as he comes to terms with the systems and players around him at Racing Metro.
The Irish will be aiming for a quick start in this match like they made against the All Blacks late last year but then to go on with it this time.
I expect Scotland to struggle in this match and throughout the tournament.
They really don’t have many top players to call on and their best chance seems to be a wet, windy day where they can slow the game down and play from set piece to set piece.
I rate Jim Hamilton as a lock and he performs well in the lineout. Dave Denton and the captain Kelly Brown are both solid players but nothing more than that.
The scrum is significantly weakened without their tighthead prop Euan Murray who is injured but wouldn’t have played in this match anyway as he doesn’t play on Sundays due to religious beliefs.
Sean Maitland and Stuart Hogg offer some good options in attack in the backline but the loss of Tim Visser to injury is a blow.
The biggest area of concern for Scotland must be who will play flyhalf and frankly, it doesn’t matter who it is – they will be probably be a weakness that Ireland will target.
In last year’s Six Nations Scotland defied the odds to finish third but I can’t see them getting that close this year.
I expect Ireland will win by 15 points.
We’ll bring you highlights from Round 1 matches on Monday.