The finest Premier League season in recent memory is set to go down to the wire, as three teams battle it out for the title.
Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea all have legitimate designs on English football’s greatest prize, and we review their prospects going into the final throes of a truly captivating season.
Liverpool – 74 points, +35 (Played 33, Won 23, Drawn 5, Lost 5, For 90, Against 40)
The run home
Manchester City (H) – Sunday April 13
Norwich City (A) – Sunday April 20
Chelsea (H) – Sunday April 27
Crystal Palace (A) – Tuesday May 6
Newcastle United (H) – Monday May 12
No person in his or her right mind could imagine Liverpool in this position at any point this season, let alone one month before its end. Liverpool fans of rational cerebral context (which can vary quite greatly) would have previously regarded a season that ended with Champions League qualification as an unmitigated success.
However, such has been their campaign that not winning the title now will be regarded as a disappointing tease.
With nine straight wins, the Reds can now determine their own destiny – win their next five games, and their 24-year long league drought ends.
With the deadliest strike force in English football (and one that will get European audiences salivating next season), the Reds have been able to overcome both low public expectations as well as their sometimes leaky defence to brush aside their opponents with consummate ease.
While their recent victories against Fulham, Swansea, Sunderland and West Ham were met with occasional blips, their title credentials truly come to the fore within the next three weeks.
First up is the mouth-watering clash against Manchester City this Sunday, where victory would see the Reds extend their lead over their opponents to a mammoth seven points.
But the onus will be on Liverpool to deliver the win, as anything less than three points will hand the advantage back to both City, with two games in hand, as well as Chelsea, who can narrow their deficit that same afternoon.
The only other big match-up is Chelsea’s visit to Anfield, where Liverpool’s title credentials will truly be determined.
Sandwiched around those two heavyweight meetings are visits to struggling Norwich City, who will have cold sweats at the prospect of another Luis Suarez exhibition, and a possible banana skin in Crystal Palace.
Liverpool’s last game is at home against an increasingly awful Newcastle United team, where the Reds and their title-craving captain Steven Gerrard, may taste league success for the first time in a generation.
Yet it may not even get to that, if results against City and Chelsea are not obtained.
Football audiences have been wonderfully entertained by Liverpool this season, but the club’s famous saying of “first is first, second is nowhere” will ring loud and true if the Premier League trophy doesn’t wear red ribbons on May 12.
Prediction: second
While mathematics dictates that Liverpool will be champions if they win their remaining games, logic suggests that nothing less will do if they are to stay in the hunt.
Both Manchester City and Chelsea are good enough to capitalise on any slip up by the Reds, and Liverpool’s squad depth remains an ever-present worry for Brendan Rodgers should injuries or suspension befall them.
Chelsea – 72 points, +41 (Played 33, Won 22, Drawn 6, Lost 5, For 65, Against 24)
The run home
Swansea City (A) – Monday April 14
Sunderland (H) – Sunday April 20
Liverpool (A) – Sunday April 27
Norwich City (H) – Monday May 5
Cardiff City (A) – Monday April 12
At the time of writing, Chelsea were about to attempt to overcome a two-goal deficit against Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League quarter-final. The overall result of that two-legged playoff may well determine Chelsea’s silverware prospects this season, which otherwise look increasingly bleak domestically.
Faced with a two-point deficit against Liverpool and a two-game deficit against Manchester City (who they lead by two points), the Blues are between a rock and a hard place – where they will hope for the right permutations to occur while at the same time securing positive results themselves.
If the highlight of their season was being the only English team to beat Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium, then football scribes may point to their recent away losses at Aston Villa and Crystal Palace as where their Premier League title credentials evaporated.
While the Blues may possess the meanest defence in the Premier League, it is apparent that Chelsea lack the firepower to properly challenge their rivals for the title.
While Liverpool’s strikeforce of Suarez and Daniel Sturridge have amassed 49 goals, and the City trio Sergio Aguero, Edin Dzeko and Alvaro Negredo have struck the net 35 times, Chelsea’s maligned troika of Samuel Eto’o, Fernando Torres and Demba Ba have only registered a measly 15 goals. That is only two more than the currently on-loan poacher Romelu Lukaku.
The good news is that out of the three teams, Chelsea’s remaining fixtures look the easiest on paper to contend with, with the visit to Liverpool being the only game where points can’t be chalked up.
If you are to believe the Special One’s recent assertion of a “fake Premier League table”, that would be to ignore Chelsea’s recent foibles, and their lack of a consistent goal threat that matches their rivals.
Prediction: third
Truth be told, Jose Mourinho has overachieved with this squad, securing at least a third place league finish as well as at worst a quarter-finals exit in Europe.
Blues’ fans will lament their team’s plight in front of goal, especially while Romelo Lukaku runs rampant in the blue of Everton.
No further slip-ups can be afforded by the team currently in the worst position of all three sides. Chelsea will fervently hope for a Liverpool and City stalemate to restart their campaign. Otherwise, the Chelsea little horse will come third to the City big horse and the Liverpool Chihuahua.
Manchester City – 70 points, +55 (Played 31, Won 22, Drawn 4, Lost 5, For 84, Against 29)
The run home
Liverpool (A) – Sunday April 13
Sunderland (H) – Thursday April 17
West Bromwich Albion (H) – Tuesday April 22
Crystal Palace (A) – Monday April 28
Everton (A) – Sunday May 4
Aston Villa (H) – Thursday May 8
West Ham United (H) – Monday May 12
Like Liverpool, Manchester City have destiny in their own hands. One way or another though, that paradigm will cease after the two teams’ clash this weekend. A win or draw for City will see them move to outright favourites in title race with two games in hand.
With the strongest squad, the best goal difference, and a positive fixture list that sees four of their remaining seven games at home, the Citizens will view their two Merseyside visits within three weeks as the only stumbling blocks to their paths to success.
The games in hand are at home against Sunderland and Aston Villa – both in which the Eastlands club will chalk up six points as minimum expectation.
Silverware has already been secured for Manuel Pellegrini’s team in the form of the League Cup, but the recent history of Manchester City suggests loftier ambitions need to be met.
As the most recent champions of the three contenders, Sergio Aguero’s “staggering” (ala Peter Drury) strike against Queens Park Rangers is still fresh in the minds of both his teammates and City’s rivals.
While securing points at either Anfield or Goodison Park is no easy task, the other possible issue for City may be a fixture pileup that neither Liverpool nor Chelsea (pending their European involvement) have to contend with.
However, these are minor trifling issues for the Sky Blues, who have the squad, the recent success, as well as the momentum to take back the title they lost last season to their crosstown rivals.
Prediction: Champions
All said and done, failure to win the Premier League will represent a poor campaign for Manchester City, which will render the League Cup as almost irrelevant in the eyes of their Abu Dhabi-based owners.
Pellegrini can only look to the fate of his predecessor to know what the price for lack of success at Manchester City is, and will be desperate to secure a title that is expected, regardless of the two difficult clashes against the Merseyside clubs that awaits them.
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