The NBA playoffs are upon us. While the official standings and match-ups are not yet locked in, I have run the numbers to predict the first round of playoff opponents in the Eastern Conference.
It’s the first time ever than the Knicks, Celtics and Lakers haven’t made the finals, and the East again looks weaker across the board than the West this season.
Indiana Pacers (1) v Atlanta Hawks (8)
What was looking like a fairly comfortable series in January for the Pacers has become more interesting. The Pacers have been extraordinarily poor since February in recording 19-16 – hardly worthy of a top-seeded team.
The most obvious reason for this is the stunning decline in Paul George’s offensive output, which makes for sobering reading for Pacers fans.
| Period | Matches | FG % | 3PT % | PPG |
| Nov-Dec | 15 | 46 | 40 | 23 |
| Dec-Jan | 15 | 46 | 38 | 23 |
| Jan-Feb | 16 | 40 | 31 | 21 |
| Feb-Mar | 13 | 40 | 40 | 21 |
| Mar-Apr | 18 | 37 | 29 | 18 |
This is a remarkable fall from grace for a supposed MVP candidate, and coincides with rumours of an off-court matter ‘Catfish’ scandal.
Also adding to their woes is the continued poor play from Roy Hibbert (perhaps the most overrated player in the NBA) and George Hill, who I am still not quite sure fulfills the role of a point guard.
Hibbert is seven-feet tall, but rebounds like a small forward. He defends the rim well, but is not overly effective when put in pick-and-roll situations due to his limited foot speed and reluctance to step out. That is not unique to Hibbert, but against good shooting opponents (especially bigs – see Pero Antic), his reluctance or inability to occasionally jump the screen rather than hanging back could become an issue.
In saying that, they should handle an Atlanta team minus Al Horford relatively comfortably.
Pacers in five games.
Miami Heat (2) v Charlotte Bobcats (7)
Miami have cruised through much of the season, losing far more than expected. They came out after the All-Star break in strong form, but have since let numerous easy games slip past them, perhaps readying themselves for another tilt at the finals.
If they do make the NBA Finals, they would be be the first team since the Boston Celtics in 1987 to make four successive Finals appearances.
Charlotte have been a pleasant surprise. They have the fifth-best defence in the league, but scoring can be a problem unless your name is Al Jefferson, who should rightly be on an all-NBA team this year.
If they can keep Miami under 100 points per fame, they have a chance – albeit a minor one.
Jefferson should in theory have his way with the undersized Miami frontline, but he can expect to be doubled so Charlotte will need to be efficient shooting the ball. Kemba Walker, Gary Neal and Anthony Tolliver will need to step up, and limit Miami in transition. Not an easy proposition.
The often-rested Dwyane Wade will need to return to his efficient best. Any continuation of his regular shooting numbers in this series should see a fairly comfortable victory.
And that’s without even taking the best form of LeBron James into account.
Heat in 5 games.
Chicago Bulls (3) vs Washington Wizards (6)
This may be the pick of the east match ups in round 1, particularly if Washington can get Nene back, healthy and effective.
The Wizards need Bradley Beal to turn up in his best shooting form, which for the most part has not been his MO this season. For a man often talked about as the second coming of Ray Allen, Beal’s numbers are far from efficient – he is shooting just41% from the field this season.
That won’t cut it against the league’s best defence in the Bulls, and maybe the best defender in the league in Joakim Noah. And boy do they they need his defence, as the Bulls can often go into scoring slumps not witnessed since my high school formal.
One of the more amazing things to happen this season has been the contribution of DJ Augustin, who looked like he was headed out of the league and into a career in the postal service.
I like everything about this series, especially the potential of Wall and Beal to go hot against this defence, how Tom Thibedeau responds to that and Nene’s presence. This has all the makings of a seven-game series, but I feel Thibedeau will figure it out and out-coach Randy Wittman.
Bulls win 4-3
Toronto Raptors (4) v Brooklyn Nets (5)
History says experience gets it done in the playoffs, and the Nets have that in spades over Toronto. But how effective will the Nets’ vets be?
Kevin Garnett has been a mere shell of himself this season, as has Deron Williams. Paul Pierce has had his moments, but the Nets are rested and have been one of the better teams since the All-Star break.
Toronto don’t have quite the same playoff experience, but they are a very athletic team. If the Raptors can figure out how to increase the tempo and run on the Nets, they should be able to handle their business.
Home-court advantage could be huge here for the Raptors. They have not had this kind of expectation and excitement since Vince Carter was doing his thing.
Non-big post play here will be telling for the Nets. Shawn Livingston has had his way at times against smaller guards in the post, as has Joe Johnson, but Toronto have length at those positions too in DeRozan and Terrence Ross. Even Salmons can be a suitable defender when engaged.
Kyle Lowry is one of the better point guards in the East, and he must outplay Deron Williams for the Raptors to get it done.
I see this as another seven-game series, and will go with home court advantage and the young Raptors to advance.
Toronto 4-3
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