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Super Rugby is at its midpoint, and there is enough evidence to talk about the coaching hot seats.
I don’t think everyone on this list will be fired, rugby tends to be a bit more conservative than other sports in that way, but we need to talk about these positions nonetheless.
First up, two who almost made the cut: Todd Blackadder probably needs to make the finals to get another go round. Despite his overall winning percentage, he hasn’t won a competition yet. Sir John Kirwan needs to be named here if only because the plan at the Blues is almost indiscernible. His second year is probably too soon to stick the boot in.
Now, in order of coolest to hottest seat temperature, these are the positions that merit consideration:
Richard Graham – Reds
There’s no evidence to suggest Graham’s seat is dangerously burning up, it is probably being dangled uncomfortably close to a pot of boiling water. The Reds are now so far off the pace, to make the finals they essentially need to become the best team in the competition and perform at that level for every remaining game. After last weekend, it’s hard to see them being anywhere near the best in the competition for a single week.
They have real talent, especially Will Genia and Quade Cooper, who still have the ability to stress opposition lines and pick runners. But there’s no overall consistency, not enough runners and some naïve (or ignorant) tactical decision-making. You can’t spend huge swathes of time on the opposition line and fail to adjust the plan of attack as it becomes apparent the first option isn’t working.
Graham is presiding over the continued decline of the Ewen McKenzie era – built off Phil Mooney’s skill-based foundations – which peaked in 2011. If Graham’s time at the Force is anything to go by, I wouldn’t hold high hopes, but he probably deserves another year to firmly establish a new programme at the Reds. It’s clear the continuation of 2011’s processes with the current personnel isn’t working.
The biggest issue is sooner or later the lack of success on the field will have an impact off it. Keep losing and they won’t keep posting million-dollar profits for long.
Naka Drostke – Cheetahs
The man who oversaw the Cheetahs entry into Super Rugby finals is wobbling at the moment, presiding over a streaky team that resemble the first five years of his tenure.
Whether the Cheetahs have relaxed in the wake of relative success or not I can’t see from the outside. But what is apparent is the team isn’t showing the same level of organisation, dedication and commitment in defence that defined them during their run to sixth place last year.
After finishing on 54 points in 2013 (including eight points for bye weeks, which won’t be repeated this year) the Cheetahs have only nine points after seven rounds. It doesn’t take a maths major to see that doesn’t work. The Cheetahs already have a minus-90 point differential to boot.
Multiple seasons of crashing and burning have seen Drostke’s seat slowly burnt up. Is one shining year out of seven seasons in charge enough?
Mark Hammet – Hurricanes
They haven’t been ruled out of contention yet, but the Hurricanes are teetering on the brink of a fifth-consecutive season without tasting knock-out rugby. Since 2011, Hamment has been in charge of those disappointments.
New Zealand rugby tends to have a dominant Super Rugby side – first the Blues, then Crusaders and now the Chiefs – but the second tier is usually quite fluid year-to-year due to the overall quality of talent available.
For a side not to make the finals for four straight years should be enough to see a coach kicked out. In fact, under Hammet the Hurricanes are yet to finish above eighth. They’re tenth overall right now and that’s about right.
On their night, the Hurricanes are an irresistible attacking force that cuts you to ribbons. They punch you repeatedly in the mouth with mind-blowing speed and compete at the set piece. Sadly, those nights are only about 40per cent of the time. For the rest they lack cohesion, can’t get a territorial foothold and make defence appear optional.
Kiwis are naturally a subtle lot, so I’ll be blunt: If Hamment can’t make the finals this year, he shouldn’t stay in his job.
Allister Coetzee – Stormers
There are approximately 9,345 South African-authored articles on the internet saying things like “Heads will roll!” and “Management is the Stormers’ problem”. Check out this angry guy – “It’s a crime to charge people to watch what was on offer at the weekend”. Ouch!
While I can’t see Coetzee having a criminal case to answer for, there’s enough prima facie evidence to say he’s not done a good job. Coetzee isn’t so much sitting on a hot seat as falling off the lip of a volcano wearing nothing but some crusty undies.
For a few seasons now, the Stormers have had the talent to win a Super Rugby title, but haven’t been able to get the job done. I’ve written that the missing ingredient on the field is a fly-half who can put the parts together so everyone shines. Peter Grant at his best has been able to keep the Stormers close, but his ceiling isn’t high enough. Coetzee has had two chances to fix the position – going through Elton Jantjies and Demetri Catrakilis – and both players somehow played worse for the side than with their lesser teams.
(For Waratahs fans, the Stormers predicament is the worse-case scenario for the current programme in Sydney. It’s clear that positions 1-8 and 12-15 have improved during Michael Cheika’s tenure, but the pivot positions haven’t matched the standard.)
The real debacle is how the rest of the team’s strong points have faded away while the final pieces of the puzzle were being muddled with. This year the Stormers can’t even rely on their bulldozing pack or unbreakable defence and they’ve only scored ten tries in seven games. The puzzle has been thrown in the fire.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.