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With eleven rounds of Super Rugby now behind us, and five more to come before we break off for the June Internationals, now is the time for another report card.
As has always been the case, this isn’t about straight-out rankings (that’s what points tables are for), but my take on how each team is tracking according to expectations.
First, a quick recap. When I issued the first report card after Round 5, I listed the teams as follows:
Over-achieving: Sharks, Lions, Bulls and Force.
On par: Chiefs, Brumbies, Waratahs, Highlanders, Hurricanes and Rebels.
We need to talk: Stormers, Cheetahs, Blues, Reds and Crusaders.
Using the same clearly scientific method of evaluation, let’s see how the teams have got on since then.
Over-achieving
Given that we’re halfway through the season, the number of over-achievers has greatly decreased. Early-season bolters more often than not come back to the pack, and teams that start slowly catch up.
Two over-achievers remain at this point.
The Force are still in this category, simply because their bubble was expected to burst and it hasn’t. They set a club record of five consecutive wins between Rounds 4 and 9, and then returned to the winners’ circle with a patient but no less gutsy win in the rain over the Bulls on Saturday night.
That the bubble hasn’t burst amid a less-than-ideal injury list, and that they’re now showing they can grind out wins when they need to, shows this really is a team on the rise, and can no longer be taken lightly – especially in front of their passionate supporters in Perth.
The measure of just how far the Force have come this year is that it would actually be a disappointment if they don’t finish in the top six from here.
They missed the opportunity to go to the top of the Australian conference ten days ago in Melbourne, but consolidated their spot by beating the Bulls. They need to go on with it from here, and even with a South African tour to come – where they’ll play the 14th-placed Cheetahs and 15th-placed Stormers – there’s no reason why they can’t.
The other measure is the drastically increased press they’re getting. Names you previously didn’t give much thought are now being spoken of in Wallaby terms, while others are popping up as recruitment targets for sides on the slide. Long may it continue; that was the whole point of putting a team in Perth in the first place.
I’ve got the Hurricanes in the over-achieving category, too, because they’ve stormed from nowhere to now sit atop the New Zealand conference. They’re currently on a four-game winning streak, with impressive victories over the Crusaders, Bulls, Blues and Reds rocketing them up the charts.
Importantly, they’re playing good rugby and have players hitting form across the park. Their backrow and back three were both areas of concern but are becoming focal points of the team’s success.
They do have a tough run home from here, including a full round of local derbies and a hit-out against the Chiefs, but on current form there’s no reason they can’t stay in finals contention.
On par
These teams are going about as well or as badly as expected since the last report, and once again it’s the biggest group.
The Sharks are no longer over-achieving and the Brumbies remain here from last time, both sitting in pole position in their respective conferences. Both teams have a tough road ahead over the next month, and how they emerge from this will either confirm or debunk their title credentials.
The Highlanders and Rebels continue along the same mid-table plane they’ve been on for some time. While the Rebels are probably destined to remain around that position, the Highlanders’ very good win in Durban has them poised between smokey and nuisance value, at least until the June international window.
Five games away in the Highlanders’ last eight will make things difficult, but if there’s anything to be learnt from this season of Super Rugby, it’s that anything can and probably will happen.
The Bulls and Lions were over-achieving, but are now progressing as expected. I was surprised the Bulls started the season as well as they did, but they have been able to stay in touch ever since. Even coming off a tour that netted four losses, they remain the second-best team in South Africa.
I’m not surprised the Lions have come back to earth. Last report they had already recorded the three wins that they’ve averaged in each Super Rugby season, but they’ve only managed one win since, in that Round 6 game that Reds supporters are still seething about.
The Lions scored ten tries in the first six rounds, but have only crossed the stripe once since then.
The Crusaders and Blues have graduated from the category below, though it was a close-run thing for the Blues. Yes, they are only six points shy of the Hurricanes in the New Zealand conference, and they did play well to beat the Waratahs, but was that the norm or an anomaly?
When a team lets its major recruit go after just ten rounds, you can really only ask questions.
The Crusaders are back on track as expected, though I still have to question what on earth was going on in their first six weeks. They look a better side with Colin Slade at first-five now – their goal-kicking has improved dramatically – and the backline has looked more settled since the selection lotto stopped.
The cavalry is returning for the Crusaders, with Kieran Read a certainty and Richie McCaw a big chance of making his comeback against the Brumbies in Christchurch on Saturday afternoon.
We need to talk…
The Cheetahs and Stormers. Still. I maintain that both are much better teams than their lowly position indicates, but they’ve both been guilty of playing horrible rugby. No point worrying about them this season, so I’m not going to.
Of the Reds, last time around, I wrote they, “look to be in a bit of a holding pattern currently, to me at least. We know what they’re capable of, and we’ve even seen glimpses of it, but I’m not sure when we’ll see that 80-minute display they’re so desperately trying to throw together.”
Nothing has changed, nor has the over-reliance on Quade Cooper. The new worry is that while their backrow remains serviceable, it’s hardly threatening. Liam Gill has been missed a lot more than I imagined. The loss to the Hurricanes put the red line through them for 2014.
The Waratahs and Chiefs slip down into this category, and while it’s likely they’ll figure in finals football, I do wonder how they can lift themselves out of their rut in order to finish in the top six.
The Tahs maintain a top-two finish is their goal, but even to get to the ten wins that has been the historical cut-off they’ll have to win at least five of their last seven games. Three of those are away from their SFS home, plus they have one more derby game at Homebush against the Brumbies.
Michael Cheika needs to make changes, but it’s hard to say where or if they’ll make a difference. The twin-playmaker strategy is a common target, but playing Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale as a 10-12 pair netted 17 tries after six rounds. Mind you, the same system has produced five since, and several of those were scored in the forwards.
Lastly come the Chiefs, falling victim of their injury list. Dave Rennie told me last week that he doesn’t want to use it as an excuse, and that all teams go through similar issues in their given season, but the constant chopping and changing, even by necessity, must be having an effect.
I can’t help but feel sorry for Gareth Anscombe. The loss of Aaron Cruden hurts more by the week, but Anscombe is still saying all the right things to convince everyone (and himself, presumably) that he is indeed still a flyhalf despite playing fullback for more than two years.
The Chiefs looked a long way from the two-time Champions they are in Canberra last Friday evening, and with six derby games to finish the season, they face a battle to regain the New Zealand conference lead that has been the key factor in their back-to-back success.