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After having a close look at what’s gone on so far in NRL season 2014, then taking a peek at what is coming up, I reckon there are a few surprises in store. Nasty ones too.
The fight at the bottom will be intense for the Dragons, Raiders, Knights and Sharks.
To read more Brian Smith, outside The Roar, check out his website SmithySpeaks.
Dismissing any intervention by the NRL or ASADA that could smash an already shattered Cronulla, finishing bottom still looms large.
Victories over the Warriors, prior to that club’s change of head coach, and the Panthers are small reward for Cronulla, who have lost their head coach and have the core of their highly-paid players out through injury. Their glimmer of hope is the return of these injured players seeing them fight their way off the bottom.
>> Expert reaction the Queensland’s Origin team for Game 2
>> Expert reaction the New South Wales’ Origin team for Game 2
Even after their demolition job of the Sharks last Saturday night, I’m still concerned that St George Illawarra might finish near the foot of the table. Their current five victories consist of home and away wins over both their depleted neighbours and the Warriors. Wests Tigers in Round 1 was the Dragons’ only other victory.
Newcastle have beaten only the Sharks and the Raiders while racking up an amazing 10 losses. Initially there were plenty of reasons offered up, but they are starting to sound hollow. It’s hard to find any evidence of a rally in form or emotional effort. Even allowing for the quality players and coaching available, it’s dark for the Knights in a season they were tipped for great success.
Canberra’s form has been more encouraging. Wins over Souths and the Storm suggested they were capable, but back-to-back 50-point scorelines in Rounds 8 and 9 shattered that.
In Round 11 the Raiders belted the Cowboyes 42-12 and it seemed big things were about to happen. Then the Roosters cruised in a very low gear to a 26-12 win, and the Broncos hammered them 28-4.
All four teams seem to be sliding in form rather than growing at this point.
Other surprises I got included reverse draws and critical matches for teams with finals aspirations.
The Warriors have a real chance to leapfrog into a great spot. With byes in Rounds 14 and 17, and back-to-back home games against the Broncos and Panthers, they should be fresh for those matches, before facing the Eels at home, the Broncos away and home then the Eagles at home. Their Round 21, 22 and 23 matches are Raiders, Sharks and Knights.
This is the critical period for the Aucklanders to set up a playoff spot. The bad news is that they have more games against the top-six clubs than any of the contenders.
The Cowboys, with their four mainstay players heavily involved in Origin, could not have it worse. They have one home match and four aways coming up to Round 20, albeit with two byes. Matches against Newcastle, Dragons and Sharks are all away, and the Cowboys struggle away from North Queensland. Time for them to kick all that into touch to set up a big finish to the season.
Parramatta have surprised many with their improvements this season. They have every chance of making the playoffs with five of their remaining matches against bottom four teams.
At the top end, Penrith have enjoyed a fantastic season with some real achievements and some favourable twists of the draw. Of their twelve matches, five have been against bottom-four sides – more than any other team. They have also managed to meet Parra without Jarryd Hayne and the Titans without a host of players in their latest flurry of wins.
The draw has seen the Panthers face only two top-six teams, narrowly beating the Dogs in Round 3 and being smashed by the Rabbits at home 18-2. But the chances of them continuing a successful run seems strong, as seven of their remaining twelve are against current bottom-eight sides and three of those against bottom four clubs.
The Panthers play all of the bottom four teams at home and away this season. The Dogs play each of those teams once.
To compare further, the Dogs have played six of the top-six clubs so far this season. By losing four of them and winning twice by a field goal, I still have some doubts about them, particularly on last plays in defence. The Dogs are contenders for minor premiership honours, but this lopsided draw means they have only one match against bottom-four clubs remaining, and eleven against the contenders and top-six teams.
The Roosters and Rabbits look to be in strong positions with decent draws. I could see the Roosters getting on a massive roll again, and Souths will need to maintain without some important players for a while, but I still like their chances of a grand final appearance.
Manly are now faced with only four of twelve matches at home and have trips to Auckland, the Gold Coast and Townsville.
I’m predicting it will stay almost the same in the top eight, with North Queensland for Parramatta. The top four will change for sure – Dogs and Panthers look prone to me.
And the Roosters may not lose another match this season.
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