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Your AFL team's run home: Part 2

Roar Guru
10th July, 2014
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Having assessed the current top eight in Part 1, let’s look at the run home for the rest of the AFL’s teams for season 2014.

Here is the bottom ten and my prediction of where they will finish at season’s end.

Adelaide Crows
Currently ninth (8-7, 32 competition points, 110 per cent)
Matches to play: Hawthorn (Oval), Collingwood (MCG), West Coast Eagles (Oval), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Richmond (Oval), North Melbourne (BA), St Kilda (Oval)

Of the teams currently outside the top eight, the Adelaide Crows are in the strongest position to break into the eight at the expense of any of the teams just above them on the ladder, most likely the Gold Coast Suns.

The Crows are in a rich vein of form at the moment, having won three of their last four matches, including claiming the scalp of then top-placed Port Adelaide in Round 15. Additionally, their percentage received a boost thanks to a 68-point win over GWS in their last match.

This Friday night will pose the biggest challenge of all, as they welcome reigning premiers Hawthorn to the Adelaide Oval. The Hawks are ravaged by injuries and defender Brian Lake is suspended.

They will also face Collingwood for a second time in the season, and welcome non-top eight teams the West Coast Eagles, Richmond and last-placed St Kilda to the City of Churches in their run home.

If they take advantage of their run home, the Crows will land the last place in the eight. A home elimination final is also very likely, but the Crows would have to win all seven of their remainders, and hope for other results to go their way.

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Predicted finish: 8th

Essendon
Currently 10th (8-7, 36 competition points, 104.8 per cent)
Matches to play: Collingwood (MCG), Western Bulldogs (ES), Sydney Swans (SCG), Richmond (MCG), West Coast Eagles (ES), Gold Coast Suns (ES), Carlton (MCG)

It has been a testing season for Essendon so far but their finals chances received a boost when they upset top-four side Port Adelaide at the Oval last week.

But even with six of their seven remainders in Melbourne, it might not be enough for them to break into the top eight. They face Collingwood at the MCG this weekend, and also have to travel to Sydney to meet the Swans in Round 19.

Brendon Goddard will miss the match against the Pies due to suspension, while Jobe Watson is no certainty to return again in 2014. Both of those could conspire against the Bombers in their bid to make the finals.

Predicted finish: 10th

West Coast Eagles
Currently 11th (6-9, 24 competition points, 107.7per cent)
Matches to play: Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Richmond (PS), Adelaide Crows (Oval), Collingwood (PS), Essendon (ES), Melbourne (PS), Gold Coast Suns (MS)

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It hasn’t been the debut season coach Adam Simpson would have hoped for, with injuries and the effective retirement of captain Darren Glass conspiring against them as they sit in 11th on the ladder.

Midfielder Matt Rosa will miss the remainder of the season due to a pectoral injury, while Josh Kennedy will be suspended from their away trip to Brisbane following the first quarter incident involving the Sydney Swans’ Zak Jones last week.

Last week’s 28-point loss to the Swans at home has all but ended their finals chances, but they can salvage something from a testing season with only two top-eight sides to face in the final seven rounds.

Their run home is bookended with trips to Queensland to face the Lions and Gold Coast Suns, while they must also travel to Adelaide for their only meeting with the Crows this season, and to Melbourne to face an equally desperate Essendon.

The only other top eight side the Eagles will have to face is Collingwood, though they will have the advantage of hosting them at home. But will that, plus five matches against teams outside the eight, help the Eagles finish 2014 on a high?

Predicted finish: 11th

Richmond
Currently 12th (5-10, 20 competition points, 98.6 per cent)
Matches to play: Port Adelaide (ES), West Coast Eagles (PS), GWS Giants (MCG), Essendon (MCG), Adelaide Crows (Oval), St Kilda (MCG), Sydney Swans (ANZ)

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It has been a very disappointing season for Richmond so far but they have gained some form with victories over St Kilda and the Brisbane Lions. It marked the first time this season that they have won consecutive matches, and they might get a chance to further extend it when they host an out-of-form Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium this Sunday.

In stark contrast to the Tigers’ recent form, Port enter this match on the back of consecutive losses for the first time this season, having lost to the Adelaide Crows and Essendon at home.

The Tigers will also have to face the West Coast Eagles, Adelaide and the Sydney Swans interstate, but will have the luxury of boosting their percentage against GWS, the team they beat by 113 points in Round 10, at home in Round 19.

It seems though that the Tigers can’t wait for this season to end; it could also mean the end of Damien Hardwick’s tenure at the club if they cannot at least finish this season on a positive note.

Predicted finish: 12th

Carlton
Currently 13th (5-10, 20 competition points, 93.6 per cent)
Matches to play: Sydney Swans (SCG), North Melbourne (ES), Fremantle (PS), Gold Coast Suns (ES), Geelong Cats (ES), Port Adelaide (Oval), Essendon (MCG)

Many have argued that Carlton have actually gone backwards under the coaching of Mick Malthouse, who was expected by many to lead the club back up the ladder after Brett Ratten was sacked at the end of 2012.

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Their season could get worse when they travel to Sydney for the second time in three weeks, this time to take on the Swans at the SCG. That’s only the beginning of a six-match stretch in which they will face teams currently in the eight. They also have to travel to Perth for a Thursday night meeting with Fremantle, and to Adelaide for the clash with Port on a Friday night.

Their season will end with a rematch from Round 3 against Essendon, the 81-point drubbing setting the tone for Carlton’s season.

I cannot see Carlton winning another match for the rest of the season.

Predicted finish: 14th

Western Bulldogs
Currently 14th (5-10, 20 competition points, 82.3 per cent)
Matches to play: Gold Coast Suns (CAZ), Essendon (ES), Hawthorn (Aurora), St Kilda (ES), North Melbourne (ES), Sydney Swans (ES), GWS Giants (ES)

Three seasons into the Brendan McCartney era and the Western Bulldogs haven’t made any progress. However, they showed some glimpses of what their fans can expect in the near future, when Marcus Bontempelli was nominated for the Rising Star for his role in their upset victory over Collingwood in Round 13.

The Bulldogs should aim to win at least one or two of their remaining seven matches, of which five are at Etihad Stadium, with the other two being interstate trips to Cairns and Launceston for matches against the Gold Coast Suns and Hawthorn respectively.

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The matches against St Kilda and GWS appear winnable, but not so the match against the Sydney Swans in the penultimate round of the season. Question marks hover over the remaining five, though.

Predicted finish: 13th

Greater Western Sydney Giants
Currently 15th (4-11, 16 competition points, 74.8per cent)
Matches to play: Fremantle (PS), Geelong Cats (SPO), Richmond (MCG), North Melbourne (STO), Melbourne (MCG), Collingwood (SPO), Western Bulldogs (ES)

Regardless of how the Giants eventually fare for the rest of this season, it has already proven to be the club’s most successful season in their three-year existence.

After a competitive month in which they pushed Hawthorn and Essendon to the limit, and defeated the Brisbane Lions and Carlton for consecutive victories, the club fell backwards with disappointing losses to the Sydney Swans and Adelaide in the past fortnight.

It could get very ugly this weekend when they cross the Nullarbor for a second time this season to play Fremantle on Sunday. The Giants have never enjoyed playing the Dockers, let alone in Perth, with the smallest losing margin being 95 points.

The Giants have had to contend with an overloaded travel schedule this year and it is clearly taking its toll on the younger players. With the exception of their win over the Brisbane Lions in Brisbane, and narrow losses to St Kilda and Hawthorn in Melbourne, the third-year club have struggled on the road.

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Their remaining home matches are against sides currently in the eight, with the Geelong Cats and Collingwood in Sydney, as well as North Melbourne in Canberra. They will get the chance to redeem themselves against Richmond at the MCG, and the match against Melbourne at the same venue a fortnight later appears winnable.

Their season will conclude with a return match against the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium, another match the Giants should aim to win. The big question will be whether they can avoid the wooden spoon for the third consecutive year.

It could all come down to percentage, given only Melbourne, Brisbane and St Kilda are below them on the ladder, with the former two to meet in Round 19.

Predicted finish: 17th

Melbourne
Currently 16th (4-11, 16 competition points, 74.7 per cent)
Matches to play: Geelong Cats (MCG), Port Adelaide (Oval), Brisbane Lions (ES), Hawthorn (MCG), GWS Giants (MCG), West Coast Eagles (PS), North Melbourne (ES)

Looking from the outside in, you would think that Melbourne have suffered yet another miserable season, but it’s not that bad.

Despite losing by 63 points to Fremantle last week, the Dees avoided conceding the ton for only the third time this year, but their attack was just as poor and that contributed to the heavy loss.

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It’s set to be a nightmare finish to Paul Roos’ first season at the helm of the Dees, who have otherwise improved remarkably from the ill-fated Mark Neeld (and, to a lesser extent, Neil Craig) era in which they suffered numerous heavy defeats.

From their seven remaining matches, they play only three non top-eight sides, but must travel to Perth for their showdown against the West Coast Eagles in the penultimate round. They do, however, host the Lions and Giants at home.

The match against the Lions looms as an important one that could determine which of the two teams finishes lower on the ladder. The Dees haven’t won at Docklands for almost seven years, so that marks the best chance for the club to end its drought there.

They will also have their Round 3 loss to the Giants in their minds when they meet again in Round 21. The Dees will have the advantage of being the home team in their bid to avoid becoming the first team to lose to the Giants three times.

Again it will come down to percentage to determine where Melbourne finish this season.

Predicted finish: 16th

Brisbane Lions
Currently 17th (4-11, 16 competition points, 62.3 per cent)
Matches to play: West Coast Eagles (Gabba), Gold Coast Suns (Gabba), Melbourne (ES), Adelaide (Gabba), Collingwood (MCG), Fremantle (Gabba), Geelong (SS)

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It has been a difficult season for the Brisbane Lions on and off the field as they look to create a successful future under the coaching of Justin Leppitsch.

Jonathan Brown’s retirement last month marked the end of an era for the club, as he was the last remaining player from the 2001, 2002 and 2003 premiership sides.

On the field, the Lions have won only four matches, with their biggest winning margin being by eight points against the Western Bulldogs in Round 12.

While they are able to win the tight ones, the margin in most of their losses have been abysmal, none more so than the 113-point thrashing they copped from Port Adelaide at the Oval in Round 4.

Out of the Lions’ seven remaining matches, four are at the Gabba, while they must also travel to Melbourne for matches against Melbourne, Collingwood, and Geelong at Simonds Stadium.

The Lions should aim to win at least one or two of those matches, with the Round 19 match against Melbourne winnable. That alone could decide where the club finishes at the end of the season.

Predicted finish: 15th

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St Kilda
Currently last (3-12, 12 competition points, 58.1 per cent)
Matches to play: North Melbourne (BA), Fremantle (ES), Gold Coast Suns (MS), Western Bulldogs (ES), Sydney Swans (SCG), Richmond (MCG), Adelaide (Oval)

Not surprisingly, it has been a difficult first season for St Kilda under Alan Richardson, as they face the wooden spoon.

After winning three of their first five matches of the season, including an impressive 16-point win over Essendon in Round 5, the Saints are winless since Easter and things don’t appear to be improving in the short term.

The Saints must travel interstate four times in the final seven rounds, including south to Hobart to face the Roos, as well as north to the Gold Coast and Sydney to face the Suns and Swans in Rounds 19 and 21.

They also have to travel to Adelaide for a second time this season to face the Crows, who are still heavily pursuing a place in the finals.

There is only one match the Saints appear capable of winning, their Round 20 match against the Western Bulldogs. They would have to win by a huge margin, and hope that the GWS Giants drop all seven of their remainders, if they are to avoid claiming a record 27th wooden spoon (and first since 2000) on percentage.

Can they do it? Not on the basis of current form.

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Predicted finish: last.

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