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An intriguing and exciting match up awaits us to decide this year’s Super Rugby competition. Already many theories and statistics have been thrown about discussing who will be the eventual champion.
Let me throw in my two cents.
Due to the vagaries of the tournament, our finalists have not played one another this year, further adding to the intrigue of the match-up and robbing us of some sort of form guide. Perhaps not that relevant for predicting a result, but a useful indicator nonetheless.
Travel should not be a factor in this match as the Crusaders have only needed to make the trip from New Zealand. In finishing second, they also had the benefit of a week off.
A fair bit has been made of the Crusaders set piece and that it is stronger than the Waratahs.
I tend to agree with this, however I do expect the Waratahs scrum will be good enough to gain parity.
The lineout however must be a concern for the Waratahs, with theirs being one of the worst statistically and the Crusaders being one of the best. The Crusaders also average 2.4 lineout steals a match, making the lineout an obvious area to attack.
Throwing in another stat, the Crusaders have scored the most tries from first phase play. It’s not too hard to estimate where the Crusaders may target the Waratahs.
In saying that, while the Waratahs have been celebrated for their attacking and attractive play this year, it is their defence which I have found the most impressive.
It has been extremely physical, often knocking their opponents backwards and as evidenced against the Brumbies in their semi-final, it is resilient and hard working.
The Waratahs did however concede a number of penalties in that match. I doubt very much that the Crusaders would pass up the same opportunities as the Brumbies did in the recent semi-final, but I do not think the Waratahs will be that bothered if the Crusaders do tick the board over in threes.
While this obviously helps build momentum and scoreboard pressure, this Waratahs team seems to be in a very comfortable place. They have full confidence in their game plan and systems and given their proven potency on attack, will be near impossible to keep out.
The Crusaders will need to score tries if they want to win this match.
I expect the Crusaders to look for territory and to put the ball into touch as often as possible to minimise the potent counterattacking abilities of the Waratahs. The Crusaders certainly have the ability with Dan Carter and Israel Dagg to execute such a plan but once there, can they crack this Waratahs defence?
One possible area to target may be in behind the line as I cannot remember any teams really testing the Waratahs out there. I would expect to see a few Carter chips over the line and perhaps some inside balls to test this out and try and break their structure down.
I also felt the Waratahs were poor at times in exiting from their 22 against the Brumbies and this is another area the Crusaders may be able to exploit.
The Crusaders own discipline will also need to be addressed, as they too were on the wrong side of the penalty count in their own semi-final against the Sharks.
Gifting the Waratahs easy field position and opportunities would be a mistake.
I have touched on the Waratahs physicality in defence and the same should be applied to the breakdown, where the Crusaders will need to match fire with fire.
I don’t see this is an issue for the tight five but I do wonder if the Crusaders should look to start Jordan Taufua and switch Richie McCaw to openside.
The loose forward unit performed very well against the Sharks on the weekend, but I think Taufua’s inclusion over Matt Todd may be a good move due to the extra physicality he can bring both in defence and with ball in hand when up against the aggressive Waratahs forwards.
Experience is another point that has been raised as a factor. This is in the Crusaders favour, with five members of the current squad having won a Super title in 2008 against the Waratahs and many more having experienced success at international level.
However, it should also be noted that the Waratahs have six current squad members involved in that 2008 final. And with a number of current Wallabies, they should still be up to handling the occasion.
If the game is on the line in the dying stages, that experience will be a crucial advantage. What the Crusaders cannot afford is to allow the Waratahs to get off to a fast start.
The Crusaders’ best chance is to control the pace of the game and keep the Waratahs camped down in their half. If they are forced into playing catch up early on, that would open the game right up and play directly into the Waratahs hands.
I do not think the Crusaders have the arsenal to compete in this manner. But then, who really knows what will transpire?
This match shapes up as one of the best deciders in Super Rugby history. I for one cannot wait.
Based on form, home ground advantage and the strike power the Waratahs possess, I would have to tip them to win this final and secure their maiden Super Rugby title – but only by a nose.
In saying that, if there is one team capable of causing an upset away, it is the Crusaders and as a Kiwi I certainly hope that will be the case.
Either way, a cracking finale it should be.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.